Disco-lemonade

yea sorry crashed right when i posted try this one http://surfchex.com/cams/carolina-beach-web-cam/ hopefully the oceanic's cam will be back on soon

Water level at wrightesville beach is getting higher, waves are looking pretty robust. http://surfchex.com/

My girl friend just left and is coming to stay here, her grandparents are staying in wilmington, one of which is on an oxygen tank and has no generator. They refuse to leave, personally I am very fearful for their lives.

This may be the nuttiest gfs run I have ever seen

Yea this is bad, and it's not like usual where we get a sheared out destabilized mess. This is something extraordinary

Please refer to the NHC forecast track cone

You're right I've been so concerned about ILM that I haven't really given much consideration to MBY...

Agreed I'm down there every other week, so many great friends in the path of this, has me very worried.

My concern is if this hits cat 4 people aren't going to know what to expect.

I'll tell you, remember hurricane mathew a few years back? I was living in wilminton at the time, only a cat 1 (first hurricane I'd experienced), but when you see long leaf pines bending in ways they shouldnt over someones house, knowing they could snap at any moment will scare the bajeebus outta you. And the noise of it all I'll never forget... Then driving back through lumberton the amount of tree damage was surprising for how far in land they were. Straight line winds can maximize gust potential very quickly.

I agree, Florence may be the sum of all fears... I don't understand those dudes up in maryland rooting for it to go up the Chesapeake, makes me wonder, do they even get it?

Here, go ahead and see what kind of storm surge could be expected from a cat 2 on the outer banks and surrounding locations. http://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=d9ed7904dbec441a9c4dd7b277935fad&entry=1

DT in a recent video mentioned how the setup is similar to isabel so i decided to bring up an upper air map for comparisons sake. (hopefully it isnt a massive image) Florence at roughly the same location on the GEFS ensembles, notice the high over the NE. That's what will likely block Florence from recurving early enough to recurve OTS without affecting land. Over the next few days we need to watch very closely how the models place that ridge. Personally I believe Florence will, at the very least, get close. I really hope the cool water and dry air prevents strengthening because OBX may experience hurricane force conditions.

Yep definitely matches my numbers, can't complain considering 12 is twice our yearly average... but imagine what couldve been if feb hadnt sucked