Disco-lemonade

yea sorry crashed right when i posted try this one http://surfchex.com/cams/carolina-beach-web-cam/ hopefully the oceanic's cam will be back on soon

Water level at wrightesville beach is getting higher, waves are looking pretty robust. http://surfchex.com/

My girl friend just left and is coming to stay here, her grandparents are staying in wilmington, one of which is on an oxygen tank and has no generator. They refuse to leave, personally I am very fearful for their lives.

This may be the nuttiest gfs run I have ever seen

Yea this is bad, and it's not like usual where we get a sheared out destabilized mess. This is something extraordinary

Please refer to the NHC forecast track cone

You're right I've been so concerned about ILM that I haven't really given much consideration to MBY...

Agreed I'm down there every other week, so many great friends in the path of this, has me very worried.

My concern is if this hits cat 4 people aren't going to know what to expect.

I'll tell you, remember hurricane mathew a few years back? I was living in wilminton at the time, only a cat 1 (first hurricane I'd experienced), but when you see long leaf pines bending in ways they shouldnt over someones house, knowing they could snap at any moment will scare the bajeebus outta you. And the noise of it all I'll never forget... Then driving back through lumberton the amount of tree damage was surprising for how far in land they were. Straight line winds can maximize gust potential very quickly.

I agree, Florence may be the sum of all fears... I don't understand those dudes up in maryland rooting for it to go up the Chesapeake, makes me wonder, do they even get it?

Here, go ahead and see what kind of storm surge could be expected from a cat 2 on the outer banks and surrounding locations. http://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=d9ed7904dbec441a9c4dd7b277935fad&entry=1

DT in a recent video mentioned how the setup is similar to isabel so i decided to bring up an upper air map for comparisons sake. (hopefully it isnt a massive image) Florence at roughly the same location on the GEFS ensembles, notice the high over the NE. That's what will likely block Florence from recurving early enough to recurve OTS without affecting land. Over the next few days we need to watch very closely how the models place that ridge. Personally I believe Florence will, at the very least, get close. I really hope the cool water and dry air prevents strengthening because OBX may experience hurricane force conditions.

Yep definitely matches my numbers, can't complain considering 12 is twice our yearly average... but imagine what couldve been if feb hadnt sucked

agreed its impossible to say what we will be seeing at 144 hrs a week from now... last couple of weeks haven't been great but we've made it through plenty worse in the last 7 years if we could just get a little nudge into phase 8 (still very possible) I'd bet someone within the climo favored regions of the SE will see a nice little closer to winter the nao really is killing us but ensembles are hinting maybe we will see it go neutral as we get into mid feb, as we saw in early jan neutral is leaps and bounds better than raging positive this would be supported by the mjo nearing phase 8 of course the modeling looks horrid right now, but when looking beyond 144 hrs remember verification scores

get ready for the pollen storms! I expect multiple "yellow outs" this year, perhaps even 200m:1 ratios

models can hardly get 144 hr leads right! climo climo climo... march will save us!

for nc, need to see the gfs continue to loose the gl influence the more high pressure we can get up there the better

this actually looks very promising. for rdu vast majority of gefs members track a low in a much more favorable position, more like the canadian

gotta wait till we get into nam range, then the globals will all start playing catch up

total precip out into fantasy and it looks good, max in the south (active) min in the northern midwest (arctic highs), I'd say at this juncture it looks like weve got a nice shot at some snow in the south before winter is over however, that max west of the apps indicates plenty of runners in there so everybody cant always win

in short range news look at how the ensembles have increased totals on this weekends rain storm... some what of a theme this winter... most winters actually

lets check the gfs block-o-scope 3000 well the pna and ao sure look great but dang that nao! though we didnt have the nao on our side earlier in the month either see the ensembles shortly