DixieBlizzard Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Hope so! MeteoStar is only providing me with .07. Not much, so it will have to go a long way These types of storms are just killer. It is so easy to be watching someone close by get the storm of their lives, while you get nothing. I stilll suffer all the time over 73, and this just brings it back in my face, lol. I am trying to rest easy in the idea the weather couldn't ball kick me again...I'm an old man..and I've been good, lol. I deserve what Macon got, not another slap down! I'm putting my eggs in Goofy's basket. I've watched intently all week, and the gfs has slowly trended in my direction better and better. I think 0z tonight will tell the tale. T ...and to top that off for you Tony, I was seriously considering getting you an airline ticket to Mobile. That could be home for Sleet-Fest 2014 if some of the models are right! Here's hoping for a good NW trend for you my friend. PS...Michelle, that's awesome!! I hope you get it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 15z SREF 24 hour probabilities of 1+ inch of snow valid thru 4am Wed, run still coming in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 IMO, for my viewing area only, it appears we have as follows:12z NAM 8-12"12z GFS 4-6"12z EURO 2"nice spread..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 15z SREF probabilities of 24 hour 1+ inches of snow, through 4pm Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 As mentioned above, 15z SREF coming in, wetter than 9z (second map below), same period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Same run 15z SREF thru 1am Thursday, 24 hour probabilities of 6+ inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 As mentioned above, 15z SREF coming in, wetter than 9z (second map below), same period. sref15z.JPG 9zsref.JPG Looks like the far western outliers have shifted in line with the other members. Looks like a pretty good consensus. Now it's time to nail down the details. I'm thinking Fayetteville may be the sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flotownsc Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Wilmington just raised their flag! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 SREF went down in precip totals for MBY. Looks like it's starting to fall in line with the GFS, Euro and NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 As mentioned above, 15z SREF coming in, wetter than 9z (second map below), same period. Slightly drier for North Georgia, however. Let's see what the 18z NAM has in store. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Looks like the far western outliers have shifted in line with the other members. Looks like a pretty good consensus. Now it's time to nail down the details. I'm thinking Fayetteville may be the sweet spot.Looks like the SREF came west for you and I from 9z to me. I do think somewhere around I-95 will get hammered.EDIT: Whoops, I looked at the maps backwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 SREF went down in precip totals for MBY. Looks like it's starting to fall in line with the GFS, Euro and NAM. Wow, looks pretty solid from CAE to FLO to FAY. Man, just missing it by 100-150 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Looks like the SREF came west for you and I from 9z to me. I do think somewhere around I-95 will get hammered. We are going to be right on the fringe,PGV looks to jackpot again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 9z sref this shows snow in the mtns. but nothing from gsp yet. not even a mention. are they waiting until monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Winter Storm Watches now up for SE half of S.C. including Columbia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 this shows snow in the mtns. but nothing from gsp yet. not even a mention. are they waiting until monday. That's previous run with no support from other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 IMO, for my viewing area only, it appears we have as follows: 12z NAM 8-12" 12z GFS 4-6" 12z EURO 2" nice spread..lol I'm about the same way here... I put together a 1st Call Map that was on the lower end of possible totals. My reasoning for being so conservative? There's still the chance this goes just southeast of my area. And, to be honest, I'd rather bust low initially than bust too high. I can always up those totals as the event gets closer. That said, have you checked out the latest RPM!? It basically keeps it all south of us and is a FL Panhandle/South Georgia/Coast Carolinas hit. That's another reason why I'm going conservative on my first call map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Winter Storm Watches now up for SE half of S.C. including Columbia. Based on area, ~2/3 rds of the state of SC is now under a watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 It sure is. So far the SREF has been moving the line into the NW. 9z SREF >0.25" precip probabilities. Slowly increasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Interesting to compare the 12z NAM to the latest RAP for the position of the two main features. 18z RAP has the southern energy in about the same place, but has the northern energy significantly east of the 12z NAM's 24 hour position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Actually, it's about 59 percent. Based on area, ~2/3 rds of the state of SC is now under a watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I'm still holding on to hope for the Atlanta region. The southern ATL metro region still might do relatively well if it does anymore northern trends. The latest SREF model puts me right on the .25-.50 line. Nvm, it looks worse for us lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Looks like the SREF came west for you and I from 9z to me. I do think somewhere around I-95 will get hammered. It sure is. So far the SREF has been moving the line into the NW. Sorry gentlemen, but the 15z SREF is much drier for the Triad, Charlotte and mountain regions than the 9z. Here is the 9z: And here is the new 15z: I have a feeling that the members that were showing big hits for Hickory, Charlotte, Greensboro, etc.. have shifted east resulting in the 15z map. Still a little time for trending NW if the upper air features act accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 We are going to be right on the fringe,PGV looks to jackpot again. That and Fayetteville to Goldsboro. We could use a 50 mile shift nw, that's all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Oh, Packfan, you're right. I looked at the maps backwards that WeatherNC posted, LOL. Oh, well. Now we await the NAM... I think we are both going to be on the outside looking in with this one, but you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Notice the little bump in the precip right off and around LA? Just looks different like a low is trying to form? Has more concentration and orients the whe precip look slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Euro EPS mean precip NW of Op, gets 0.25" line to RDU. Looks like .1" to GSO/CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Euro EPS mean precip NW of Op, gets 0.25" line to RDU. Looks like .1" to GSO/CLT. That's good news for us interior folks. Seems to line up with the latest SREF too. Time to start refining the details on this one soon. Looks like major shifting is almost over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 WPC prob maps updated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 WPC prob maps updated day3_psnow_gt_04.gif day3_psnow_gt_08.gif Not sure I like being under that probability of having more than 4" haha! PS: FFC will issue Winter Storm WATCHES soon... For who, I'm not sure yet. PSS: Tallahassee has already issued theirs for south GA/SE AL/Parts of FL panhandle for possibility of up to 0.2" of freezing rain followed by up to 0.5" of snow/sleet. Fun times. EDIT: Here's the AFD from FFC HAVE ISSUED WSW FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF I20 NOT INCLUDING THE CORE METRO ATL COUNTIES BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH LATER RUNS FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY OR WSW UPGRADE DEPENDING ON TRENDS. FOR THE WSW AREAS...NORTHERN FRINGE IS THE ONLY AREA IN QUESTION ON TOTAL AMOUNTS AS PRECIP SHIELD APPEARS TO BE MUCH LIGHTER...HOWEVER..AM CERTAIN THAT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WATCH AREA WILL BE ALL SNOW FROM ONSET TO FINISH. BOTH GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS CLEAR ON ALL SNOW WITH SATURATION/ONSET OCCURRING AROUND 18Z TUES AND LASTING UNTIL ABOUT 12Z WEDNESDAY...WITH BEST OMEGA FIELDS LINING UP AFTER 00Z WED THROUGH AROUND 09Z WED. FROM CSG TO MCN TO SANDERSVILLE...PRECIP MAY BEGIN AS A FZRA OR SLEET TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING OVER A SNOW SLEET MIX IN THE EARLY EVENING THEN ALL SNOW BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LINE ATTM ALSO APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE MOST SNOW ACCUM BUT THAT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SHORT WAVE AND HOW LONG THE TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW TAKES. AREAS FROM AMERICUS TO CORDELE TO DUBLIN TO VIDALIA WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY A FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIX. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS AREA CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE ICE STORM CONDITIONS AND UPWARDS OF 0.5 INCHES OR MORE ICE ACCUMULATION. MODEL SOUNDINGS IN THAT REGION ARE CERTAINLY SHOWING 5 DEG C WARM NOSE WITH STRONG ENOUGH COLD INVERSION AND SURFACE TEMPS TO WARRANT FZRA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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