packfan98 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 here's where the s/w max appears to be at 10:30 per WV. I think a general 1-3 across central/eastern NC is a good bet. more out towards newport news/ va beach/northeast nc due to coastal enhancement. That's interesting. It looks like the s/w is about 30-40 miles west and further south than the depictions on the RAP. Don't know if it will translate to anything later. Keep digging!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I find it interesting that so many of the short term models are bringing a significant line of precip. southeast from north of the triad down through the sandhills and curving through the coastal plain. I guess its because of the clipper-system digging so much, but I don't think I've seen anything like this before. Anyway, I'm starting to think James might be right with the idea of thundersnow putting down a quick 1/2-1 inch in a 15-30 minute time period this evening. The returns being depicted are stronger than what they are showing for the midatlantic and we will be so much closer to the bundled energy. Interesting at least. This would be amazing. Naturally, being in the Sandhills, this is the one I am hoping comes to fruition... Although I do have to drive at 1AM tonight to pick up my girlfriend from work, so that may be a bit tricky... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 CHS had thundersnow during that crazy storm a couple days before Thanksgiving in 2006 and I believe they had some in the 2/12/10 storm. No snow has fallen here since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 This is turning into a much later event than I was expecting based on yesterdays guidance. I am in stuart va today and i was expecting cloudy, cold and a snow shower by noon. Instead i have sunny, no wind, and fairly tolerable temps in the high 30's. I see the showers on radar to the NW but they have been stuck there for hours. Really hoping the models are not overdoing the southern trajectory! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 here's where the s/w max appears to be at 10:30 per WV. I think a general 1-3 across central/eastern NC is a good bet. more out towards newport news/ va beach/northeast nc due to coastal enhancement. That looks about right. In fact looking at the loop it appears to be tightening up some so may not be diving too much more before making a turn to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Sunny, windy and 55 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 This is turning into a much later event than I was expecting based on yesterdays guidance. I am in stuart va today and i was expecting cloudy, cold and a snow shower by noon. Instead i have sunny, no wind, and fairly tolerable temps in the high 30's. I see the showers on radar to the NW but they have been stuck there for hours. Really hoping the models are not overdoing the southern trajectory! Yep, I'm 15mi to your E and this was certainly not what I was expecting. Very poorly modeled thus far. It's behaving like a textbook clipper and nothing more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 HRRR and RAP models are ticking a bit SW with the death band that drops through. Also looks a bit stronger and wetter. Looks like it might drop through the Triad proper before swinging through the sandhills. Looks like just north of the Triad gets the best of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Low cloud deck just came into view over the mountain. Dark grey clouds now rolling in. Fingers crossed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Sunny and 53, nice day for a flizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 WRF ensembles. Never seen this image before, but it matches up with the other short-term modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 That's interesting. It looks like the s/w is about 30-40 miles west and further south than the depictions on the RAP. Don't know if it will translate to anything later. Keep digging!!! That appears to be the trend since last night. It's a good trend, ideally for clippers, we want it to be in central/northern SC, if you're in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 That appears to be the trend since last night. It's a good trend, ideally for clippers, we want it to be in central/northern SC, if you're in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 That appears to be the trend since last night. It's a good trend, ideally for clippers, we want it to be in central/northern SC, if you're in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 WRF ensembles. Never seen this image before, but it matches up with the other short-term modeling. I'll take member # 3. But for me,you and jburns any of them would be welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Hky is there any hope left for the western piedmont?? Hickory Shelby Lincolnton?? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Hky is there any hope left for the western piedmont?? Hickory Shelby Lincolnton?? Thanks I'm not HkyWx, but I do live there. I think we're pretty much guaranteed to be on the outside looking in on this event. Our only hope would be for the shortwave to dig much deeper than currently modeled and go negative tilt or something. Basically, we need the impossible to occur. Thus, keep expecting nothing; then, anything that does show up will be a welcome surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Hky is there any hope left for the western piedmont?? Hickory Shelby Lincolnton?? Thanks The trough axis isn't good for that area, it doesn't start to round the trough until it get's further east, meaning there isn't any easterly component that far west for moisture convergence/transport. that allows downsloping to take over. i think flurries/squalls are obviously possible, but the best snows will probably be over NE NC. i'm not confident even in raleigh i'll see too much, due to the squally nature of clippers. it's hit or miss for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 WRF ensembles. Never seen this image before, but it matches up with the other short-term modeling. Dang, they run from flurries to 3 inches around here. So just shrug your shoulders and say an inch. Even this close, some folks are going to be surprised, and other disappointed. Dang clippers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 vort getting more defined on wvloop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 vort getting more defined on wvloop. And it is projected to stay stronger and more defined as one piece of energy longer. Looks like about a 15 mile shift south as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 12 GFS snow totals(as stated before I'll take my 1" and run). http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=01&model_dd=21&model_init_hh=12&fhour=21¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCStateMMY Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 WRF ensembles. Never seen this image before, but it matches up with the other short-term modeling. That hole in the region between KRDU and KRWI is getting me worried. Bitter pill if areas surrounding me see at least an inch and I am stuck with glorified frost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 man i wish i was out towards far ne nc, i think that area is really going to get hit good tonight. the coastal low will set up a nice band later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 12 GFS snow totals(as stated before I'll take my 1" and run). http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=01&model_dd=21&model_init_hh=12&fhour=21¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false We'll get at least 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 To the guy with the WRF ensemble image... Where did that come from? That intrigues me to make a script to do that in Grads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Wow it is absolutely pouring down the darn snow right now as that little line of heavier precip is moving thru temp has responded by going from 36 and change to 34.9 it's trying like hell to stick on the driveway right now huge dendrites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Issues I see for the coastal plain are two fold, one, where does any enhanced banding setup, and two, how much falls before changeover. GFS painted almost a quarter inch here, around half is rain though. 5-7 pm is the likely transition time, if we can switchover closer to 5 I will feel better, 7 not so much. Toasty 55 ATM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I'll take member # 3. But for me,you and jburns any of them would be welcome. and me LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Buddy1987, on 21 Jan 2014 - 12:15 PM, said:Wow it is absolutely pouring down the darn snow right now as that little line of heavier precip is moving thru temp has responded by going from 36 and change to 34.9 it's trying like hell to stick on the driveway right now huge dendrites Seeing a flurry or two right now as I type this. Must be headed this way. You're out in the county correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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