FLweather Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Check out the convection firing in the GOM. You can see the vort swinging SE through NW TN as well. Wont be long before the VA boys on here start reporting snow flying Sure is... hopefully it won't kill any moisture on the backside of the vort and 850 low. Which looking at the short range models probably won't have much effect on us since NC/VA will be in the cold sector. But there is a trend it appears right now on the short range to possibly be a tad wetter than the globals have been showing. I know NWS for the most part going a dusting(west) to 2 inches east. Maybe a good widespread 1-4" snowfall in the makings for later this afternoon into tonight. FWIW. HRRR only goes out to 15 hours but does show .1-.25" along and south of the VA border with a couple pockets of .25"+ along the immediate border and north. Shows potential for flakes for Hickory east and heavier as you go east. But the catch is.. the snow shadow is present from Mt Airy south to the western portions of the Hickory area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Need cloud cover soon to hold down temps not a cloud in the sky on the way into work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Clouding up quickly here SE of CLT- 35.9F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I hope Sandhills is up to see this change in events from yesterday. Conditions in FAY should get interesting this afternoon for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Need cloud cover soon to hold down temps not a cloud in the sky on the way into work. I wouldn't worry too much about temps today. As RAH stated: * TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD TODAY... BUT FALL RAPIDLY INTO THE LOWER 30S AS THE PRECIPITATION FALLS LATER TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE 20S THIS EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 35 and cloudy here as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I wouldn't worry too much about temps today. As RAH stated: * TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD TODAY... BUT FALL RAPIDLY INTO THE LOWER 30S AS THE PRECIPITATION FALLS LATER TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE 20S THIS EVENING. HRRR is a problem. It has plenty of precip for Central North Carolina and Eastern NC, but surface temps are still well in the 40s. RAP is completely different with respect to temperatures. You guys better have some pictures or video of the snow and thundersnow. :D Looking forward to my 40mph gusts this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 36.1 this morning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Is it snowing Disc? Or is that virga near Roanoke? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 metalicwx366, on 21 Jan 2014 - 07:30 AM, said:Is it snowing Disc? Or is that virga near Roanoke? Heavy virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Lol! 30+DBZ returns and nothing. Heavy virga indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Not feeling too confident about Charlotte's chances based on the RAP. Hope to see some flurries today, that should at least be fun. Sitting at 41 and starting to get cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Robert just posted this on FB.... WxSouth After looking at RAP, NAM and GFS snow forecasts I'm probably overdone on my snow amounts in Lynchburg area and most of southern, central VA. Unless that upper system coming through NC this afternoon can really fill in the gap in southern , western VA this afternoon. Looks disorganized right now on the models, and part of central, northeast NC may end up with more snow than say LYH or DAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Little sleet rain mix very, very light also the sun is half out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I wouldn't worry too much about temps today. As RAH stated: * TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD TODAY... BUT FALL RAPIDLY INTO THE LOWER 30S AS THE PRECIPITATION FALLS LATER TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE 20S THIS EVENING. I know its just the lower off we start the less melting at the surface we will have.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Parachute flakes coming down good here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Flakeage! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Robert just posted this on FB.... WxSouth After looking at RAP, NAM and GFS snow forecasts I'm probably overdone on my snow amounts in Lynchburg area and most of southern, central VA. Unless that upper system coming through NC this afternoon can really fill in the gap in southern , western VA this afternoon. Looks disorganized right now on the models, and part of central, northeast NC may end up with more snow than say LYH or DAN That sounds great for us, but we will have to worry about where that band sets up. RAH stated in their discussion that we were in the "Sweet Spot". That actually scares me because that sweet spot can move...or not even develop. **but still liking our chances. Just typical of most our winter events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Robert just posted this on FB.... WxSouth After looking at RAP, NAM and GFS snow forecasts I'm probably overdone on my snow amounts in Lynchburg area and most of southern, central VA. Unless that upper system coming through NC this afternoon can really fill in the gap in southern , western VA this afternoon. Looks disorganized right now on the models, and part of central, northeast NC may end up with more snow than say LYH or DAN Thats interesting which really RAP does look better for NC then VA/DC area. Go figure. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RAP&grid=255&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=01&model_dd=21&model_init_hh=11&fhour=18¶meter=CREF&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=loopmaps&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 That mcd that was issued by spc is literally pinned up against my county border. If this southern band can continue to over perform that write up may be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Sunny and 35. Nearly a 30 degree drop from yesterdays high. Clouds black off to the west and NW looking towards Martinsville, VA and Danville, VA. Should see some snow soon with the first band coming through. That band is really developing now since it crossed the mountains. http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=FCX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Edit... Any met or anybody know whats causing this on RAH radar the banding feature http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=rax&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 A Flurry a frosty's house and 36.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 43 in CAE. Sun and 50's expected. Rain and mid 30's later. Pics to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Snowing here in Bassett (nw of MTV) 50 miles SSW of Disc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The energy is more bundled in SC on this run of the RAP. Bodes well for the Piedmont of NC. Looks like there will definitely be two areas of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The energy is more bundled in SC on this run of the RAP. Bodes well for the Piedmont of NC. Looks like there will definitely be two areas of moisture. I could stand for it to be just a tad south and west for my back yard. The good longer duration moisture is just to my north and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Just looking at the s/w on the latest ruc, it is in an ideal place for clipper snows ( the general 1-2 incher types). With the slp development off of hatteras, I think portions of far northeast NC could do quite well late tonight if you're in a favorable band. Isolated 3 or 4 inches wouldn't surprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Not feeling too confident about Charlotte's chances based on the RAP. Hope to see some flurries today, that should at least be fun. Sitting at 41 and starting to get cloudy.The RAP keeps bouncing around with where it puts the heavier stuff. Still seems to want to favor southern piedmont, but NAM and GFS have returned to their central/northern piedmont solutions. I do think we are now in nowcast time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Matthew East's thoughts on today's system. His in-house model awards the Raleigh to Rocky Mount area with the most snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I was definitely surprised that the models took a pretty dramatic shift south with the s/w last night with less than 24 hours before the event. All of the short term models have some area of the piedmont of NC getting at least an inch or two of snow. Most are for the northeast NC although the nam went with a strip east of Charlotte across the NC/SC border counties. Another one was the Greensboro area. Looks like a wait and see where the band of goodness sets up. Good luck everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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