WeatherNC Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 A lot of ifs involved with this but then when is it not like this.....the NAM is being the NAM, I assume since you never txt me you didn't pull the trigger on the 45-70 huh. RWI is the place to be, PGV a fridge job, higher amounts 95 north once you get past RIC, you know the deal. 45-70 Gov't was a miss, hoping I can find that model somewhere a little cheaper down the road, or they run another batch. Based on the EC, half of what falls if any could be RN dominant type, before a quick transition and within an hour the growth zone is smoked top to bottom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 RWI is the place to be, PGV a fridge job, higher amounts 95 north once you get past RIC, you know the deal. 45-70 Gov't was a miss, hoping I can find that model somewhere a little cheaper down the road, or they run another batch. Based on the EC, half of what falls if any could be RN dominant type, before a quick transition and within an hour the growth zone is smoked top to bottom. Yeah gotta hope we get some hard to pinpoint thus hard to forecast mesoscale help but I will be happy with a dusting.....bummer on the 45-70 another one will come along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Most of the district did get >2", but DCA is like a slice of hell with all the warmth around the airport, LMAO. -------------- I will worship at the altar of DT if I get 2" as he shows. I think he's just doing his typical deal where he pays no attention to NC and just draws lines, though, LOL. Yeah has me in the 2-4 which I think is possible! 2-4 flakes that is... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 My final call map... (I decided to increase totals a little bit due to trends in the models) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 yep I'll gladly take 2-4 here in Buncombe County but I don't think its likely since GSP doesn't even have us in a wwa , so this doesn't look like they're too bullish for us. unless they're holding off until later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 They posted your earlier map in the Mid Atlantic thread earlier. You should feel special! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 They posted your earlier map in the Mid Atlantic thread earlier. You should feel special! Awesome! That is pretty cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 My final call map... (I decided to increase totals a little bit due to trends in the models) I like your map, and respect the time and effort! I think you were generous with the flurries to the south, lol. There has been alot of talk about shorts eating on here tonight, so I will eat my shorts if I see a flurry , temps also near 50 here tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I like your map, and respect the time and effort! I think you were generous with the flurries to the south, lol. There has been alot of talk about shorts eating on here tonight, so I will eat my shorts if I see a flurry , temps also near 50 here tomorrow I can agree with that. I could see a few flurries in the upstate, but the main stuff will be in VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Most websites I'm following say a 60% chance of 0.5 inches of snow imby. I'd be happy if it verifies, but I'm concerned about the 40% chance of nothing or all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Awesome! That is pretty cool If only you had used Windows Paint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCStateMMY Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Impossible to shift a QPF axis centered in NOVA significantly south enough to matter inside 72 hours this time of year (like we saw was taking shape Sat/Sun), and with the advance in computational power and algorithms models run, trillion dollars to a donut type deal. Shifting a secondary max 20-30 miles in the Coastal Plain, doable, but that is if the NAM/RGEM/NMM are to be believed. Like many, I have been suckered into shoving all in on the NAM too many times, not buying it. The 18z RGEM while more subdued, streak originates on the front end best I can tell, rather than what the NAM cooks up, which is definitely on the back. 18z reflect at 30hrs pulled from the RAH page... SN output pulled from the model center 18zhighresnam.JPG That looks eerily similar to 12/26/2004. http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20041226/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 If only you had used Windows Paint. Yeah... I guess I could have. lol. I actually have found GIMP to be a pretty good program. I had to use it in school and it is a good program. NAM is rolling so I guess lets see what it shows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Yeah... I guess I could have. lol. I actually have found GIMP to be a pretty good program. I had to use it in school and it is a good program. NAM is rolling so I guess lets see what it shows... My post was a reference to a person who is no longer with us. I think you arrived after he was shown the door. In any event, here is a sample of his work I alluded too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 That looks eerily similar to 12/26/2004. http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20041226/ Core of the vortmax needs to pass over or south of GSP, RUC is a little south of the NAM, imagine it will correct once the T step is decreased to fall in line, 21z SREF is ugly, less than a tenth on the mean, with some spread into NE NC but not much, hopefully the 0z NAM trends better for this area compared to previous runs, but not holding my breath. NAM giveth, educated guess based on the SREF, 0z NAM taketh away. Final call, nothing to a dusting, 1/2-1" on grassy and elevated surfaces with a boom. WWA overnight just because MHX plays it safe, and patchy ice on roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Yeah... I guess I could have. lol. I actually have found GIMP to be a pretty good program. I had to use it in school and it is a good program. NAM is rolling so I guess lets see what it shows...A little further south and sharper with the vort. SLP is elongated more to the south, but precip fields by 00z tomorrow are less impressive over VA mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Core of the vortmax needs to pass over or south of GSP, RUC is a little south of the NAM, imagine it will correct once the T step is decreased to fall in line, 21z SREF is ugly, less than a tenth on the mean, with some spread into NE NC but not much, hopefully the 0z NAM trends better for this area compared to previous runs, but not holding my breath. NAM giveth, educated guess based on the SREF, 0z NAM taketh away. Final call, nothing to a dusting, 1/2-1" on grassy and elevated surfaces with a boom. WWA overnight just because MHX plays it safe, and patchy ice on roads. I think you are going to like the 0Z NAM...... an eastern NC special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 0Z NAM way south with vortex. Tracks over NC/SC border instead of VA/NC border. Huge shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 0Z NAM way south with vortex. Tracks over NC/SC border instead of VA/NC border. Huge shift. Trending towards the RAP, then. E NC looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Core of the vortmax needs to pass over or south of GSP, RUC is a little south of the NAM, imagine it will correct once the T step is decreased to fall in line, 21z SREF is ugly, less than a tenth on the mean, with some spread into NE NC but not much, hopefully the 0z NAM trends better for this area compared to previous runs, but not holding my breath. NAM giveth, educated guess based on the SREF, 0z NAM taketh away. Final call, nothing to a dusting, 1/2-1" on grassy and elevated surfaces with a boom. WWA overnight just because MHX plays it safe, and patchy ice on roads. Aren't you in the 3-5" band on the 0z NAM. RDU misses the back by 20 miles. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 A little further south and sharper with the vort. SLP is elongated more to the south, but precip fields by 00z tomorrow are less impressive over VA mountains. Couple tenths over CLT, 3hr type, at 24hrs. Not a bad run for east of 95 either, have to look a thickness plots though, some could be on the front side. Edit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The NAM has shifted farther south with this system. The trend was also lower amounts of QPF across VA. The NAM also tries to develop a band of precipitation across the piedmont. This is now a nowcast situation, and this clipper is performing like most clippers. As a meteorologist, I hate to predict upper level lows, especially clippers... Lets see what happens with short term models, like the RAP. I will post the 500 mb map in a few minutes from the 01z RAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I don't think that's all snow in E NC on the NAM. Correct me if I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Trending towards the RAP, then. E NC looks good. Got to think the foothills here would be in decent shape with that track right under us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I don't think that's all snow in E NC on the NAM. Correct me if I am wrong. 850s are supportive of all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The 00z nam looked worse for people in my region. Even though the vort was much further south then the last few runs. Why would the vort coming further south translate to less precip for my area? Thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 When I watched the news on WCNC at 6pm I noticed on Futurecast a small area of snow over Gaston/Cleveland/Lincoln counties in NC, I wonder if there's a lee trough surprise in here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 How does the vort shift 100 miles south but the precip is cut in half?! THE ****ING MADNESS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 It looks like it's weaker with the first vort and stronger with the streak that's rushing in behind. That's probably what triggers the band over eastern NC. But it also means that the first low isn't as consolidated, as can be seen by the more elongated look on the surface. GFS will be interesting to be sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I don't think that's all snow in E NC on the NAM. Correct me if I am wrong. Majority of what falls west of 17 would be SN based on thickness. Even down to Lumberton would likely change over and see a dusting to inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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