BIG FROSTY Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 FWIW- JB just post a video said models has the snow TO FAR SOUTH who would've thunk it? I95 special says the low will be over Parkersburg WVa. (not this far south) another off the coast of Va. so NYC can have them a near Blizzard. just lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 http://t.co/iyB2JWoY7i Weatherbell says blizzard to near blizzard conditions similar to Jan 3 for NJ to New england Tuesday lol posted same time!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Are people seriously jumping off a cliff now? It didn't even look like any of us outside the mountains were going to get any snow 24 hours ago and now pretty much every model shows some (some more than others, obviously). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 lol posted same time!!! Should we post JB's Northeast Winter Storm Warning Flag he just hoisted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Not sure we should be bowing down to a model that had our highs in the 60's around day 7 just on yesterday's runs and today that's a good 25 degrees colder. GFS has flip flopped more than a good politician, yet we still trust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The 0z runs of the RGEM, UK and GGEM all agree with GFS. In about 90 mins the Euro will join the camp. Really the only discussion is who jackpots, DT or JI, my money is on JI, it always snows for him We may see flurries, Honestly its looking more and more likely while nam is the outlier. Go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Not sure we should be bowing down to a model that had our highs in the 60's around day 7 just on yesterday's runs and today that's a good 25 degrees colder. GFS has flip flopped more than a good politician, yet we still trust. Gfs is accurate spring-fall. Seems to never verify when its by itself in winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Gfs is accurate spring-fall. Seems to never verify when its by itself in winter Oh, I guarantee you it will verify with Tuesday's snow. We have got to have southern system for us to have a half a chance of a winter storm, just wait till a nice gulf low forms there want be a temp below freezing in the lower 48. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 DT said he is an idiot, lol they both funny in their own way I hope he is wrong, i want some dang snow!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Should we post JB's Northeast Winter Storm Warning Flag he just hoisted? Might as well, it's the only one we'll get to see! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I hope he is wrong, i want some dang snow!!!! Same here. All those folks going crazy in the mid atlantic posting GFS,CMC,RGEM maps and its alot further north I will admit that. But this s/w is gonna have to make a hell of U turn to crank up and hit them. I could understand if it was dropping out of Montana but its not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The 0z euro looks similar to the 0z gfs. This is looking like a light event for NC...Yawn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The 0z euro looks similar to the 0z gfs. This is looking like a light event for NC...Yawn! It looks pretty similar to recent runs. It never showed this being huge, but has shown accumulating snowfall across northern and eastern NC (which it still does). It isn't as bullish as the GFS with snowfall up towards DC, either, with a 2-5" stripe stretching from Blacksburg over towards south of DC over towards central Delaware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Might as well change this to Jan 21 NON event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 20, 2014 Author Share Posted January 20, 2014 The 3Z SREF puts downs a stripe of .25 qpf across northern NC on a line from northern Wake County to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 20, 2014 Author Share Posted January 20, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Austin Caviness just said the snow has the "potential" to accumulate and tomorrow afternoons commute could be problematic. Time for the panic to begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 For those of you in GSP's CWFA here is last nights disco on this event. .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...ARCTIC FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY.ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL DIG THRU THE MEAN ERN CONUS TROUGH ASWELL...DEPARTING THE CWFA FAIRLY QUICKLY TUE EVENING. NW FLOW SNOWSHOULD ALREADY BE UNDERWAY AT DAYBREAK TUE AND ACTIVITY WILL PEAK ASTHE FRONT PUSHES ACRS THE MTNS AROUND MIDDAY. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OFTHE SYSTEM AND ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT...PRECIP DOES NOW LOOKPOSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT AS WELL.DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO BE NOTED IN THE MODELS AS TO THE SWD REACH OFTHE FRONT AND THE UPPER WAVE...AND ACCORDINGLY THE LOCATION OFGENESIS OF THE SFC CYCLONE WHICH DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CAROLINASBEFORE LIFTING UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WHILE THE POSITIONING OFTHE SFC LOW IS PRETTY CLOSE BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS/EC/SREF MEMBERS...MINOR DIFFERENCES COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON QPF AWAY FROMTHE NW FLOW AREAS. WITH TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING LATE IN THEEVENT...THIS IN TURN SUGGESTS UNCERTAINTY AS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.NAM IS WETTER THAN THE GFS/EC...WITH THE NAM LENT CONFIDENCE BY THESREF MEANS. BASICALLY THE GFS/EC ARE SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH WITH THEBEST FORCING AND MOISTURE. HOWEVER...RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ISREASONABLY GOOD FOR EACH MODEL CAMP. NW FLOW SETUP FEATURES A DEEPSATURATED LAYER WITH WINDS BEING WELL ORIENTED FOR A FEW HOURSESPECIALLY AROUND MIDDAY. GFS FEATURES A LLVL PV ANOMALY...AND BOTHNAM/GFS SUGGEST SOME EPV COULD BE AT PLAY DURING THE EVENT EAST OFTHE MTNS. SO QPF WAS KEPT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF AN AVERAGE OF THEGUIDANCE.TEMPS OVER THE PIEDMONT SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE SOMEWHAT EFFICIENTLYBEFORE THE FROPA...SO MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN SOUTH OFI-40. IT IS NOT REALLY UNTIL PRECIP TRAILS OFF AS THE FRONT SAGS DOWNAND THE SFC LOW TRACKS EAST LATE TUE AFTN THAT TEMPS BECOME FAVORABLEFOR WINTRY MIX OR SNOW THAT FAR SOUTH. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE INTHE FCST AT THAT TIME...AND ACCUMS ARE MINIMAL OUTSIDE THEMTNS/FOOTHILLS. THUS NO HEADLINES WILL BE RAISED OUTSIDE THE NW FLOWAREAS AT THIS TIME. FOCUSING THE BLENDED QPF ON THE MIDDAY PEAK INTHE MTNS...AND WITH LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING THERE TUE NIGHT DUE TOLINGERING LLVL MOISTURE...WARNING CRITERIA ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR INPORTIONS OF THE ZONES ALONG THE TENN BORDER. THUS WE WILL RAISE AWINTER STORM WATCH THERE...EXTENDING IT UNTIL 600 AM WEDNESDAY FORWHAT IS LIKELY TO BE PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE SPINE...AS WELLAS FOR THE WIND CHILLS WHICH WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONG POST FRONTALWINDS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KT ARE LIKELYIN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUE AFTN/EVENING. WILL WRAP WIND INFO INTO THEWSW.LOW TEMPS WED MORNING WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MTNSAND TEENS FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT. SAVE FOR SOME LINGERING CLOUDINESS INTHE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE MTNS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WED WILL PERHAPSOFFER SOME RELIEF FROM THE VERY COLD HIGH TEMPERATURES 15-20 DEGREESBELOW NORMAL. UPPER MOISTURE SPREADS OVER WED NIGHT ALONG WITH THERETURN OF SOME VERY WEAK WAA AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THESOUTHEAST. LOWS THU MRNG WILL REBOUND A FEW DEGREES VS WED MRNG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Austin Caviness just said the snow has the "potential" to accumulate and tomorrow afternoons commute could be problematic. Time for the panic to begin. Lol doubt it. Public has heard that before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I'm not really sure how most of NC will see anything more than flurries or a brief period of light snow leading to maybe a dusting in spots (outside of maybe the boarder counties) with the progged track of the vort. You have to throw the NAM away here. Every time I observe these situations where the NAM paints more QPF than the other models, it's almost always overdone. These things usually trend north. There are exceptions, but they are rare, and this does not look like one of those times. Not trying to be a negative nancy, but the energy is on shore and should be well modeled now, so any surprises in our favor are very unlikely. The 6z GFS is even drier. The vort tracks along the VA/NC boarder and it's preceded by a weak surface low moving across the state....not a good setup for accumulating snow. I'll bet the 12z runs come in even drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I'm not really sure how most of NC will see anything more than flurries or a brief period of light snow leading to maybe a dusting in spots (outside of maybe the boarder counties) with the progged track of the vort. You have to throw the NAM away here. Every time I observe these situations where the NAM paints more QPF than the other models, it's almost always overdone. These things usually trend north. There are exceptions, but they are rare, and this does not look like one of those times. Not trying to be a negative nancy, but the energy is on shore and should be well modeled now, so any surprises in our favor are very unlikely. The 6z GFS is even drier. The vort tracks along the VA/NC boarder and it's preceded by a weak surface low moving across the state....not a good setup for accumulating snow. I'll bet the 12z runs come in even drier. Yep, not looking too promising at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Yeah CAD, I agree. As many have said now, we need a Gulf Low! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The 0z euro looks similar to the 0z gfs. This is looking like a light event for NC...Yawn! The 3Z SREF puts downs a stripe of .25 qpf across northern NC on a line from northern Wake County to the coast. I would gladly take a couple of inches of snow. You have to break the drought somehow. This might be all we get this winter, and after the last two, we should be happy to get what we can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 DT has me in 2-4 and Alan has me in 0.5-1and NWS up to 1 inch ? I say there's a chance I may see an inch out of this? Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 1h My first forecast map for Jan 21-22nd event. Will update later today if data warrants changes. #snow pic.twitter.com/4J4oJeNupJ 4:47 AM - 20 Jan 2014 · Details Flag mediaFlagged (learn more) Expand Collapse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Frosty, completely ignore DT's map. Completely ignore it. Allan's guess, while still maybe a bit high, is much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Frosty, completely ignore DT's map. Completely ignore it. Allan's guess, while still maybe a bit high, is much better. I agree 1000% he has never been close with a snow forecast for my area (NEVER) just threw it out for kicks and giggles! Honestly I would guess I mostly get down sloped and less than an inch if that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Yesterday it looked like we could get a little something, maybe close to 2 inches here. Now it looks like a dusting MAYBE. We can't even get the models to hold serve on a little snow within 48 hours now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 From everything I see, 1" of snow for the Triangle area should be considered a win. I see Allen's map and would think that is about right with a note we could easily see less/nothing and a small chance to see a little more. So again 1" = good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 NAM much stronger, someone in the NE is about to get NAM'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 NAM much stronger, someone in the NE is about to get NAM'd. Looks like it might be a little west of the 6z at hour 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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