NCSNOW Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 GFS way north, and the beat goes on...I am moving to VT with Eyewall. Take the GFS with you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 You may want to relook at his snow map.It has us inthe ligh blue 2-4.I don't have access to bring his map but when I looked it has us in light blue. Now I admit I'm color blind but it looks grey to me? I hope you're right. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 If that vort comes in over the Apps, I don't see anyway for us on the Lee side getting anything it just dries very thing out east of us triad on east will have a decent shot. I've only see a few times, where a clipper type storm gives us a decent snow. But if the vort drops south of us game on. Did you get anything last wednesday night? Jast asking .Our ground was covered good dusting.No not a big deal but it was a clipper.Just saying these thing can produce.And as cold as it forcasted to be higher ratio could be possible too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The SREF plumes are pretty awesome tonight. They show a mean of 3.14" at GSO and 2.94" at RDU with almost all members showing accumulating snow. It's probably overdone, but still. The mean is close to 9" in Richmond with a couple members dropping 15-20". Look at DCA it's pretty insane. Definitely trending slightly upward with QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 So GFS appears to be the outlier at this point.... Unless it is the only one right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Now I admit I'm color blind but it looks grey to me? I hope you're right. lol No your not color blind.Go back to his site and look at his forecast map.It looks different than the one you postedearlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 So GFS appears to be the outlier at this point.... Yes. But if there is ever a moment for it to pull the coup and be spoiler this has a very high chance of being that one time. As if this almost 3 year old snow drought hasn't slapped us in the face enough, why not get one more jab in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Unless it is the only one right. In which case it would still be the outlier... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Can I just have what the NAM/SREF combo gives me and call it a wrap? To Hell with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Unless it is the only one right. The GFS is pretty good with a track of a storm at 48 hours out, it's not shifting 150 miles south. It tracks the h5 vort down the NC/VA state line, gives the MA there 8"+ storm, gets them above there seasonal snowfall average, pounds PHL, NYC up through Boston, probably 10"+ with ratios. All the unbearable MA/NE weenies will be buried and then next week will be crying again about lack of snow. Boston has to be breaking more records, does it ever not snow there. At least it will be cold/dry here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Did you get anything last wednesday night? Jast asking .Our ground was covered good dusting.No not a big deal but it was a clipper.Just saying these thing can produce.And as cold as it forcasted to be higher ratio could be possible too. Yes we did, but it was because it came around the southern end of the apps not directly over the apps and the moisture transport allowed for the Lee side trough to do the dirty work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Here's the beautiful latest GFS snowfall map. Like · · Share · 32 · 2 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The SREF plumes are pretty awesome tonight. They show a mean of 3.14" at GSO and 2.94" at RDU with almost all members showing accumulating snow. It's probably overdone, but still. The mean is close to 9" in Richmond with a couple members dropping 15-20". Right. .35" average here. But there is more members running higher than that. Highest is .68" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 We are in the Hi Res Nam wheel house along with the nam. GFS is having all kinds of trouble lately. I mean yesterday day it had like a 50 degree difference in 6hrs. Now if the NAM comes in weaker and north then we can start to see a trend but no way would i go with this model in short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Here's the beautiful latest GFS snowfall map. Like · · Share · 32 · 2 minutes Looks like a Miller B map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 0z NAM gives me .34 qpf all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 We are in the Hi Res Nam wheel house along with the nam. GFS is having all kinds of trouble lately. I mean yesterday day it had like a 50 degree difference in 6hrs. Now if the NAM comes in weaker and north then we can start to see a trend but no way would i go with this model in short term.You shouldn't feel comfortable with the NAM being the outlier leader. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Looks like a Miller B map No, it's a miller lite map! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 You shouldn't feel comfortable with the NAM being the outlier leader. Then which 1 do you go with? For me if I had 1 model for short term not long term I would go with the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 No, it's a miller lite map! lol Weather forecasting and drinking HMM! sound like the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 You shouldn't feel comfortable with the NAM being the outlier leader. No model is trustworthy this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Then which 1 do you go with? For me if I had 1 model for short term not long term I would go with the nam.You're only saying that because it shows more snow for NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 GFS is the outlier still. But doesn't mean it isn't right. All the others might be wrong. But the GFS has been all over the place lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 You're only saying that because it shows more snow for NC. Go read what i have wrote before this Nam GFS back and forth. Maybe u will pick up on the clue that I said it LOOKS to be DRY for my area!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Locals given 20% chance of snow for tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Go read what i have wrote before this Nam GFS back and forth. Maybe u will pick up on the clue that I said it LOOKS to be DRY for my area!!! Yea may get lucky. Expect the worse then maybe get lucky. Right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 No model is trustworthy this year Right. Really most logical thing to do is a blend... find the total qpf from nam, gfs, sref,euro average them all up. Cut that average in half and cut it in half again. What ever number you come up with times that by ten. Let that be you're mind set and anticipation. So if you come up with .005" qpf average expect bare minimal nothing and max half inch. Lol JK Pilot. Best thing to do is to assume nothing at all till you see flakes flying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 GFS is the outlier still. But doesn't mean it isn't right. All the others might be wrong. But the GFS has been all over the place lately. The 0z runs of the RGEM, UK and GGEM all agree with GFS. In about 90 mins the Euro will join the camp. Really the only discussion is who jackpots, DT or JI, my money is on JI, it always snows for him We may see flurries, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Right. Really most logical thing to do is a blend... find the total qpf from nam, gfs, sref,euro average them all up. Cut that average in half and cut it in half again. What ever number you come up with times that by ten. Let that be you're mind set and anticipation. So if you come up with .005" qpf average expect bare minimal nothing and max half inch. Lol JK Pilot. Best thing to do is to assume nothing at all till you see flakes flying. Yep. Not going to lose any sleep over it. If we need to put salt out or plow we are ready. But this year looks like its going to be a dud. Cold winter but dry. Warm up when moisture arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 http://t.co/iyB2JWoY7i Weatherbell says blizzard to near blizzard conditions similar to Jan 3 for NJ to New england Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.