timnc910 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I can understand that metalic but this was a long shot on the models a couple days ago.. yesterday was the only day that any south trend was seen just to go back to the old solution... it looks like rocky mount and greenville will see accumulating snow but the state as a whole there not much trending to be done this late in the game... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 12Z GFS has the vort further south and west of the previous run at 24 and is stronger on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 12Z GFS has the vort further south and west of the previous run at 24 and is stronger on this run. The "it still ends up north with less precip" indicator is lit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 We have one member under a winter storm watch. Not that exciting, they have one every time a cold front comes through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 GFS looks beautiful…for NoVA and points NE, textbook H5 vort track for 8-10", awesome storm, NE NC may get an inch with wraparound, central NC looks to get some token flurries, better enjoy them, probably the best we will see for years to come. GFS is not picking up on the NW banding potential either, someone in DC area through PHL to NYC to BOS will get 12"+, great great storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I can understand that metalic but this was a long shot on the models a couple days ago.. yesterday was the only say that any south trend was seen just to go back to the old solution... it looks like rocky mount and greenville will see accumulating snow but the state as a whole there not much trending to be done this late in the game... Just because the storm has trended away doesn't mean that a moderator should lock the thread. If you don't want to read or discuss this event, don't come in the thread. If you want to complain about not getting snow, go to the banter thread and shout it from the rooftops! That's what we all have to do from time to time. I'll probably wait until tomorrow myself. Still holding out hopes for a flizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 RGEM showing the NW banding potential nicely….ratios are going to be extremely high, at least 15:1, maybe 20:1 for NoVA and points north, easily 10"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 For what it's worth, the 12 GFS was a little wetter than the 6z. It now has Raleigh near the .1 mark(NAM still a little wetter). This would further the anticipation of a dusting to maybe one inch for sections of the Triangle area. *IF we could get an inch(or even just a half) of snow moving into Tuesday night, there really would be the potential for travel problems the following morning. Especially if the snow continues as the temps fall into the 20s. It doesn't take much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 06Z versus 12Z. I like the trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I think its about time to close this thread down...the models are getting drier and drier....I believe temps will be a bust the last event I was suppose to get to 33 that night the lowest I made it was 43 seems like the same story again Why should we "close this thread down?" Just because your backyard won't get snow, doesn't mean others will experience the same fate. This is a free country and a free weather board, we can discuss whatever weather possibilities we want to. And, even if there is no snow anywhere, people should still be free to talk about that. The clamor for closing something down always grates on my nerves. Don't read the thread if you don't want to. It's really that easy. Sheesh... Just because the storm has trended away doesn't mean that a moderator should lock the thread. If you don't want to read or discuss this event, don't come in the thread. If you want to complain about not getting snow, go to the banter thread and shout it from the rooftops! That's what we all have to do from time to time. I'll probably wait until tomorrow myself. Still holding out hopes for a flizzard. Well said, packfan98. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 06Z versus 12Z. I like the trend loop.gif I'm liking the trend too. Since 0z the trend has been further south with the h5 and h7 low. With the nam, GFS, Euro. That would ultimately cause the VV at H7 to be closer to the low. Honestly... this thing keep digging further south and I smell bust potential for N. VA around the DC area. There very well could be a nice heavy band of snow on the backside stretching down to RDU and points south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 06Z versus 12Z. I like the trend loop.gif I like the trend as well, but we need about 3 more shifts like that one to get us back in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 NAM 850 low in central VA, you don't want to be south of that low, hard to imagine this shifting 150 miles south in 24 hours. Jackpot just NW of the 850 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Here is my first call map.... I elected to wait till after the 12z models come because of the uncertainty with the system. Some areas will receive more snow than I am forecasting and some areas will receive less. That is just the nature of forecasting snow, and especially when forecasting snow caused by a clipper system. Areas were more snow is possible are in the mountains of NC and VA. Coastal locations of VA could also see more snow than what is forecasted. I will probably have an update later this evening if any changes occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Who, Disc?I suspect we'll be downgraded to a WWA at somepoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I suspect we'll be downgraded to a WWA at somepoint. Going from a Winter Storm Watch to a WWA is not a downgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Going from a Winter Storm Watch to a WWA is not a downgrade. Why aint it? WSW is criteria for higher snow totals. WWA is for less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Going from a Winter Storm Watch to a WWA is not a downgrade. Why would it not? The criteria for a WWA is less, therefore I consider it a downgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Why would it not? The criteria for a WWA is less, therefore I consider it a downgrade. I just remember a NWS met (may have been isohume) coming on here when this was discussed before and said it was not a downgrade. I figured he would know since he issues them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I just remember a NWS met (may have been isohume) coming on here when this was discussed before and said it was not a downgrade. I figured he would know since he issues them. You know what I mean. Not sure why it makes much difference. In essence it's going from higher expected amounts to lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 For the millionth time...a WS.A to a WS.Y is NOT a downgrade. It's one of three main options to go from a WS.A. The WS.A has much lower probability associated with it (around 50%)...while a WS.W and a WS.Y have at least a 70% prob. One is chance the others are likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I know it's been a rough couple winters for most on this board so I just didn't want folks getting discouraged over thinkng they were being downgraded. You look to be in a decent spot regardless Disc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 For the millionth time...a WS.A to a WS.Y is NOT a downgrade. It's one of three main options to go from a WS.A. The WS.A has much lower probability associated with it (around 50%)...while a WS.W and a WS.Y have at least a 70% prob. One is chance the other is likely. I guess I'm not technical enough when it comes to this stuff. Makes sense, though. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I know it's been a rough couple winters for most on this board so I just didn't want folks getting discouraged over thinkng they were being downgraded. You look to be in a decent spot regardless Disc. Yeah, it's been a rough winter for sure. I'm waiting to see the Euro, but I'm thinking 2-3" of some powder up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I guess I'm not technical enough when it comes to this stuff. Makes sense, though. Thanks. Sry, I didn't mean to sound harsh or pissy...but I hear this about 10 times a season. Not just here, but in interviews, social media, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aanance Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Is there any chance we might get that system coming out of Texas this coming weekend? I know this is about that 21st and I hope the trend keeps pushing south but I am just curious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 12 NAM snow accumulations: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=01&model_dd=20&model_init_hh=12&fhour=42¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false 12 GFS snow accumulations: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=01&model_dd=20&model_init_hh=12&fhour=42¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Not much. We can hope for a little over performance that would make the world of difference. Even .05 more after the cold air arrives and temps are in the 20s can cause trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Not that exciting, they have one every time a cold front comes throughDisc! Not the mountain folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Some of the higher res mesoscale models are indicating enhanced banding from SE VA into the northern Coastal Plain, unsure if this is just a feedback issue with the winds backing around to the NNE off the waters, or legit. Someone just posted an RPM graphic in the MA sub which clearly showed it, high res NAM has it, NMM, and RGEM to a lesser extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Some of the higher res mesoscale models are indicating enhanced banding from SE VA into the northern Coastal Plain, unsure if this is just a feedback issue with the winds backing around to the NNE off the waters, or legit. Someone just posted an RPM graphic in the MA sub which clearly showed it, high res NAM has it, NMM, and RGEM to a lesser extent. I noticed that also...The RPM graphic was also posted in the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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