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Jan 21 Event

Poimen

By Poimen,
in Southeastern States

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FLweather

FLweather

Posted
Posted

GFS and NAM does if you look at the h7 charts. Does show a band of wrap around moisture in Central and Eastern NC. So its probable.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_036_700_rh_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12&param=700_rh_ht&fhr=036&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=360

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_036_700_rh_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12&param=700_rh_ht&fhr=036&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=360

 

 

 

 

 

Edit:

 

Radar Depiction of Hi Res Nam doen't look too bad for central and eastern sections of NC. Does show the band trying to set up.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam-hires%2F12%2Fnam-hires_namer_033_sim_reflectivity.gif&model=nam-hires&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12&param=sim_reflectivity&fhr=033&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam-hires%2F12%2Fnam-hires_namer_036_sim_reflectivity.gif&model=nam-hires&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12&param=sim_reflectivity&fhr=036&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

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Poimen

Poimen

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Posted

The GFS qpf map hints at this banding feature, too---it just doesn't drop as much qpf as the mesoscale models. Comparing the NAM and GFS (courtesy DT's Facebook page), it looks like a band will begin to organize over the northern Piedmont that strengthens a bit as it pivots toward the coastal plain. 1538845_635285149852080_899297172_n.png

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timnc910

timnc910

Posted
Posted

Here is for the eastern part of nc

327 AM EST MON JAN 20 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE, TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN, TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY EVENING. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. A DUSTING TO LESS THAN 1/2 INCH OF ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING TUESDAY EVENING AND IF WE DO GET LIGHT SNOW SOME SLICK SPOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S INLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 8 TO 13 DEGREE RANGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

If we do manage to pull down a decent 2-4 inches it should stick around a few days with the cold coming in, my back deck gets no sun at all in the winter and snow should hang out there till at least Sunday.

 

Kinda hard for us to get a good snow this far east though when its a setup like this, wonder what the high res is seeing being SW of the vort is usually no go for snow though.

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

RAH has 1 to 2 inches possible for my backyard:

  • Tuesday A chance of rain between 2pm and 5pm, then rain and snow likely. Increasing clouds, with a high near 49. East wind 5 to 8 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
  • Tuesday Night Rain and snow likely before 9pm, then a chance of snow between 9pm and 11pm. Cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing, with a low around 15. Northwest wind 10 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
406 PM EST MON JAN 20 2014

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>041-043-212115-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
WILSON-
406 PM EST MON JAN 20 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
RAIN ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT. SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY NORTH OF
THE TRIANGLE TOWARD THE VIRGINIA BORDER. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TRIANGLE...NORTHERN
PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

$$

VINCENT
 

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

MHX actually mentions accumulations which is a pretty big step for them

 

Tuesday Night A chance of rain and snow before 7pm, then a chance of snow between 7pm and 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. North wind 14 to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

Here's some more from RAH:

 

...POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
N/NW PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

OVERVIEW: THE LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...WITH A MORE CONSOLIDATED/PHASED SHORTWAVE
DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
CAROLINAS ON TUE...RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH...
WHICH WILL ASSUME A NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT TUE NIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE AND LIFTS NE TO THE
DELMARVA AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE BY 06-12Z WED. SFC LOW PRESSURE
WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN OVER CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 12-18Z TUE IN RESPONSE
TO STRONG SYNOPTIC HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ IN VICINITY OF A
STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE AS THE ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES THE
RELATIVELY WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. RAPID
PRESSURE FALLS (8 MB/6-HR) APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL NC IN THIS
TIME FRAME. THE ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
CENTRAL NC MID/LATE TUE AFTERNOON AS THE STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS
APPROACH THE MORE PRONOUNCED BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE AND THE
INTENSIFYING SFC LOW RAPIDLY `JUMPS` OFFSHORE THE NC/VA COAST. RAPID
PRESSURE RISES AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT MID/LATE TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES: DIFFICULT TEMP FCST. HIGHS TUE WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVER...THE ONSET OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION TUE AFT/EVE...AND EVAP
COOLING IN ASSOC/W ANY PRECIP...ESP NORTH/NNE OF THE TRIANGLE.
EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 40S NW TO MID/UPPER 50S IN
THE SE COASTAL PLAIN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE DRIVE BY VERY STRONG COLD
ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...WITH TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
LOWER/MID TEENS (FAR NW) TO UPPER TEENS /NEAR 20F/ FAR SE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES: ALL OF THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
TOWARD MORE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NC DUE TO STRONG DPVA AND RAPID/PRONOUNCED COOLING ALOFT
(RESULTING IN STEEP H85-H7 LAPSE RATES AND PERHAPS VERY MARGINAL
DESTABILIZATION BETWEEN 21-00Z) COINCIDENT WITH A BAND OF STRONG
LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE DELMARVA SW
INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NC. EXPECT A TIGHT GRADIENT IN PRECIP
AMOUNTS OVER CENTRAL NC...RANGING FROM 0.15-0.20" NEAR THE VA BORDER
IN THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND NE COASTAL PLAIN TO A TRACE IN PORTIONS
OF THE SANDHILLS AND FAR SW PIEDMONT...WITH PERHAPS 0.07-0.12" IN
THE TRIANGLE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE /AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH/
AND RESULTING EFFECTS ON THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND THERMAL GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON PRECIP AMOUNTS
AND DURATION IN CENTRAL NC. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...HAVE INCREASED
PRECIP CHANCES TO LIKELY (60-70%) FROM THE TRIANGLE N/NE WITH 20-50%
FROM THE SC BORDER NORTH TOWARD THE HWY 64 CORRIDOR AND 50-60% IN
THE TRIAD.

PTYPE CONCERNS: THIS IS A NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT SETUP IN CENTRAL NC
W/REGARD TO DETERMINING ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AND AMOUNTS. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT PTYPE INITIALLY...THOUGH LIKELY BECOMING
A MIX AND CHANGING TO SNOW FROM NW-SE ACROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 21-
03Z AS LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS. GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED EXPECTATIONS WITH REGARD TO PRECIP AMOUNTS AND COLD
ADVECTION...EXPECT THE RELATIVE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION (~1") IN THE FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND NORTHEAST
COASTAL PLAIN TOWARD THE VA BORDER...WITH PERHAPS ISOLD ACCUM
POTENTIAL AS MUCH AS 2" IF A HEAVY SNOW BAND SETS UP AND PERSISTS
FOR SEVERAL HOURS. ACCUM POTENTIAL APPEARS TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH WITH
SOUTHWARD EXTENT...WITH PERHAPS A TRACE-DUSTING IN VICINITY OF THE
HWY 64 CORRIDOR FROM RALEIGH WESTWARD. WITH RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW...THERE IS A CONCERN THAT SOME OR MUCH OF THE PRECIP THAT FALLS
WILL OCCUR AS RAIN OR AS LIGHT NON-ACCUMULATING SNOW. IN THIS
SETUP...ACCUMULATION WILL VERY LIKELY DEPEND ON RATES/DURATION...
ASSUMING PRECIP OF SUFFICIENT INTENSITY AND LONGEVITY IS EVEN
PRESENT ONCE THERMAL PROFILES BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF ALL SNOW. SNOW-
LIQUID RATIOS WILL RAPIDLY BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER 00Z AS THE
LOW/MID LEVELS RAPIDLY COOL...AND THIS WILL ALSO BE A COMPLICATING
FACTOR W/REGARD TO ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. GIVEN THAT WATCH/WARNING
CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET...AND THAT SUFFICIENT UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS W/REGARD TO PRECIP AMOUNTS/LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE
CHANGEOVER...WILL NOT ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS
PACKAGE...THOUGH IT IS LIKELY THAT ONE WILL BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT
PERIODS FROM THE TRIANGLE INTO THE NORTH/NW PIEDMONT AND NE COASTAL
PLAIN IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE. -VINCENT

-- End Changed Discussion --


&&
 

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