Poimen Posted January 20, 2014 Author Share Posted January 20, 2014 looks like a general .10 to .20 for central NC on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 looks like a general .10 to .20 for central NC on the NAM As things go....good run. Looks just a little better than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 As things go....good run. Looks just a little better than 18z.No, it's not better than 18z. There is less 0.25" or greater precip across northern NC and in general, precip totals are less. The low is a little weaker and a little further offshore, albeit a little slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Fair to say at least 1-2 inches looking good for most in NC. Winston-Salem over to N. foothills maybe 3. But that's looking at this map and figuring all will be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 20, 2014 Author Share Posted January 20, 2014 Still, a dusting to one inch seems like a good possibility across the northern Piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 No, it's not better than 18z. There is less 0.25" or greater precip across northern NC and in general, precip totals are less. The low is a little weaker and a little further offshore, albeit a little slower. 18z NAM 0z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 No, it's not better than 18z. There is less 0.25" or greater precip across northern NC and in general, precip totals are less. The low is a little weaker and a little further offshore, albeit a little slower. The run is better for the coastal plain and sandhill areas. Higher qpf than the 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 i think its safe to say that moderate snowfall is likely from this event somewhere in VA and/or NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 A Virginia special, maybe a lot of NC also. WxSouth Further investigation of the new NAM run. It shows an 850 low pressure in southern Virginia by midday Tuesday. This is a GREAT sign if you want to see heavy or moderate snow. This favors Richmond highly...with moderate to heavy period of snow. IF the NAM is right. It warms central NC midday though, but turns them to snow as well. The trend is certainly stronger and more developed on this clipper.2" to 5" of snow is possible by evening Tuesday in central Virginia.#vawx #ncwx #mdwx #dewx #ricwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 A Virginia special, maybe N.NC also. WxSouth Further investigation of the new NAM run. It shows an 850 low pressure in southern Virginia by midday Tuesday. This is a GREAT sign if you want to see heavy or moderate snow. This favors Richmond highly...with moderate to heavy period of snow. IF the NAM is right. It warms central NC midday though, but turns them to snow as well. The trend is certainly stronger and more developed on this clipper.2" to 5" of snow is possible by evening Tuesday in central Virginia. #vawx #ncwx #mdwx #dewx #ricwx If the NAM is right, alot of NC gets in on the action, not just N NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 A Virginia special, maybe N.NC also. WxSouth Further investigation of the new NAM run. It shows an 850 low pressure in southern Virginia by midday Tuesday. This is a GREAT sign if you want to see heavy or moderate snow. This favors Richmond highly...with moderate to heavy period of snow. IF the NAM is right. It warms central NC midday though, but turns them to snow as well. The trend is certainly stronger and more developed on this clipper.2" to 5" of snow is possible by evening Tuesday in central Virginia. #vawx #ncwx #mdwx #dewx #ricwx Wxrisk has been showing some of the same.Likr yourself i'm more than ready for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 If the NAM is right, alot of NC gets in on the action, not just N NC yes, you're right I should have said that! My bad.... went back and fixed it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 yes, you're right I should have said that! My bad.... Oh not a problem, yes the heavier stuff is in N NC and VA on this run. Still .10 for much of NC. Another trend like this tomorrow and much of NC would be in the heavy QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Wxrisk has been showing some of the same.Likr yourself I'm more than ready for snow. Yes, ready I am! But I will add I am still VERY concerned about getting skipped and triad on east gets the snow. That's more likely IMO than the Foothills getting hit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 If you would have told me yesterday we would get 0.1" of precip that could fall as snow I would have been happy. The 0z vort, ticked south some but not as sharp as the 18z, which for us is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 This is probably more like what I except. I'm in the Grey Rapidwx-US First thoughts on Tuesday system. *Snow ratios are not factored into this forecast just yet, latest NAM suggest temperatures near 20-24 degree's as snow is falling near and around Richmond and into the mid to upper 20's into parts of North Carolina. This will certainly raise snow ratio's and could be dealing with more snow accumulations in these areas. I will look over model runs tomorrow to determine the snow ratio's and then i will post my final forecast on the 18z set(Around 4:30 pm)Grey- Dusting -1"White- 1"-2"Light Blue 2"-4"Blue- 4"-7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The 00z RGEM looks amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goduke Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Wow check out the SREF plumes qpf totals for clt. Hard to bet on a clipper though. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20140119&RT=21&PRM=Total-QPF&SID=CLT&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=35.50065213243358&mLON=-82.0737806640625&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 This is probably more like what I except. I'm in the Grey Rapidwx-US First thoughts on Tuesday system. *Snow ratios are not factored into this forecast just yet, latest NAM suggest temperatures near 20-24 degree's as snow is falling near and around Richmond and into the mid to upper 20's into parts of North Carolina. This will certainly raise snow ratio's and could be dealing with more snow accumulations in these areas. I will look over model runs tomorrow to determine the snow ratio's and then i will post my final forecast on the 18z set(Around 4:30 pm)Grey- Dusting -1" White- 1"-2" Light Blue 2"-4" Blue- 4"-7" Who is rapid wx? But hey I'll take it. If anything.... I sure hope this is an "overperformer" like some of these rain events have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Who is rapid wx? But hey I'll take it. If anything.... I sure hope this is an "overperformer" like some of these rain events have been. Found Him on Facebook and liked his page, He is pretty good since I've been following him, He lives in Alamance county... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The 21z SREF drops .25 from HKY to Greensboro, quickly goes up as you head north. I know nobody cares about DCA but I thought it was interesting 7 of the 22 members dropped a foot or more there. It's close to blowing up if we get a trend southward it's possible the QPF continues to trend upward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I would be cautious of any meaningful precipitation occurring south of the 500mb vort max track east of the mountains. You want to be north of that track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 This is probably more like what I except. I'm in the Grey Rapidwx-US First thoughts on Tuesday system. *Snow ratios are not factored into this forecast just yet, latest NAM suggest temperatures near 20-24 degree's as snow is falling near and around Richmond and into the mid to upper 20's into parts of North Carolina. This will certainly raise snow ratio's and could be dealing with more snow accumulations in these areas. I will look over model runs tomorrow to determine the snow ratio's and then i will post my final forecast on the 18z set(Around 4:30 pm)Grey- Dusting -1" White- 1"-2" Light Blue 2"-4" Blue- 4"-7" You may want to relook at his snow map.It has us inthe ligh blue 2-4.I don't have access to bring his map but when I looked it has us in light blue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Yes indeed Grit. we talked about this earlier, it's basically going over our head, MBY could use a 40-90 mile shift south just to put down any doubts and turn this into a few inches instead of a half inch. Be interesting to see if the GFS has a seat at the table tonight. last model left out there killing any chance for a flurry / flake here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 If that vort comes in over the Apps, I don't see anyway for us on the Lee side getting anything it just dries very thing out east of us triad on east will have a decent shot. I've only see a few times, where a clipper type storm gives us a decent snow. But if the vort drops south of us game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 WxSouth on Facebook talked about the clipper in 03 that was just supposed to drop a couple inches in some places and it did a lot more, including 10 to 12 in the foothills and mountains. Said this one was similar. Not calling for that, but saying how things could be surprising. And this clipper is around the same date as the 03 one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 GFS way north, and the beat goes on...I am moving to VT with Eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The SREF plumes are pretty awesome tonight. They show a mean of 3.14" at GSO and 2.94" at RDU with almost all members showing accumulating snow. It's probably overdone, but still. The mean is close to 9" in Richmond with a couple members dropping 15-20". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 So GFS appears to be the outlier at this point.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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