NC_WX10 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Sorry for the IMBY question but I'm very confused right now. All the counties to my immediate north and south are under WWA. Models have been flipping back and forth and it seems to me that area to my north and east are in much better shape then I am is that correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 ever the optimist to see a flake or two - the latest gfs indicates we may have a few falling here (going to be close). the winds have picked up big time here and clouds moving in. not expecting much or anything but hey maybe i can see one or two pin size snow flakes later today lol good luck to those in nc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I'm starting to think that band that drops through the eastern triad and south will leave the western part of the triad high and dry, while Gboro west to Burlington could see a pretty decent snow fall. This trend seems to have been picked up on by nearly every model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Seeing a flurry or two right now as I type this. Must be headed this way. You're out in the county correct?How much do you have now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Quick question about temperatures: here in Raleigh it's still completely clear and sunny, and I think it's possible we end up a few degrees above the forecasted high. If this happens, would it mean temps would be slower to fall? Or would it actually help the convection driven snow that RAH mentioned? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 metalicwx366, on 21 Jan 2014 - 12:20 PM, said:How much do you have now? Wet grass and semi-dry roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Man, that band going through the Triad on the RAP and WRF looks good. I've been lucky with snow the last couple years, so maybe it will happen, ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 and me LOL My bad! Yea all of us across triad -triangle it's gonna be flip a coin. Some will get a nice coating and others will get screwed. nature of the beast with these. Just in our county between the 4 of us you will see a sig spread. You are no doubt in the best spot. hopefully this band that sets up n/s oriented from Triad to sandhills on every model comes to fruition and doesn't do a disappearing act this evening. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I'm starting to think that band that drops through the eastern triad and south will leave the western part of the triad high and dry, while Gboro west to Burlington could see a pretty decent snow fall. This trend seems to have been picked up on by nearly every model. Wouldn't be the first time that's happened. In fact, it's quite common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 And it is projected to stay stronger and more defined as one piece of energy longer. Looks like about a 15 mile shift south as well. This is interesting being that the local mets here in the east were saying they were probably increase their totals further south due to the southernly trend of the latest model run.. so there is still some uncertainty with this systems... with the warm temps around here any area in the east stands a chance of getting more snow than forecasted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Wow, death band clobbers me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Afternoon folks, CONGRATS, for those whom will/May receive a dusting or Surprise this afternoon/evening.. I'm not Edmucated enough, to know if that vort digging deeper sith will even Help ILM here, close but NO cigar, UNLESS, we happen to get convection right here on/in the coastal Zone... NWS upped our chances from 10% now to 20% chance of precip... Its 57 now, blustery winds.. Near term /through tonight/...as of 945 am Tuesday...temperatures on a quick uptrend early thismorning ahead in pace of hourly forecasts...and as a result havebumped maximum temperatures up a few degrees into the middle 60s acrossthe central and eastern zones to the upper 50s over our far northand west interior. The latest satellite trends show quite a bit ofsunshine is likely this morning into early afternoon. Cold airadvection will be strong and it will arrive this evening. Thesharp change in air mass will topple temperatures...and by 6z/1amthe majority of our forecast area will fall below freezing.Because of blustery winds associated with this system...wind chillvalues will bottom out around 10 degrees f around daybreak onWednesday which falls shy of a requirement for a Wind ChillAdvisory.The primary concerns include potential minir accumulation of snowtonight...if any...across our northern tier overnight. We willalso need to take a closer look at the need for a Wind Advisoryalong our coastal zones for gusts of 46 miles per hour or greater for even abrief time. We will be able to clarify these issues as 12z modeldata arrives this morning. The main change presently is to bumpup temperatures in the early and middle afternoon.&&Short term /Wednesday through Thursday night/...as of 3 am Tuesday...impressive low level thermal trough swinginginto the Carolinas on Wednesday and also decreasing in amplitude.Looks like the coldest 850mb temperatures thus achieved at 18z before someslight moderation. This temperature recovery will occur over the topof the 3kft keep boundary layer though and forecast soundings as well asMOS guidance show a frightfully cold afternoon with highs in the low30s north to upper 30s south. Some cirrus level moisture increasingWednesday night should prevent ideal rad cooling but the airmasswill still support low temperatures within a few degrees of 20 forWednesday night lows. Thursday brings an exit of the first shortwaveand an approach from the north-northwest of the next one...as well as the nextcold shot. Ahead of these features Thursday afternoon will moderateinto the middle 40s...still over 10 degrees shy of climatology. The cold airthat follows will be more severe than that of Wednesday and Thursdaynight lows should plunge solidly into the teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Whatever is trying to come through stuart and across the state line is simply outmatched. Totally drying up overhead and the sun is back out again. I'm thinking this is going to be an eastern nc special once it drops down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 To the guy with the WRF ensemble image... Where did that come from? That intrigues me to make a script to do that in Grads. I copied from the MA thread who said that it was on the Facebook page for the HopWRF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 We definitely need to watch for thundersnow later. Whoever gets in some heavier bands might have a shot at it. HRRR looks good for Eastern NC. Not sure what it was doing earlier. I would be surprised if someone in NC doesn't see thundersnow today. I guess I'm old fashioned again. I still listen for thundersnow. Who knew? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Seeing a flurry or two right now as I type this. Must be headed this way. You're out in the county correct? Yea man I'm right by the county police department Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 There's actually decent agreement between the short-range models on this death band. The HRRR gives me like 4" or something. Maybe it'll happen, though at best it's probably more like an inch or maybe two. I guess I'm old fashioned again. I still listen for thundersnow. Who knew? How about we look for lightning snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 This is more like it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The radar is really starting to fill in nicely to my west hoping the temps will keep dropping in our favor so by 2-3 we can actually start accumulating nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 51 degrees, partly cloudy and patiently awaiting the 3 flurries that may blow from off the top of Mt. Mitchell to IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 What's up with that precip back in N andS Dakota? Is that gonna get here tomorrow or just fizzle out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Maximum sunshine in downtown Raleigh. No clouds inbound. Should get maximum insolation just in time for the clouds to roll in leading to maximum insulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Temps dropping like a rock! Down to 57 from 60 in 30 min, clouds rolling in! Anxiously awaiting the rain showers ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Seeing a few clouds coming in from the west, but I'm not sure if they'll amount to anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Not sure if it's orographic lift over the NC mountains enhancing those bands but if those convective bands can continue to develop and swing thru the triad later on that could be fun for some of you guys to my south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 ^Whoa! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Looks like a good map. I think they just need to bump up totals in the Triad region and north into the 1-2 category as well based on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 They have increased it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Almost match.. minus the three flurries... I assume zero here 51 degrees, partly cloudy and patiently awaiting the 3 flurries that may blow from off the top of Mt. Mitchell to IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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