grambo Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I finally found the conversation regarding a potential ice storm this weekend for NNE. I live in Grand Isle, VT and actually had planned a trip to Montreal on the 22nd and 23rd, driving. How concerned should I be at this point in time? I'm thinking about buying a generator just based on the talk 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I finally found the conversation regarding a potential ice storm this weekend for NNE. I live in Grand Isle, VT and actually had planned a trip to Montreal on the 22nd and 23rd, driving. How concerned should I be at this point in time? I'm thinking about buying a generator just based on the talk 5 days out. . Getting a generator is never a bad idea in NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 This is obscene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 To put +17 or +18 at 850 in perspective... the record around 12/15 at OKX is +15C. The normal mean 850 temp in mid July is +15c too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 This is obscene. How to drive up everyone's dreamy, winter-time holiday spirits for the sole purpose of maximizing the joy of destroying their souls? Just run the Euro model... Seriously, 16C ? Okay... 86F on June 10th with mixing to 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2013 Author Share Posted December 17, 2013 I'm sure Euro ens were mild, but are they colder than the heat the op has? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I'm sure Euro ens were mild, but are they colder than the heat the op has? that warmth probably won't translate to the sfc too well. The snow pack will take a huge hit, and may disappear outside of piles at that, but ... albido combined with a snow pack at this time of year will negatively feed-back and will effect on the sounding. What I think is weird is that here we are going along with this persistent cold and then there's just this errant short duration mega-spike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I'm sure Euro ens were mild, but are they colder than the heat the op has? Much cooler but still warm. Probably +8/9c 850s for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 It's gonna have to obliterate 16 inches here. It's frustrating to see such deep arctic air over Quebec and yet the SE ridge bulges to Summertime levels. Lots of very dense fog coming if this verifies. that warmth probably won't translate to the sfc too well. The snow pack will take a huge hit, and may disappear outside of piles at that, but ... albido combined with a snow pack at this time of year will negatively feed-back and will effect on the sounding. What I think is weird is that here we are going along with this persistent cold and then there's just this errant short duration mega-spike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2013 Author Share Posted December 17, 2013 Much cooler but still warm. Probably +8/9c 850s for you.Thats better but still near disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 if we can get the WF timed right we should see very dense fog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 what's the Euro like longer term? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coastalfront Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I think we torch late December and the departures may be as impressive as next weeks cold EPO looks to go positive I still see no signs of any blocking and once we cut of the cold source its PAC jet city with a SE ridge. This 3 weeks out after next weeks cold Epic call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I think there were 70s in PA during the Quebec/NY North Country Ice Storm in January 1998. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Thats better but still near disaster If you are thinking about snowpack disaster, pay no attention to 850s...the 925mb and SFC levels are much colder. Some of the models have had low 30s at the surface under +10 850s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I know that the boundary stayed south of us around Albany. We had mostly cold rain ..mid 30's with only a bit of ice. The very serious ice started around exit 30 of the Northway and extended north to near Ste. Agathe. Further up near Tremblant it was almost all snow and a lot of it. I think there were 70s in PA during the Quebec/NY North Country Ice Storm in January 1998. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2013 Author Share Posted December 18, 2013 If you are thinking about snowpack disaster, pay no attention to 850s...the 925mb and SFC levels are much colder. Some of the models have had low 30s at the surface under +10 850s.Yeah I mean we know there will be some shallow cool air that will linger much longer than models have esp with 10-15 inch snowpack thruout the region. But I think our biggest worry is a day / night where it's like 50/48 with fog or something . If it's just 10 hours we can probably save some cover , but it's still a worry. I do like that cold high nosing down but we need more help still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 This is our salvation, that the models blow it trying to force that warm air in so fast at the surface. We sit at 35-40 most of Sunday before briefly blowing it out and mixing it down on sw winds overnight Sunday and a few hours of 50's before the crash and flash freeze Monday morning. I can easily forsee places like BUF being 50+ for 36 hours and I'm 50+ for only a few hours. If you are thinking about snowpack disaster, pay no attention to 850s...the 925mb and SFC levels are much colder. Some of the models have had low 30s at the surface under +10 850s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Foot of snow otg here but top 10" is low water content. This pack is going to get vaporized if we really torch with high DP's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 This is our salvation, that the models blow it trying to force that warm air in so fast at the surface. We sit at 35-40 most of Sunday before briefly blowing it out and mixing it down on sw winds overnight Sunday and a few hours of 50's before the crash and flash freeze Monday morning. I can easily forsee places like BUF being 50+ for 36 hours and I'm 50+ for only a few hours. Will the temp matter all that much if you end up with 3 or 4" of rain? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Will someone start a torch thread when it's a day or 2 closer ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 if it wasn't for this strongly negative EPO we would've been torching the entire month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 if it wasn't for this strongly negative EPO we would've been torching the entire month. That's like saying if it wasn't so cold we'd be above normal for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 That's like saying if it wasn't so cold we'd be above normal for the month. Pna, wpo, epo, all go slightly positive next week, then begin the trend back towards negative after Christmas. The NAO is very positive through the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 That's like saying if it wasn't so cold we'd be above normal for the month.If the Queen had balls she would King Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Are there any signs of a better Atlantic down the road? Or are we strictly relying out west again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Highly disappointed I am going to lose the snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Are there any signs of a better Atlantic down the road? Or are we strictly relying out west again? Relying on the west...but its going to be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Are there any signs of a better Atlantic down the road? Or are we strictly relying out west again? Relying on the west...but its going to be good. It would be nice to get a little help to the northeast to generate a few coastals. I like the frequent events but would like something more dynamic as we get deeper into the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Yeah I mean we know there will be some shallow cool air that will linger much longer than models have esp with 10-15 inch snowpack thruout the region. But I think our biggest worry is a day / night where it's like 50/48 with fog or something . If it's just 10 hours we can probably save some cover , but it's still a worry. I do like that cold high nosing down but we need more help stilllol, Are you seriously suggesting that by the time the torch gets here there will be a minimim of 10" of snow on the ground region wide? Did I mention lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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