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    West Islip, NY

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  1. Agreed. Definitely nice to see the first frozen precipitation in the area for the first time this year though
  2. BIG news for those that are looking for a cold and snowy winter on the EC. Still cautiously optimistic at this point though....
  3. May be a but earlier for this, nobody has really mentioned the MJO for the upcoming November and how that may impact weather on the EC. Food for thought at this juncture that is all.
  4. Places around NYC/CT/LI may actually see some thunderstorms later this evening. Would be welcome with the boring month we have had thus far precipitation wise compared to average
  5. Thats putting it lightly. I dont care if the pattern changes next month and the coast still gets rain. Just having coastal storms to track and make up for some of the precipitation deficits would be nice.
  6. Thats the period i am watching as well. Most globals such as the CMC, EURO and GFS have it in some form or another. Definitely a time period worth watching on the EC as a possible storm that could be brewing. LOTS will change before then thats for sure. I really want to see if this blocking has the legs to hang around for the winter or at least make its presence known often. Dont want anoverwhelming -NAO though.
  7. I agree with you 100% there. The WAR did help us greatly in 14-15. We get some more cooperation from the PNA it will only help. The Raging El Nino last year did indeed sink the PAC cooperation
  8. This pattern coming going into November and december certainly isn't indicative of a Nina-esque pattern. BIG question for me will be when blocking does setup will it stick around or at least take short breaks and reloading OR only be transient and not really establish itself?. Similar to winter's the past few years, when we had a snow threat on the EC, the Pacific really wasn't cooperative. I would like to see a more established and prominent +PNA this time around. Just my $.02 as of now
  9. Nope it does not. However, atleast now on some of the longer range forecast models we are seeing a more significant change to a more conducive pattern for snow as we head deeper into November. This includes IMMEDIATE NYC METRO as well.
  10. I should have said COASTAL PLAIN. Clearly you are not on the coastal plain in Rockland county lol
  11. IMO unless you are in Northern Rockland county on northward, this is a cold rain from start to finish. I can see areas from Northern Rockland, orange and SullivanCounty pick up a nice 1-4 inches. Depending on elevation and evaporational cooling of course. NYC metro on south will have to wait until deep into November to see any appreciable snow fall threats if not later, while the pattern transitions to troughiness in the east and Ridging in the west
  12. Hope this is a joke because that would fail miserably. Inland areas arent gonna do nowhere near as well as coastal folks with this storm
  13. Umm once past sunday the cold is better than marginal and by next weekend we start getting into the real cold. Marginal is inaccurate
  14. What? It is not suppression its just timing with phasing. This isnt an overwhelming cold/dry pattern that is suppressed. So many vorts coming across the CONUS the next 7-14 days that some will inevitably turn the corner but this is NOT suppression
  15. This storm will likely be rain for the coast and maybe some mangled flakes towards the end. Most of the moisture is in the warm sector of this storm