Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 As we are now into the winter season..and we're facing several record cold shots to round out November..interrupted by Scooter's 50's and rainstorm..I thought it was time we started looking twds Dec. Lots of indications and signs that this may be a December that we all look upon fondly in the coming years PAIN TRAIN...AK RIDGE UP TO ARCTIC CIRCLE. Very cold DEC pattern East of Rockies. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_sup814.gif www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 How long will it last? I think December starts out with some good chances of wintry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 I said at or above normal for nov w/ pattern change around the 25th. I think we seem to be heading into a at or below normal pattern. I don't see anything to suggest far below normal or historic December. This anomalous shot of cold air in the end of nov with hints of colder air dominating through early December has my interest perked up. December will be close to average snowfall at most locales. More of a struggle on the immediate coast due to the fact its only Dec of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 GEFS are cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 How long will it last? I think December starts out with some good chances of wintry weather. Until the 13th or so.IMHO. I see a warmer spell from the 14th through Christmas then cold. All speculation but I made my six week progs yesterday and that is what it showed. did pretty good first six weeks, will see how the second six pan out. all fun and speculation on my part anyways. experimental and for fun WE 12/13/13 Continued well below normal with some snow chances during this period with LES events -3 to -6 W/E 12/20/13 Much warmer period with a significant snow to rain event for SNE possible heavy snow way inland before a warm spell +2-+5 possible snowstorm on the 21st WE 12/27/13 Much warmer with a possible Grinch storm cutter temps +3,+5 W/E 1/4/14 Return to below normal cold possible coastal snowstorm around the 4th -2,-4 W/E 1/11/14 Much warmer than normal throught the NE , +4-+6 W/E 1/18/14 coldest air of the season with a possible record setting cold -4 to -7, clipper Miller B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2013 Author Share Posted November 23, 2013 There's been a consistant signal for storm around Dec 3-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 There's been a consistant signal for storm around Dec 3-4 Quite a strong one on the euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Boy if there were a pattern to have some fun with, this one sure seems up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Boy if there were a pattern to have some fun with, this one sure seems up there. Reminds me of what we were looking at late Jan last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 euro ens look good. cold. maybe a little relaxation / moderation around day 10 perhaps but overall...cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Teleconnection Tippy is having a pants tent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Boy if there were a pattern to have some fun with, this one sure seems up there. You have to admit this has turned out far better than most were expecting. Nice start. We are beating down SSTs and have some impressive departures. Now hopefully we get some significant snow threats inland in a week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Lol...verbatim I get a little snow in Princeton while most of you are smoking. I would toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Still strong dateline to at times AK ridging, but the SE ridge is trying to sneak in. It's good because it might increase precip chances, but also introduces ptypes into the question. The overall look still is good to me, but little details like storm track cannot be figured out this far out. It includes anything from Miller Bs to cutters. Don't say I didn't warn you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Still strong dateline to at times AK ridging, but the SE ridge is trying to sneak in. It's good because it might increase precip chances, but also introduces ptypes into the question. The overall look still is good to me, but little details like storm track cannot be figured out this far out. It includes anything from Miller Bs to cutters. Don't say I didn't warn you. ens.PNG Looks like a great pattern! Would you say that ridge is poleward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Hopefully the poleward ridge is a stable /consistent feature on the next several days of modeling. Still a ways out on december and we will see how good it looks a week from now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Looks like a great pattern! Would you say that ridge is poleward? Well yeah, but if the trough in the west is deep enough then it won't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 i still don't like the AO. cutters between cold shots? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 i still don't like the AO. cutters between cold shots? Certainly could be cutters, obviously we don't know, but it's a risk. I'm feeling SWFE and messy storms. Hopefully not too messy. I like the overall look here, but I also understand the risks on either side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Pretty good ensemble consensus moving forward on the pattern. Overall cold but threat of cutters. The best snow chances could be overrunning which could be prolific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Certainly could be cutters, obviously we don't know, but it's a risk. I'm feeling SWFE and messy storms. Hopefully not too messy. I like the overall look here, but I also understand the risks on either side. Dec 2007 had a raging +AO, and so did Dec 2008 for the first 3 weeks...we had plenty of snow both months. Its possible we get cutters, but we can snow in this pattern too if we are getting cold air delivery which we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Dec 2007 had a raging +AO, and so did Dec 2008 for the first 3 weeks...we had plenty of snow both months. Its possible we get cutters, but we can snow in this pattern too if we are getting cold air delivery which we are. Oh yeah no doubt. My post was to hopefully let people know that the world isn't ending or it's not a bust if we do get a cutter because I feel sometimes people think that when we say a pattern looks good, it means all snow all the time. Just want people to know we can't see every detail. Like I said, I like the overall look, but we still could get a non-crystalline event as they say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Oh yeah no doubt. My post was to hopefully let people know that the world isn't ending or it's not a bust if we do get a cutter because I feel sometimes people think that when we say a pattern looks good, it means all snow all the time. Just want people to know we can't see every detail. Like I said, I like the overall look, but we still could get a non-crystalline event as they say. We got a cutter with a strong -NAO on 12/13/10....yeah, doesn't matter what the index numbers are, cutters can still happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 We got a cutter with a strong -NAO on 12/13/10....yeah, doesn't matter what the index numbers are, cutters can still happen Didn't we also get a big warmup (brief) right after the Boxing Day storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Euro now liking the late range cutter idea. Still quite early so maybe we cash in the week of 12/9? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 12z euro pretty much in step with the ensembles which have hinted at a relaxation period sometime between the 2-5th of December...it has a solid cold shot behind the turkey day storm then moderates and eventually has a warmer cutter coming out of the plains next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 12z euro pretty much in step with the ensembles which have hinted at a relaxation period sometime between the 2-5th of December...it has a solid cold shot behind the turkey day storm then moderates and eventually has a warmer cutter coming out of the plains next week. It sure looks like a huge reload a later beyond the range and perhaps a snowier potential in the positioning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 The stuff around 12/3 is way out there..I'm not sure whether I'd lean any type of storm track yet. There's pretty good cold out ahead of it with a very potent high pressure in Quebec...that could easily have wintry ptype written all over it. Could be an icing threat in the interior if mid-levels advect warm. Regardless, the pattern is shaping up to have a ton of cold available in the northern tier and that will give us chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 12z euro pretty much in step with the ensembles which have hinted at a relaxation period sometime between the 2-5th of December...it has a solid cold shot behind the turkey day storm then moderates and eventually has a warmer cutter coming out of the plains next week. The relaxation period has been well modeled. Still looks on track, but before then...maybe something in the cards prior? I've seen hints on guidance of that . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Are there any currier and Ives postcards with people standing in the mud? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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