mahk_webstah Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 i still don't like the AO. cutters between cold shots? well lets hope not. 93-94 though.... good up here but you guys were borderline. generally good north of philly that year. all depends on how much cold air is able to press in from canada, and where the high is positioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 well lets hope not. 93-94 though.... good up here but you guys were borderline. generally good north of philly that year. all depends on how much cold air is able to press in from canada, and where the high is positioned. '93-'94 was a negative AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 That's a nice SWFE pattern or even Miller B look at the end of the ensembles with weak SE ridging. I'd love to lock that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 That's a nice SWFE pattern or even Miller B look at the end of the ensembles with weak SE ridging. I'd love to lock that. How does the Dec 3-4 threat look on the ensemble mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 How does the Dec 3-4 threat look on the ensemble mean? SWFE into SNE with a high to the north. Of course that would probably track a bit east in reality, but the idea is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Didn't we also get a big warmup (brief) right after the Boxing Day storm? Yeah, I went hiking New Year's Day 2011. Temps. were in the 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 '93-'94 was a negative AO. '93-'94 was a negative AO. ooops then. I thought there was a trough up in northern canada but an aleutian ridge and sneak highs over lower quebec. Or was it a trough over Hudson Bay with the -AO just nw of that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 ooops then. I thought there was a trough up in northern canada but an aleutian ridge and sneak highs over lower quebec. Or was it a trough over Hudson Bay with the -AO just nw of that? It was a big +NAO...but there was enough ridging north of AK to keep the AO negative for the winter. The PV spent a lot of time around Hudson Bay that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Signs of perhaps something sneaking in 12/1 or 12/2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 ah...thank you. This year is almost acting like a -AO to some extent isn't it? With the ridging north of the Aleutians? I always think of +AO locking up the cold air and -AO pushing it south. In 93-94 he philly north suburbs were the dividing line between glory and a lot of ice and rain. I think New York had 2 storms over 16 inches that winter, and 3 or 4 over 10 inches. And I know it was epic further north. Coldest I ever experienced in my years living down that way. I recall a day standing a suit and coat, with my dress shoes waiting in a line for a taxi. 5 degrees and windy. i though I was going to lose my feet, I've never felt anything like that. On the other hand, every decent storm changed over in center city philly. I like the steady supply of cold air this year. It doesn't seem random, it feels like a real pattern, and sustainable. With Canada cold and snow covered we probably have a source of cold even in some marginal setups. If we have cold air to our north we are going to have good times ahead. We are all impatient of course, but perhaps this storm will just end up a little further east, help the mountains and continue the step down to solid snow cover across all of New England. I think that is where we are headed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Signs of perhaps something sneaking in 12/1 or 12/2. Signs of perhaps something sneaking in 12/1 or 12/2. clipper mlller b or mini swfe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 clipper mlller b or mini swfe? Eh, kind of weak maybe SWFE? No a strong signal, but signs of a low going west with maybe a reflection to the south. Nothing big, just something to watch. December is looking to start out gradient-like with big cold in the interior west and plains with us near the dividing line. The euro wants to bring the MJO near the IO which would favor a more -PNA and warmer risk east, but we'll see. The GEFS are more into the western hemi and Africa. The cold will be in Canada and will provide us with times of chilly wx for sure, I just expect some volatility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Eh, kind of weak maybe SWFE? No a strong signal, but signs of a low going west with maybe a reflection to the south. Nothing big, just something to watch. December is looking to start out gradient-like with big cold in the interior west and plains with us near the dividing line. The euro wants to bring the MJO near the IO which would favor a more -PNA and warmer risk east, but we'll see. The GEFS are more into the western hemi and Africa. The cold will be in Canada and will provide us with times of chilly wx for sure, I just expect some volatility. If the MJo is weak then it wouldn't have much of an impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 If the MJo is weak then it wouldn't have much of an impact. Well yes and no. There are factors that also go into this equation of synoptics governing the global state, but where we have neutral ENSO..any forcing helps. As long as that ridge stays amped we should be ok, but I still expect volatility. It will not be cold and snowy all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Well yes and no. There are factors that also go into this equation of synoptics governing the global state, but where we have neutral ENSO..any forcing helps. As long as that ridge stays amped we should be ok, but I still expect volatility. It will not be cold and snowy all the time. However, the wild card, is any and I mean any ridging near Greenland because that will help drag the cold east. Some signs that may happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Well yes and no. There are factors that also go into this equation of synoptics governing the global state, but where we have neutral ENSO..any forcing helps. As long as that ridge stays amped we should be ok, but I still expect volatility. It will not be cold and snowy all the time.I hope there is more cold and snow in e coastal mass then last december. I think it rained 6 straight storms, w one having a nice surprise change to rain along immediate e mass.The gefs super ens roll'd fwd looks like crap compared to the one kev started this thread with, big puke -PNA and no blocking. Not saying that is what we will get but it looks cold for Plains /mid west and mild east coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I hope there is more cold and snow in e coastal mass then last december. I think it rained 6 straight storms, w one having a nice surprise change to rain along immediate e mass. The gefs super ens roll'd fwd looks like crap compared to the one kev started this thread with, big puke -PNA and no blocking. Not saying that is what we will get but it looks cold for Plains /mid west and mild east coast It's possible this is when we may relax. I am Noticing that signal possible during the beginning of December. We've had good luck with a -PNA, but you also role dice a bit with no blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2013 Author Share Posted November 25, 2013 Dear God..what happened to our wintry event in early Dec. Euro looks horrific. Please do not let that happen and hope the ensembles were colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Dear God..what happened to our wintry event in early Dec. Euro looks horrific. Please do not let that happen and hope the ensembles were colder It's entirely possible as stated. It looks like a couple of messy events to start the month as the PNA drops and forces lows over us. Looks like it could be a messy event over the interior and NNE but it could also be a little more west. Volatility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2013 Author Share Posted November 25, 2013 It's entirely possible as stated. It looks like a couple of messy events to start the month as the PNA drops and forces lows over us. Looks like it could be a messy event over the interior and NNE but it could also be a little more west. Volatility. I'd be happy with messy events..snow to ice to rain ending as snow or whatever..The Euro has rain to rain to rain ending as warmth..Do the Ens look like that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I'd be happy with messy events..snow to ice to rain ending as snow or whatever..The Euro has rain to rain to rain ending as warmth..Do the Ens look like that? It's only for a relatively short period to me and the ensembles overall show that huge ridge rendering the pacific still favorable, The deep RNA is transient but tendency for some RNA to be there. We just have to hope the deep RNA is not recurrent. Meanwhile we've done well overall when these have been progged in November. It is too early for non stop deep winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2013 Author Share Posted November 25, 2013 It's only for a relatively short period to me and the ensembles overall show that huge ridge rendering the pacific still favorable, The deep RNA is transient but tendency for some RNA to be there. We just have to hope the deep RNA is not recurrent. Meanwhile we've done well overall when these have been progged in November. It is too early for non stop deep winter.Well the talk was we'd have the chance of some snow/ swfe events the first week if Dec and this morning the op models don't show that at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Well the talk was we'd have the chance of some snow/ swfe events the first week if Dec and this morning the op models don't show that at all We may have to wait a week. Meanwhile most have a little wintry event around 12/1-2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Well the talk was we'd have the chance of some snow/ swfe events the first week if Dec and this morning the op models don't show that at all Man you completely missed my point yesterday. This is why I get frustrated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I'd be happy with messy events..snow to ice to rain ending as snow or whatever..The Euro has rain to rain to rain ending as warmth..Do the Ens look like that? Ensembles verbatim look like snow to rain or ice in interior. You could easily be rain. Also, day 7-8 could be a sneaky event as well. A little snow to perhaps ice. Nothing much more you should expect for early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2013 Author Share Posted November 25, 2013 Man you completely missed my point yesterday. This is why I get frustrated.Im sorry you get upset so easily. No one is expecting wall to wall snow. Just winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Im sorry you get upset so easily. No one is expecting wall to wall snow. Just winterI just wish you would listen. I actually put in time to explain my thoughts.These patterns can kind of yo yo a bit before the cold really oozes south. OnThe road, but I'll have more later. That ridge is such that the cold will want to plunge south first into the high plains first. It's possible it will take until mid month to really get into good winter wx. Hopefully not. Messy events to start the month are very possible. Canada is cold and ridge is still amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2013 Author Share Posted November 25, 2013 I just wish you would listen. I actually put in time to explain my thoughts.These patterns can kind of yo yo a bit before the cold really oozes south. On The road, but I'll have more later. That ridge is such that the cold will want to plunge south first into the high plains first. It's possible it will take until mid month to really get into good winter wx. Hopefully not. Messy events to start the month are very possible. Canada is cold and ridge is still amped. Messy is fine. I just freaked out when I saw the op Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Messy is fine. I just freaked out when I saw the op Euro It's an option. Meanwhile maybe sneaky 12/1 or 12/2 deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Euro ensembles DO have a period of mildness centered around d9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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