40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Hmm..are these forecasts or troll posts..YOU be the judge I don't see the harm in using levity to cope with a $hitty outlook.....no one gets angry when we joke about people needing to vault across the driveway in order to heave snow up over monsterous bankings....why not use humor to cope with what looks like a complete, and utter vanquishing of our snowpack just prior to Xmas?? I'd honestly prefer to either have it ignored, or joked about...and seeing as though this is indeed a forum to discuss meteorology, the former is not an option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Also I know I stated this a few days ago as a sort of wild guess based on some model interpretation, but still not out of the question we see something Christmas day or the following day. Im more interested in how the -EPO can rebound after it goes nuetral after being strongly positive for a while now. Pretty much only thing that has kept us from torching this winter thus far. But yea your right something small maybe arond xmas next week after the mini torch and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 All I had said was that I thought the press of arctic air might be under modeled and the wave tracks more south than progged. If that is going to be the case, it wouldn't be reflected yet in today's 12z runs anyway. So I don't think the 12Z GFS should surprise anyone. I don't rise or fall on one run of that crappy model and the Euro is not infallible a week out. It might torch briefly,...definitely gonna see a few above normal daily averages, but still room for hope, especially where I am wnw of ALB. it's the 12 z GFS so it's got to be right. What was i thinking? You and Ryan are right..60's all weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Im more interested in how the -EPO can rebound after it goes nuetral after being strongly positive for a while now. Pretty much only thing that has kept us from torching this winter thus far. But yea your right something small maybe arond xmas next week after the mini torch and rain It does look to try to come back. Fortunately I think we still are below normal here with some storm chances while it relaxes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Glad to hear that. I'm only going off what is said here because I'm down at a rental place we still own in Saugerties ...38 miles below ALB shoveling snow, etc. I see they had about .3 of sleet on top of their 8 or 9 inches and then maybe .25 of snow on top of the sleet. Pings never reached me at home. GEFS are much cooler. Still looks dicey for SNE in terms of warmth, but must me some members much colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 The GFS is not just a few hours of warmth either... couple of days...maybe 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 It does look to try to come back. Fortunately I think we still are below normal here with some storm chances while it relaxes. If you had told me the AO and NAO would be higher than a rock star throughout the month of December, yet I'd see 11" of snow and sit solidly below normal halfway through the month, I would have taken it and ran faster than Tip's Valentine's day date a few years back. It does blow that this relaxation, mild up, warm up, cutter...what ever is the most politically correct term at this percise moment, is so exqusitely placed on the doorstep of xmass, but this unfortunate timing has been hinted at a for a couple of seeks now..since the start of the month, really. This is the character of -epo/+nao/ao "gradient" Decemebers.....you get your snow and cold, but the pattern is susceptible to relaxations and cutters because we are always on "thin ice" (pun intended) synoptically speaking. It happened in both of the pants-tent-Decemebers of 2007 and 2008....cutters as we approached xmas. Folks forget that because each occasion represented the one fart during a 31 day orgasm. Like I was saying a week ago when guys were ready to stab their adam's apples....past graident-Decemebers didn't really get cranking until mid month....as fate would have it, so did this one. There were also relaxation after the season's inaugural onslaught, and just prior to xmas, which we are also setting up for. We are getting our graident-December....remarkably inline with the past couple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On the 12Z GFS gridded stuff, the time spent above 40 in ALB is 12Z Sunday to 12Z Monday and it spikes to 62 Sunday night.... we'll see. LOL What would really happen in my location probably is dense fog and low/mid 30's followed by a several hour period where the warmth mixes down and we get 50's anyway...then it drops all day Monday. The GFS is not just a few hours of warmth either... couple of days...maybe 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Another thought....95-95 analog being thrown around as a good comparison in the NYC sub-forum ( more so in the no snow december thread ). We all know what happened by january and the record snows in the mid-atlantic/NE region. My arguement is werent the teleconnectors this time of month during that winter showing the blocking towards january unlike this month where its not budging? Currently it shows it staying strongly positive through dec. 30th. Would love to see another 96' redux but also missing the active STJ that was present as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 It actually doesn't have a lot to do with the cold, it's how it handles the SW cutoff. The GFS ejects A s/w and allows a furnace. If that does not happen them a colder solution is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 It actually doesn't have a lot to do with the cold, it's how it handles the SW cutoff. The GFS ejects A s/w and allows a furnace. If that does not happen them a colder solution is possible. Euro bias will hold it back, we will all get excited..."the king, the king!" and then it will cave to the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Jesus that is big ice on the euro for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Jesus that is big ice on the euro for the interior. for what time period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Cool ....better to preserve my 15 inches. I'd take ice. Jesus that is big ice on the euro for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 for what time period? Day 6-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Jesus that is big ice on the euro for the interior. yeah congrats dendrite on no power Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 euro has surface 32F isotherm stalled over N MA...but like +4C 850s into C NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2013 Author Share Posted December 16, 2013 What is the Euro doing that the GFS wasn't? Holding sw energy back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Euro bias will hold it back, we will all get excited..."the king, the king!" and then it will cave to the gfs. Cool ....better to preserve my 15 inches. I'd take ice. hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 temp gradient across SNE on the euro sunday night is awesome. 59F at BDL...32F at FIT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 temp gradient across SNE on the euro sunday night is awesome. 59F at BDL...32F at FIT Impressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 lets get the PNA to rise just a like wiz at a miley concert http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Its like 70F in DC at the same time...it could really torch on the warm side of that front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 that's an interesting set-up as modeled. not sure much of SNE will be in the game with that much energy going west and such a deep S flow, but perhaps. definitely would have to watch NH/VT though for serious icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Mets, How would a rising PNA this fri-sat bode for the sun-mon period positioning of frontal boundary....further south ...no? blizzy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2013 Author Share Posted December 16, 2013 Its like 70F in DC at the same time...it could really torch on the warm side of that front. You think there's a better chance at SNE being on the warm or cool side? In other words..will the cold press/snowcover end up forcing things south or better chance that the s/w is too strong to the west and torch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 You think there's a better chance at SNE being on the warm or cool side? In other words..will the cold press/snowcover end up forcing things south or better chance that the s/w is too strong to the west and torch? As modeled, I'd lean cool right now...we might not be frozen though. It could be like a 35-40F rain...but its too early to really say much about ptype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Its like 70F in DC at the same time...it could really torch on the warm side of that front. High confidence forecast for the weekend. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 It's probably gonna be a classic cold start with a little ice inland in the ORH hills while the front moves through and stalls in SNH or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 It's probably gonna be a classic cold start with a little ice inland in the ORH hills while the front moves through and stalls in SNH or something. I'd lean heavily on climo in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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