wxmeddler Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I don't this sounding would be rain? *snip image* That's all snow. DCA soundings... 39 I think is snow but 42 should be snow 39 -- http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/NAM_218_2013030418_F39_39.0000N_77.0000W.png 42 -- http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/NAM_218_2013030418_F42_39.0000N_77.0000W.png Your pushing Sleet/Snow at hr 39 there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Younar Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NAM soundings look fine for DC (950 mb around -1C once we saturate the column) Is that DCA or NW DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yeah I'm sorry but I can't see a lot of that being just rain for DC. Even east of there will see accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 For all freaking out about the snow maps Instant Weather Maps has done pretty good with them and they have DC and central MD at 14-16 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Is that DCA or NW DC? its from twisterdata and its the gridpoint just NE of DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NAM soundings look fine for DC (950 mb around -1C once we saturate the column) They are really good, especially after 9z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Where is IAN? He's the clown................map expert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Temps are looking to be more and more of a problem for the DC and Baltimore crew as this thing keeps coming north. Loudoun and West should do amazing but I'd be sweating in it the near DC or Baltimore suburbs right now. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/18znamsnow_NE060.gif Does anyone feel concerned that this is not all snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I don't this sounding would be rain? snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Way overdone likely. Ot but imagine the coastal community beatdown up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Thread is getting cluttered with bad analysis. Let the mets do ptype and sounding analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 For all freaking out about the snow maps Instant Weather Maps has done pretty good with them and they have DC and central MD at 14-16 inches. It's that time again. 18z NAM total snowfall from IWM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 this isn't scientific at all, but going by "feel"...i just don't see how a lot of this can be rain. we've had a nice airmass in place for the last few days. it "feels" like a snowstorm is coming, not a rainstorm. this isn't like march 2001 when i was out in shorts and a t-shirt the day before they were calling for a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Temps are looking to be more and more of a problem for the DC and Baltimore crew as this thing keeps coming north. Loudoun and West should do amazing but I'd be sweating in it the near DC or Baltimore suburbs right now. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/18znamsnow_NE060.gif No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burnbomb Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Does anyone feel concerned that this is not all snow? I'm not a met or expert here and I can tell you that by intuition and by how the mets/experts and even amateurs like me are reacting to the latest runs that the rates and dynamics are expected to overcome temp issues for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 You guys are going to roll your eyes but JB gets credit. He said back in Mid February that he expected the early March pattern to yield some kind of "superstorm" for the Mid Atlantic. This is pretty darn close Except until a day ago he was saying it was around march 15th. A blind squirrel finds a nut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Feeling greedy....bring the darker purples up to FDK please . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 You have to be doing back-flips in Winchester...16+ I would have been happy with a solid 6 inch snow. But it appears we are going to get crushed. Now I will be disappointed if we dont get a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skipper Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Can we please keep the analysis to the mets and pros here in this thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Except until a day ago he was saying it was around march 15th. A blind squirrel finds a nut. he is excited about that time period too...i think he did say that last event before the pattern change would be a superstorm but he did say that the MA would have a big storm also. He calls for so many storms...i cant keep track of when and what Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 lol Really. Where is this warm air supposed to come from? I'll go out on a limb here and say those with 850's under freezing and good precip have no worries. I'll bet a dime to a dollar that temps end up busting low on Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Man if the NAM verified it would be a NESIS 4 IMO, heavy snow from you guys to SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Really. Where is this warm air supposed to come from? I'll go out on a limb here and say those with 850's under freezing and good precip have no worries. I'll bet a dime to a dollar that temps end up busting low on Wed. I kind of agree....i think for the most part even DCA can overcome their BL....maybe they suffer a little in the early am,....I see DCA mostly 33-34 once it is ripping....NW DC 32-33....you of course will be 31 and getting pummeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Man if the NAM verified it would be a NESIS 4 IMO, heavy snow from you guys to SNE. a lot of NE turns to rain on the NAM fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Were rooting for all of us in the I-95 corridor. Could be like the JMA coup storm of 2006 for us all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 a lot of NE turns to rain on the NAM fwiwafter 12'' falls, ill take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Starting right now, if I have to pinky more than 2 of your posts, you're getting 5 posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The Models have been pretty consistent for 4 days straight. There was a glitch run on the NAM a few runs back. Very impressive performance though so far. Although nothing has verified. I truly believe DC will get double digits with this storm. Which is truly historic in March. DC Metro wide 12+ seems like it is very possible. Amazing numbers in March if you think about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Temp setup reminds me a good bit of April '97. DC probably start off as some light rain, and flip fairly quickly to heavy, wet snow. Would agree spot on with Matt's temp guess, 33-34 DCA, 32-33 NW DC. Sounding are pretty good considering how marginal this is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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