packbacker Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Sorry about the IMBY- how does CHO do with surface temps an QPF on the euro? 0.1 to 1.3 during heaviest precip, amazing the differences precip makes. Looks like 1.8" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Based on the 18z Wednesday map DT just posted, surface low placement at that time looks IDENTICAL between the GFS and Euro. Then the Euro does it's funky SE jog thingy and the GFS goes NE. The funky action of the euro jog adds even more confidence in favor of euro. Very nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Based on the 18z Wednesday map DT just posted, surface low placement at that time looks IDENTICAL between the GFS and Euro. Then the Euro does it's funky SE jog thingy and the GFS goes NE. I found this in the comments on DT's post about the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Keep in mind the euro does tend to Underdo the precip shield size on these systems. I would not be surprised to see even SNJ get 6+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Imo if the euro ens are north of op it would be nail in the coffin to post winter storm warnings confidently. You would then naturally expect another north trend in overnight euro. You have to be curious how the rain snow line develops obviously. A place considered to be out of jackpot prestorm might luck out by being further north and west. I think as long as banding develops as modeled there will be no problem staying snow away from the normally warmer spots. An isothermal paste typhoon tip blue snow bomb might occur in spots. Significant power outages might be expected along with moderare to somewhat strong winds. Yes, there is always the rogue band parked over northern VA and northern MD. The Euro depiction (and especially the GFS and NAM depictions) would support such a band, albeit not in the same exact spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 34 degrees or so... so its a wet snow bomb It's going to be really bad whoever get's banded, trees/branches down everywhere. I fully expect the Euro to tick a little more N with the heaviest precip, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTutton Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 1.75 for RVA and a nice flip to snow on the back end. Accumulating decently especially in more populated part of the western Metro. Oh and by the way, us folks in central Virginia apologize greatly for posting in here, we should really know that the term Mid-Atlantic is exclusive to DC/Baltimore and it's exurbs. We'll happily go back to our sub-sub forum that folks in the 703/571/301/443 have relegated us to. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 DCA qpf? Saw IAD 1.2" QPF, I wouldn't even worry about QPF on the Euro, I would use the 4km NAM starting tonight for better QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 RIC proper gets close to an inch after the changeover. Terrible ratios likely though. Comma head moves right over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The euro is going to have one last tiny jump N at 0z. It's still having issues resolving the problem in which I pointed out late last night with the revolving s/w around the gulf of ME low. The GFS,NAM, RUC, SREF's, all the American guidance has already resolved this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 1.2" QPF, I wouldn't even worry about QPF on the Euro, I would use the 4km NAM starting tonight for better QPF. Um...no. 4km NAM is NOT what you want for accurate QPF. Might be want you want for weenie excitement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Richmond is rain Looks like they get 2-4" of very wet snow at the end, but a LOT of rain first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yes, there is always the rogue band parked over northern VA and northern MD. The Euro depiction (and especially the GFS and NAM depictions) would support such a band, albeit not in the same exact spot. The NAM fsu banding site should be updated for the NAM now. That should look quite impressive if someone wants to screenshot and post it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Really nice run of the Euro. It caved. It moved about 50% of the way to the GFS, not a total cave yet but thats 2 runs now that has edged towards the GFS while the GFS has remained a ROCK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Um...no. 4km NAM is NOT what you want for accurate QPF. Might be want you want for weenie excitement. Well for big events I am sure you are right, but for our little piddly events down in RDU it was fairly good. You like SREF's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Well for big events I am sure you are right, but for our little piddly events down in RDU it was fairly good. You like SREF's? As some of our subforum modeler met's have attested to, the ARW members of the SREFs have some issues apparently. I thought they were good the last 2-3 winters, but they haven't been great this year. I'd say go with a GFS/Euro blend. The HPC map Ian just posted looks pretty good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Untitled-13.gif To me that looks like a couple-few hour difference in timing and virtually no difference in track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 To me that looks like a couple-few hour difference in timing and virtually no difference in track. pretty much. the main diff is the se jog the euro has been doing. la la lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Nice find Ian. Is it just me or does GFS stacking make more sense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 RIC proper gets close to an inch after the changeover. Terrible ratios likely though. Comma head moves right over. For reference, the March 1993 superstorm was 9" Flat Rock / 3" Midlothian / 1" RIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 To me that looks like a couple-few hour difference in timing and virtually no difference in track. Looks a bit odd on the EURO side... still the last vestiges of a transfer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 ImageUploadedByTapatalk1362422295.881758.jpg you forgot the one before it , slacker! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 if EUro loses the SE jog, I would expect heavier qpf to make it NE than currently depicted ending up similar to GFS THe euro does this sometimes, might be its higher resolution, I dont know, but it sometimes stalls out a system too soon. Did it in New ENgland a month ago. Each run has the low make it a bit further east before that weird loop, my thinking is the SE loop/jump never actually happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 We should probably step away from overanalyzing bl temp stuff a little bit. Gfs threw a thermal curve so it will be interesting to see what the next couple runs do with the trend. Current airmass is very dry and cold for this time of year. We can use actual obs and balloon data along with short range models to make common sense decisions tomorrow. Warmth shouldn't be deep. Wetbulb temps leading into precip is an important part of nowcasting. Every degree means a lot this time. I know many know this already. Figured I'd say something before euro temps get drilled on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Untitled-13.gif looks about the same position to me. Pretty good spot to throw precip up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Verbatim I looked at the banding site. Judging by fronto best banding would be somewhere dc/balt/n de or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Verbatim I looked at the banding site. Judging by fronto best banding would be somewhere dc/balt/n de or so. I'll take what the NAM was showing at 12Z that sim rad at 51-54 was up there with anything from 09/10 <d@mn temps> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.