Herb@MAWS Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 More like the HoCo jackpot of 09-10 Yeah, wasn't that the one where Columbia stole the show w/something like 22"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 seems to go through a transformation around 45 and then the 7H gets its act together again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 GFS is like right at the same spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Looks like it is just cranking up at 51.. Blues will be there in the next two frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 A little warmer aloft, and definitely warmer than the NAM. Otherwise, the QPF is huge again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Wow...It holds...great run..We'll have to see if King Euro caves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 1.75+ for all western burbs...2"+ for winchester ~1.7 for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Wow...It holds...great run..We'll have to see if King Euro caves QPF looks more realistic than NAM...people talk about warmer, but I think we should be good at the right time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 A little warmer aloft, and definitely warmer than the NAM. Otherwise, the QPF is huge again. NAM is likely too cold. I'd take the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Wow...It holds...great run..We'll have to see if King Euro caves I'd like the 850 temps a little colder earlierbut for JI and west of I95 it is a great run. Not so great for mby though I'm guessing I cool as the low pulls east and the 850 temps collapse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Wow...It holds...great run..We'll have to see if King Euro caves The axis of heavy precip has been almost unbelievably consistent over the last 4 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Plasters Boston at 69. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Overall it is a wider area of precip.. little bit less.. but the 1 inch QPF boundary is pretty expansive.. pretty much whole state of MD.. with the .75 up in to south central PA... this looks fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GFS above freezing from 950mb to the surface for a fair portion of the day on Wednesday...not sure why yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 looks like the 8-12" line makes it to my backyard. 12"-18" loudoun and west.. winterwxluvr jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The axis of heavy precip has been almost unbelievably consistent over the last 4 runs. I don't think i've ever seen it lasered in like this. Even going back to the graphic I posted w/ 24-48 hours ago it's just remarkable how locked in the gfs is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 GFS above freezing from 950mb to the surface for a fair portion of the day on Wednesday...not sure why yet. This might be a little worrisome? Or does the GFS run too warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 looks like the 8-12" line makes it to my backyard. 12"-18" loudoun and west.. winterwxluvr jackpot. How do you get those maps so fast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 This might be a little worrisome? Or does the GFS run too warm? I don't believe the GFS has a warm bias in the BL like the Euro does sometimes. Maybe chris87 or dtk can answer that more precisely. It is a bit worrisome, but it's the first time I've seen it show the freezing level that high since I started really looking at soundings yesterday. Have to see the skew-T in a few minutes when it comes out. Might just be showing an isothermal layer from around 950 to the surface at around 0.5-1C. That won't be too worrisome. If it shows a true warm nose somewhere, that's a bit more dicey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 850's definitely warmer.....but surface looks better. DCA: WED 00Z 06-MAR 0.8 -1.7 0.10 WED 06Z 06-MAR 0.6 -0.7 0.46 WED 12Z 06-MAR 1.4 -0.2 0.33 WED 18Z 06-MAR 1.2 -1.8 0.48 THU 00Z 07-MAR 1.4 -3.0 0.42 THU 06Z 07-MAR 0.5 -3.2 0.02 THU 12Z 07-MAR 0.1 -3.2 0.01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 If anyone wants to talk about Boston, kindly head to the New England forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Gfs hasn't budge with the precip over our area since 00z. It now has 3.4 liquid near bos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 LWX's NMM 12km model shows a nice deform band right over northern VA through DC. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/lwx_nmm12g/hover.php?fld=wrf_reflectivity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Clown map: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfssnowdepth060.gif and hr 39 dca sounding: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.lat=38.8910&sounding.lon=-77.1680&sndclick=y&prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=03&model_dd=04&model_init_hh=12&fhour=39¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=y&output=image&view=large&archive=false both look great to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Clown map: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfssnowdepth060.gif and hr 39 dca sounding: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.lat=38.8910&sounding.lon=-77.1680&sndclick=y&prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=03&model_dd=04&model_init_hh=12&fhour=39¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=y&output=image&view=large&archive=false both look great to me. the problem for us along I95 is from 12Z Wednesday on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 How do you get those maps so fast? pay site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The axis of heavy precip has been almost unbelievably consistent over the last 4 runs. This is something I commented on about a week ago. For the last month or so, especially on the big storms, it seems the models once within about 72 hours have shown a remarkable consitency with each other and with the storms they were modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 the problem for us along I95 is from 12Z Wednesday on would early snowcover help us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I mentioned it earlier in the thread the GFS seems to go through a transformation around 45 hrs that can be seen on this 7H map the dry slot nearly gets to DCA and then backs down seems that there is a warm push at that time as well http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=700_rh_ht&cycle=12ℑ=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_045_700_rh_ht.gif that was not on any of the prior runs, so I don't know if that's just a blip, wobble, or trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 would early snowcover help us? the layer of warmth is 1000' feet, so probably not much, if at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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