Bob Chill Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 For the phone peeps. I think I like reds better than purples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 We almost bever get fgen bands this far south. Would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 ANy good frontogenesis sites? This is a classic for the NAM (hasn't updated for the 12z run yet): http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/ The best tool is GEMPAK of course but oh well. You could just take a 700mb chart for your article, draw a few lines and say "wow" ...that should get the point across. It is such a clear deformation zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Northern edge, like north of DC? Near the PA border perhaps? More like the HoCo jackpot of 09-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 really looks like 2/6/10 to me with that total precip map (sharp cutoff), tight low, and where it exists off the coast Minus the temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 ANy good frontogenesis sites? Well I'm just going by the H7 low track, but that site from Hart...the FSU banding site should be sweet in a couple of hours when it updates. Here is the 850-500 RH/VV and critical thicknesses for the 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dynasty Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 question and This is prolly the wrong place to ask, but how good is delaware looking for this... Im about in the middle of the statee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It's also a combo of a sick firehose moving from ESE-WNW too..not just critical banding. At least on the NAM..but the GFS had it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 ANy good frontogenesis sites? http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 precip knocking on door for dca: when it counts. Looks like the flip to snow is quick as soon as it gets going for real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Hi res nam, precip amounts out to hr60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Well I'm just going by the H7 low track, but that site from Hart...the FSU banding site should be sweet in a couple of hours when it updates. Here is the 850-500 RH/VV and critical thicknesses for the 12z NAM eta_42_vv.gif eta_48_vv.gif eta_51_vv.gif eta_54_vv.gif been 3 years+ since we've seen Coastalwx post these maps in the MA forum thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 But look at that nice kink in the H7 contours there. That's going to help maximize lift too. You can see how the wind vectors are more SE to the south of the feature and east-northeast to the north. That's your frontogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It's also a combo of a sick firehose moving from ESE-WNW too..not just critical banding. At least on the NAM..but the GFS had it too. Yeah, I was saying a few days ago what a beautiful spot this area can be when the wind direction is right. When you get strong easterly winds lifting up into the Apps like this, man it is a thing of beauty. Feb 03' was a perfect example and of course anything from 09-10 but this could possibly rank in that league. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yeah, I was saying a few days ago what a beautiful spot this area can be when the wind direction is right. When you get strong easterly winds lifting up into the Apps like this, man it is a thing of beauty. Feb 03' was a perfect example and of course anything from 09-10 but this could possibly rank in that league. Yeah gotta imagine the erly uplsope is going to be epic in the foothills and mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 WES: I am really rooting for northern Calvert -- if you get 4" or more my brother has a nice plowing contract for parking lots down there. One thing I like is that even with sun today we are just crossing over the 30-degree mark in central MD at 10:00. I would love to see it only get to 38 or 39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Still would like to hear the pros thoughts on the wind component. I want a Blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Still would like to hear the pros thoughts on the wind component. I want a Blizzard. I don't think we have a chance of verifying blizzard criteria (mostly due to the wind criteria within), but I could certainly forsee several hours of sustained near 20KT and gusts to 30-35KT. Higher down toward the shore obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Still would like to hear the pros thoughts on the wind component. I want a Blizzard. I'd say it's a distinct possibility. 10m winds are over >20kts on the 12z NAM. 950mb winds are almost 50kts. This is for DCA, so someone may very well in that general area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 precip maps for RGEM are not out yet, but look at the vertical motion maps at 48 hrs wow here too http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/775_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 when it counts. Looks like the flip to snow is quick as soon as it gets going for real [email protected] 35k right off the surface and very early? Wowzer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Think I'm going to stick with my first guess for now. Frontogenesis and uvv looks insane with the banding. For anyone outside of the banding, their totals might be on the very low end of my snow total ranges, or even fall an inch or two below. But with the banding, all bets are off. I know it seems bullish because of temps, but I'm thinking that the dynamics and rates will easily overcome that even during the day. Still don't think blizzard conditions will verify for many. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39568-the-march-6-storm-the-last-great-white-hope/page-41#entry2175666 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 From CWG: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 SREFs mean is 14" at IAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 12Z gfs wetter thru 33 hrs vs. 6z thru 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 12Z gfs wetter thru 33 hrs vs. 6z thru 39 Yeah, along the cold front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 h5 energy is stronger on 12z 33 when compared to 06z at 39. Basically same place, perhaps a few miles westward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Looks about identical at the surface except wetter through 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 54 looks decent with a nice blob of heavier precip just west of DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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