Ji Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 wow..richmond is dry and warm. Congrats DT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Where can I find better (more detailed) thickness charts? As a reminder, critical thickness values for snow: 1000-850: <1295 gpm 850-700: <1520 gpm 1000-500: <5400 gpm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I know these are missing essential layers but here's DCA: WED 00Z 06-MAR 1.5 -1.5 0.04 WED 06Z 06-MAR 0.9 -0.4 0.40 WED 12Z 06-MAR 1.8 -0.1 0.27 WED 18Z 06-MAR 2.6 -0.6 0.49 THU 00Z 07-MAR 1.6 -1.5 0.51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 its an outlier guys Yeah, but it's also been the front runner. Matches the trends of the other models of phasing a little quicker and keeping the low closer to the coast. If it stays that tucked in, there will be major mixing issues close to the coast I would imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burnbomb Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 have you already checked the soundings? I'm not convinced that all of the sudden rates and dynamics are overcome by warm air. GFS has trended warmer but NAM and Euro not as warm. Shortsighted to freak out by this IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Where can I find better (more detailed) thickness charts? As a reminder, critical thickness values for snow: 1000-850: <1295 gpm 850-700: <1520 gpm 1000-500: <5400 gpm I've heard the 1000-850 mb critical thickness at 1290 and 1300 dm, so 1295 is a good average. Obviously, the lower you are, the better. This time of year it's typically the 1000-850 mb thickness that does us in given the higher sun angle/warmer boundary layer temps. The 850-700 mb critical thickness is 1530-1540 I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 wow..richmond is dry and warm. Congrats DT? Can only hope DT is right about the gfs ... having NOVA/DC turn to a rainstorm while boston gets 3 feet would be an epic disastrous end to this winter and 3 years of snowhole hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 LOL Now Boston will steal our HECS. What is your elevation? Starting to like where we are 36 hours out a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 When was the last time it snowed for 24 hours.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yeah, but it's also been the front runner. Matches the trends of the other models of phasing a little quicker and keeping the low closer to the coast. If it stays that tucked in, there will be major mixing issues close to the coast I would imagine. I really think the NAM has been the front runner. Not a contest, but it may give a hint as to where to lean on temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Just checked the 850 low and 700 low tracks, and while the 850 low tracks south of DC, the 700 RH chart shows dry slot just east of DC so rates may lighten up in DC and maybe N/W suburbs to flip to rain temporarily. Should change back to snow, though, when it cranks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 maps still get dc into 4+ but not till after 0z you seem focused on maps....do you think their alogrithms have any value versus just looking at soundings and using some judgment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GFS_3_2013030418_F33_39.5000N_78.0000W.pngGFS_3_2013030418_F36_39.5000N_78.0000W.png Where is this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Gfs looks fishy. Convective problems? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I would take a second and breathe, and relax and not get worried over 2m temps on the GFS. The SREFs are in their wheelhouse, and they still show DCA with a good amount of snow. Mean is around 12" with no members under 5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Where is this? West Virginia if Google Maps is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Am I the only person left who doesnt use one of the 50 snow map products? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 you seem focused on maps....do you think their alogrithms have any value versus just looking at soundings and using some judgment Could not agree more, those maps always suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Am I the only person left who doesnt use one of the 50 snow map products? No, they are utterly useless in borderline cases. 12z sounding near DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 you seem focused on maps....do you think their alogrithms have any value versus just looking at soundings and using some judgmentI think they're ok to get trends etc and the ones I ref match soundings more or less plus they come out way sooner. There are some issues here treated too black and white. I've mostly mentioned them bc I have fast access and people are interested except when they aren't as good. You know this but this type of run is exactly why no one should be forecasting double digits into the city at this pt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 No, they are utterly useless in borderline cases. 12z sounding near DC GFS_3_2013030418_F42_39.0000N_77.0000W.png It is a good bet the morning will have serious issues...hopefully we flip to +SN by midday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 No, they are utterly useless in borderline cases. 12z sounding near DC GFS_3_2013030418_F42_39.0000N_77.0000W.png Ugh that is one cold rain at that time. If only we were 500' higher elevation.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 No, they are utterly useless in borderline cases. 12z sounding near DC GFS_3_2013030418_F42_39.0000N_77.0000W.png Would you mind posting BWI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Am I the only person left who doesnt use one of the 50 snow map products? apparently so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Would you mind posting BWI? Well, here's 15z at BWI since its worse than 12z (which looks like snow to me). Also still sucks at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 No, they are utterly useless in borderline cases. 12z sounding near DC GFS_3_2013030418_F42_39.0000N_77.0000W.png look at the surface winds....due east that's the problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 look...we can deal with a rain to snow scenario where we know we will get annihilated once everything crashes or we can get the old scenario where the ULL gets crushed southeast like a 7th grader into his locker...I'll take the former if those are the 2 choices Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 BWI...snow to rain to snow WED 06Z 06-MAR 1.1 -1.7 1008 89 99 0.19 547 541 WED 12Z 06-MAR 1.9 -1.3 1001 99 97 0.25 540 539 WED 18Z 06-MAR 3.0 -0.5 998 99 98 0.37 535 537 THU 00Z 07-MAR 1.9 -1.6 1002 98 98 0.53 537 536 THU 06Z 07-MAR 1.1 -1.5 1006 93 98 0.30 539 534 THU 12Z 07-MAR -0.7 -3.6 1010 90 93 0.03 542 535 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 look...we can deal with a rain to snow scenario where we know we will get annihilated once everything crashes or we can get the old scenario where the ULL gets crushed southeast like a 7th grader into his locker...I'll take the former if those are the 2 choices I would take an all (or mostly) snow scenario like many of the runs were indicating 24 hours ago, and even a few are still showing now. Always hate to waste several hours of heavy QPF to wait for the low to pull ever so slowly away and finally allow for more manufactured cold air to filter in. Although, to your point, that is what happened in Jan 2011, right? Still, with that kind of easterly component (strong negative U wind anomaly), in early March, how can we not have issues at the start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GFS_3_2013030418_F33_39.5000N_78.0000W.pngGFS_3_2013030418_F36_39.5000N_78.0000W.png Yeah. We are good Trix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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