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December General Banter


Gastonwxman

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statistically speaking when was the last "year without a winter" in the SE. figure of speech obviously but i remember a few shorts in early jan winters as a kid in late 70s, early 80s?

My first year teaching was 98-99 and we missed no days from school due to snow. I believe every year since we have had three or more snow days. My memory may be a little fuzzy though.

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definitely something to watch for our neck of the woods!

Sure like that look @ 276 Millz, at-least in terms of the surface. UL are a cluster, really unfavorable overall to get some winter-type going, no real Arctic high crashing down on the backside, 50/50 displaced to the sw and around 1000mb, but a Gulf low/southern slider nonetheless. Odds are if the threat materializes, it is going to trend warmer. GFS cold bias at this range is noted, and without the players just noted, another RN event. I mentioned in the pattern change thread that the 16-20th period has potential, not talking about the Lakes cutter around the 15th, after that. We need a solid low-mid 1030's HP in central TX/OK, and that crap in SE Canada in the 980 range, parked a couple hundred miles due north of ME to make it happen. Still very interested though, most of the major indices have inflection points around these dates, and some long range rumblings, of our first true GL this winter, and a southern slider to boot. popcorn.gif

OT/Banter/Annual Donation Drive: As much as I wish it would, the board does not operate for free. I know Christmas is just around the corner, funds are tight, and the economy is shaky. However, any folks out there with the means please consider a donation. Hell, if we can run brick for hotdog.gif of the year every other post in order to get the vote, I am calling the SE crew out on this one in order to help American reach its goal. Unsure how long the drive will go, maybe for another month or two. Wow has a thread up in the info sub about what the costs are, and projects underway. Minum donation is 10 bucks in order to get these cool gold coins under your name cool.png and remove all adds. If you can, please consider a donation. This community has meant a lot to us over the years, and it is only fair to allow it to continue to grow, and prosper. - Chris

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statistically speaking when was the last "year without a winter" in the SE. figure of speech obviously but i remember a few shorts in early jan winters as a kid in late 70s, early 80s?

05-06 in Central NC was pretty bad. No measurable snow from December1, 2005 to February 28, 2006:

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KRDU/2005/12/1/CustomHistory.html?dayend=28&monthend=2&yearend=2006&req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

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I remember Dec,back in the late 70's and early 80,s ,not having a lot of winter but Jan and especially Feb produced great snowstorms.

Off topic but why do I have a warn status on my signature and how do I get the removed?

we all do as long as there is no color in the line you are all set

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I wonder why that is ? December is colder than February on average for many locations. Why is snow more common in February than December ?

This is even more interesting when you consider that Feb. is ~10% shorter than Dec.

1) Despite the surface being slightly colder in Dec. than in Feb. as a whole for many SE locations, the upper atmosphere (say from ~850 mb and up) appears to be colder on average in Feb. than it is in Dec. due to a lag of when it is the coldest at upper levels. Feb. MAY even be slightly colder than Jan. at some upper levels. By the way, note that even March has had a good bit more snow than Dec. in recent decades at KATL. Also, March is very likely colder than Nov. at upper levels.

2) For KATL, itself, avg. rainfall is 3.82" in Dec. vs. a somewhat wetter 4.68" in Feb. despite only 28 days in Feb.

3) My gut tells me that low enough latitude Miller A lows are more common in Feb. than in Dec. The average stormtrack, overall, in Feb. may actually be lower in latitude vs. Dec. That likely ties into items #1 and 2, above. The vast majority of KATL major snows (based on records going back to the 1870's) have been associated with Miller A's that generally develop off of ~ S TX, nove mainly WNW, and then ultimately cross land somewhere between FL Panhandle/ far south GA and central FL.

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Sure like that look @ 276 Millz, at-least in terms of the surface. UL are a cluster, really unfavorable overall to get some winter-type going, no real Arctic high crashing down on the backside, 50/50 displaced to the sw and around 1000mb, but a Gulf low/southern slider nonetheless. Odds are if the threat materializes, it is going to trend warmer. GFS cold bias at this range is noted, and without the players just noted, another RN event. I mentioned in the pattern change thread that the 16-20th period has potential, not talking about the Lakes cutter around the 15th, after that. We need a solid low-mid 1030's HP in central TX/OK, and that crap in SE Canada in the 980 range, parked a couple hundred miles due north of ME to make it happen. Still very interested though, most of the major indices have inflection points around these dates, and some long range rumblings, of our first true GL this winter, and a southern slider to boot. popcorn.gif

OT/Banter/Annual Donation Drive: As much as I wish it would, the board does not operate for free. I know Christmas is just around the corner, funds are tight, and the economy is shaky. However, any folks out there with the means please consider a donation. Hell, if we can run brick for hotdog.gif of the year every other post in order to get the vote, I am calling the SE crew out on this one in order to help American reach its goal. Unsure how long the drive will go, maybe for another month or two. Wow has a thread up in the info sub about what the costs are, and projects underway. Minum donation is 10 bucks in order to get these cool gold coins under your name cool.png and remove all adds. If you can, please consider a donation. This community has meant a lot to us over the years, and it is only fair to allow it to continue to grow, and prosper. - Chris

Chris, You are right times are tough & it is almost X-Mas. That being said for myself personally I can't really put a price on the enjoyment & info this board supplies me with! I could only afford the min. but at less than $0.03 a day I feel like it's a great bargin. Many thanks to the admin., mods, & especially the SE crew! Don

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I wasn't paying attention and almost missed my first real "fantasy" GFS snow for MBY.

Interesting. And it's only 10 days away! OK, 9 days now. I'm not very optomistic, though. I just read Matthew East's blog for today and he seemed more optomistic about this winter and even the second half of December. I just don't see it happening. I think this winter will be a dud as far as snow goes around here.

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Interesting. And it's only 10 days away! OK, 9 days now. I'm not very optomistic, though. I just read Matthew East's blog for today and he seemed more optomistic about this winter and even the second half of December. I just don't see it happening. I think this winter will be a dud as far as nsow goes around here.

I think every winter is a dud as far as nsow goes.

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Any scientific reason why? Or just gut "weenie" feeling?

Interesting. And it's only 10 days away! OK, 9 days now. I'm not very optomistic, though. I just read Matthew East's blog for today and he seemed more optomistic about this winter and even the second half of December. I just don't see it happening. I think this winter will be a dud as far as nsow goes around here.

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Yup. Yesterday the models were hinting toward a little cooler; today they've gone the other way. With all this model fluctuation and inconsistency, something must be brewing upstream that the models are having difficulty sorting out an/or processing. I am not qualified to even guess if that may be, or if it is "good" or "bad" for the next few weeks as far as our deep SE "winter" goes.

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