Hurricane Isaias

[NorthHillsWx]

I’m going with an overnight/morning peak of 105 kts and a LF at 80 kts 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:

God this is an ugly looking storm.  Am I the only one?

This was never going to be a storm you make into a screensaver. It might make a brief run at Cat 3 overnight before the shear/dry air twin hammer hit tomorrow. Like others said it might resemble more a mid latitude nor’easter eaten away by dry air when it comes in. Still a significant surge/wind impact near landfall and big flood/tornado threat east of the center where training bands set up. 

[Coach McGuirk]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

This was never going to be a storm you make into a screensaver. It might make a brief run at Cat 3 overnight before the shear/dry air twin hammer hit tomorrow. Like others said it might resemble more a mid latitude nor’easter eaten away by dry air when it comes in. Still a significant surge/wind impact near landfall and big flood/tornado threat east of the center where training bands set up. 

Latest hurricane ever!

[BooneWX]

9 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:

God this is an ugly looking storm.  Am I the only one?

We’ve just seen a lot of eye candy the last few years in low sheer environments. This is a gulf cane of old. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Next recon will be telling. 

[NavarreDon]

Sometimes we get spoiled by the symmetry of perfect monster canes. I’m one who marvels at their beauty! I can tell you that as someone who sits in the crosshairs of this system, regardless of dry air & especially shear…I’m still quite fidgety tonight!


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[Coach McGuirk]

My cousin lives on Pine Island, Florida.  She was actually glad there was a strong El-Nino.  She knows the weather like me.  She is tired of the hurricanes. 

[BooneWX]

Not seeing a whole lot of chatter online regarding the inland wind threat. A broadening cyclone, fast motion and a tight gradient with the HP to the NE screams widespread 50-70 mph gusts that go on a lot longer than your typical system. Hope folks are prepared. 

[Coach McGuirk]

It's a quick hitter and dead. 

[jm1220]

8 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

We’ve just seen a lot of eye candy the last few years in low sheer environments. This is a gulf cane of old. 

Yep, it's your Opal 1995, Dennis 2005, Lili 2002 type. Although those peaked higher than this one will so this will likely be even weaker coming in. The more recent storms like Laura and Michael are the exception in the N Gulf.

[40/70 Benchmark]

55 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Idk…I’ve been a believer in GDM and the ensembles get bullish tonight on the peak. LF intensity is anyone’s guess but I’m probably with you on 90-95mph at landfall.

Love me some tropical sunsets. Be safe down there. I’m not chasing this one (wife’s birthday lol)

New one should be out there in a few hours. Perfect timing imo.

We'll see...should interesting to watch play out.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yep, it's your Opal 1995, Dennis 2005, Lili 2002 type. Although those peaked higher than this one will so this will likely be even weaker coming in. The more recent storms like Laura and Michael are the exception in the N Gulf.

Yea, I brought up Lily and Opal yesterday...Ivan was another.

[Nomz]

Really starting to look quite nice on IR

[Radtechwxman]

Going to pass over that warm eddy to with much improved structure now. Shear shouldn't be too bad overnight. I could see a cat 3 peak potentially. By afternoon tomorrow it will start feeling effects of much higher shear and eventually drier air towards coast. 

[NavarreDon]

I’m going with an overnight/morning peak of 105 kts and a LF at 80 kts 

Looking at the presentation on the WV right now and this seems very plausible.


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[GaWx]

Josh is in Pensacola as he chose Isaias over Simon but wishes there were two of him so they could chase both lol:
 

https://x.com/iCyclone/status/2108365382130045125
 

[NorthHillsWx]

Bet this is close to major already 

[Radtechwxman]

0z hrrr and nam absolutely shred this just before landfall. Halficane 

[Tyler Penland]

54 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Not seeing a whole lot of chatter online regarding the inland wind threat. A broadening cyclone, fast motion and a tight gradient with the HP to the NE screams widespread 50-70 mph gusts that go on a lot longer than your typical system. Hope folks are prepared. 

Tornado threat for AL/GA will be significant as well. Atlanta will be under the gun from both strong easterly winds and the tornado threat on Saturday. I wouldn't be surprised to see a moderate risk on Saturday for the area currently under a slight from the SPC if things hold serve.