NorthHillsWx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 minute ago, cptcatz said: I feel like asking NHC if those 100 mph winds are in the room with them right now... FL supported 80 kts but they noted tail Doppler found slightly higher winds around them enough to justify the increase. With organization once again looking better there’s nothing to argue why further increases wouldn’t be expected tonight as well 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 13 minutes ago, Interstate said: I find 100MPH hard to believe with the way it looks right now. They are reaching IMHO. No drop in pressure and FL winds the same? That tail radar measurement I bet was due to pulsing convection transitory spot wind, rather than true gradient. And the Dvorak does not support 85 kt winds. One observation does not take precedence over several observations that show the contrary. I just find if they can hedge higher for system threading land, they will. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago For scale, I attached zoomed out WV image,. The CDO/core of Isaias is very small. That makes it much more susceptible to shear and dry air. Also, easier RI. The 12z HAFS A/B shows sig intensification, but the rate of weakening it shows just in the last 9 hr up to landfall is quite remarkable. Just from a wild extreme swing one end to the other, this may be an exceptional event meteorologically. We get lots of big RIs just before landfall (Michael, Otis), but going the other way? I know no Atlantic situation quite like this, at least for an impending landfall. Sure, many HUs elsewhere has got torn apart in short order, but it is so much different when close to landfall and the system is quite strong within say 12-15 hr of landfall. A lot more eyes are on it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Very impressive ring of convection developing around the…. Eye…. Yes we have a legit eye now! Appears to be making another leap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Dewpoints in the upper 50s over SE TX which might as well be the Egyptian desert. If it's ramping up it has to now or very soon-because that's gonna hurt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 46 minutes ago, vortex95 said: They are reaching IMHO. No drop in pressure and FL winds the same? That tail radar measurement I bet was due to pulsing convection transitory spot wind, rather than true gradient. And the Dvorak does not support 85 kt winds. One observation does not take precedence over several observations that show the contrary. I just find if they can hedge higher for system threading land, they will. Yes, I think most of the winds on the latest recon were just about 70kt, if a bit more, and then surface winds should be lower than flight level, by 10 kt. I think the continued pressure of about 978mb supports relatively the same as this morning's recon, which may have had a bit of 75-80kt flight level. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 4 minutes ago, Chinook said: Yes, I think most of the winds on the latest recon were just about 70kt, if a bit more, and then surface winds should be lower than flight level, by 10 kt. I think the continued pressure of about 978mb supports relatively the same as this morning's recon, which may have had a bit of 75-80kt flight level. FL wind reduction to sfc 700 - 90% 850 - 80% 925 - 75% 300 m - 80% 150 m mean layer - 85% However, Sfc-700 mb wind ratios vary from TC to TC and can range from ~70% to >100%. But departures from standard adjustment cannot be determined from just a few sondes b/c of convective vigor, eye wall structure/cycle, RMW, and/or low-level stability/cooler waters. In order for 700 winds to be 100% at the sfc, I think you need an exceptional eye wall ring and the hurricane in RI mode, like Andrew was at landfall. Also, CGs in the eye wall indicating better updraft/downdraft couplets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Another HU warm eddy RI? Opal in Oct 1995. 80 > 130 kt in 22 hr 130 > 100 kt in 12 hr (100 at landfall). 19951003, 1200, , HU, 22.8N, 91.6W, 80, 968, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999 19951003, 1800, , HU, 23.5N, 91.0W, 85, 965, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999 19951004, 0000, , HU, 24.5N, 90.1W, 100, 953, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999 19951004, 0600, , HU, 25.9N, 89.4W, 110, 935, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999 19951004, 1000, I, HU, 26.6N, 88.8W, 130, 916, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999 19951004, 1200, , HU, 27.3N, 88.5W, 130, 919, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999 19951004, 1800, , HU, 29.0N, 87.7W, 110, 938, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999 19951004, 2200, L, HU, 30.3N, 87.1W, 100, 942, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, 50 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 hour ago, TriPol said: As I said, it'll hit Cat 3 before landfall. Doubt it...my call from yesterday still looks good...110mph peak overnight before a Destin, FL LF early Sat at 90mph. Famous last words....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Ugliest looking cat 2 ever. El-Nino is a true hurricane killer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago It might look like a Nor'easter by landfall. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 9 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said: It might look like a Nor'easter by landfall. I mean the noreaster last week looked far better than this does 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Amazing outflow sunset in the W FL Panhandle tonight!. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Anyone know what's up with the recon plane? Going in weird directions and altitude is all over the place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottie16 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Starting to show its new eye wall.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 31 minutes ago, cptcatz said: Anyone know what's up with the recon plane? Going in weird directions and altitude is all over the place Looks like it had to abort the mission although it's weird it didn't fly back to where it took off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Getting that look now with concentric towers going up on either side of the eye. Shame the Hurricane Hunters had to pull out, hopefully a new mission goes out soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Far too much wind shear and dry air. This thing is going to look like garbage at landfall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottie16 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Most structure it’s had.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 hour ago, cptcatz said: I mean the noreaster last week looked far better than this does 12 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Getting that look now with concentric towers going up on either side of the eye. Shame the Hurricane Hunters had to pull out, hopefully a new mission goes out soon. 5 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said: Far too much wind shear and dry air. This thing is going to look like garbage at landfall. 2 minutes ago, Scottie16 said: Most structure it’s had. . Are we all looking at the same storm? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago so many times in the last 5 years a storm in the gulf that was predicted to weaken due to dry air or wind shear has gotten stronger right at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Looks like it has taken it Northernly turn... You can see how it will be ripped apart with the westerly shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 35 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Looks like it had to abort the mission although it's weird it didn't fly back to where it took off They were scheduled to relocate to Kelly Air Base in San Antonio today and I'm assuming that's where they went too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Doubt it...my call from yesterday still looks good...110mph peak overnight before a Destin, FL LF early Sat at 90mph. Famous last words....lol Idk…I’ve been a believer in GDM and the ensembles get bullish tonight on the peak. LF intensity is anyone’s guess but I’m probably with you on 90-95mph at landfall. 1 hour ago, NavarreDon said: Amazing outflow sunset in the W FL Panhandle tonight! . Love me some tropical sunsets. Be safe down there. I’m not chasing this one (wife’s birthday lol) 33 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Getting that look now with concentric towers going up on either side of the eye. Shame the Hurricane Hunters had to pull out, hopefully a new mission goes out soon. New one should be out there in a few hours. Perfect timing imo. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Easily the best satellite presentation of the system’s life right now. How spicy does it want to get overnight? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said: Easily the best satellite presentation of the system’s life right now. How spicy does it want to get overnight? With that deep ring of convection… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted 58 minutes ago Share Posted 58 minutes ago Easily the best satellite presentation of the system’s life right now. How spicy does it want to get overnight? Totally agree, the window is shrinking but there is still time for some more fuel. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted 51 minutes ago Share Posted 51 minutes ago God this is an ugly looking storm. Am I the only one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 50 minutes ago Share Posted 50 minutes ago 8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: With that deep ring of convection… 5 minutes ago, NavarreDon said: Totally agree, the window is shrinking but there is still time for some more fuel. . Regional hurricane models had a large uptick at 18z for overnight intensity. Really wouldn’t be shocked at all to see a major overnight. Also, this is never going to be a photographic hurricane, too much shear for that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted 47 minutes ago Share Posted 47 minutes ago In this corner we have the ever-strengthening superrrr niñooo! In the other we have the shear challenger--Isaaaaías!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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