Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[vortex95]

4 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

violent shear 

And moist adiabatic lapse rates to 550 mb...EEECH!! 

[Torch Tiger]

44 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

And moist adiabatic lapse rates to 550 mb...EEECH!! 

It's sne..

[ineedsnow]

I'll be on atlantic city tuesday through Friday.. maybe ill get lucky.. 

[kdxken]

4 hours ago, vortex95 said:

So I did a little easy "experiment."  Using CoCoRaHS sites, I got Y-T-D totals for the 3 sites closest to Logan.  Chelsea, Somerville, and Nahant.

Chelsea - 15.26"
Somerville - 12.72"
Nahant - 12.55"

And BOS? 10.79"

Again, taking climate information at face value has its issues.  The excuse here?  "Oh, we have to use it b/c it is official!"  So?  Just b/c it is official does not mean it is correct/right.  That's the appeal to authority logical fallacy.  Equipment/standards/practices are not perfect, so calling such out is not wrong.

 

This ^. 

[vortex95]

SPC DY6 has SVR outlooked OH Valley-DCA-NYC?  Time for WxWiz to starting getting ready.  He been waiting for something like this for so long!  And CoastalWx can stop saying "SNE SUCKS for convection!" LOL.

From pattern recognition, I am very impressed, and it takes a *lot* to impress me for svr these days. An unusually strong sfc low for mid June is fcst (below 990 mb) to track across southern Ontario and Quebec. 00z GFS and ECMWF same idea on 6/18  for wind fields -- GFS a bit stronger than the ECMWF, but does not matter, they are still through the roof for this time of year.  GFS 120 kt 250, 95 kt 500, 75 kt 700, 65 kt 850 and 925 in New England this time of year w/ available CAPE this time of year?  Ho-ly (   )!!!  Actually, w/ these kind of wind fields, you don't need more than say 2000-2500 CAPE for sigtor.

Anywhere from the OH Valley-Mid Atlantic-Northeast may be in for a sig tor event!   I don't have to quote the big tor outbreak for our region, but just mention July 10, 1989, and WxWiz will faint! 

FYI, winds of 65 kt at 850 existed for the ORH 1953 event.  For the July 10. 1989 event, the sfc low that tracked across NNE was "only" 998 mb.

Not overstating things here for potential at all.  But of course, it's all in the details.  *But* again, SPC outlooking SVR this part of the country on DY6 this time of year?  That says something!  You don't get that w/o a synoptically-evident set up.

[dendrite]

62.0/56

Refreshing morning.

[Baroclinic Zone]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

62.0/56

Refreshing morning.

Lol 71/61 here.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Closest Cocorahs station to my location showing on 2.15” of rain since May 1st. Arid.

[Hoth]

1 hour ago, vortex95 said:

SPC DY6 has SVR outlooked OH Valley-DCA-NYC?  Time for WxWiz to starting getting ready.  He been waiting for something like this for so long!  And CoastalWx can stop saying "SNE SUCKS for convection!" LOL.

From pattern recognition, I am very impressed, and it takes a *lot* to impress me for svr these days. An unusually strong sfc low for mid June is fcst (below 990 mb) to track across southern Ontario and Quebec. 00z GFS and ECMWF same idea on 6/18  for wind fields -- GFS a bit stronger than the ECMWF, but does not matter, they are still through the roof for this time of year.  GFS 120 kt 250, 95 kt 500, 75 kt 700, 65 kt 850 and 925 in New England this time of year w/ available CAPE this time of year?  Ho-ly (   )!!!  Actually, w/ these kind of wind fields, you don't need more than say 2000-2500 CAPE for sigtor.

Anywhere from the OH Valley-Mid Atlantic-Northeast may be in for a sig tor event!   I don't have to quote the big tor outbreak for our region, but just mention July 10, 1989, and WxWiz will faint! 

FYI, winds of 65 kt at 850 existed for the ORH 1953 event.  For the July 10. 1989 event, the sfc low that tracked across NNE was "only" 998 mb.

Not overstating things here for potential at all.  But of course, it's all in the details.  *But* again, SPC outlooking SVR this part of the country on DY6 this time of year?  That says something!  You don't get that w/o a synoptically-evident set up.

The Hamden F4 is my earliest memory. We’re due!