June 2026

[donsutherland1]

Fair and pleasantly warm conditions will prevail during the weekend. Highs will reach the lower 80s with some middle 80s across the region.

Monday and Tuesday will be cooler days. Rain is likely on Monday. The potential exists for a general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall.

No excessive heat appears likely through at least June 25th. A warming trend could commence during or after the next weekend.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.95°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer.

The SOI was +4.15 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.021 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 82% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.8 (1.8° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.4° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.