Monty Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 30 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: GFS is very wet ? IMO when this system arrives it will not be one solid area of precip - it will be a more showery system with T-storms possible only areas that will see over 1 inch will be the few that get the t-storms The system will not arrive till afternoon and by then daytime heating will support T-storms You can already smell the skunk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 42 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: GFS is very wet ? IMO when this system arrives it will not be one solid area of precip - it will be a more showery system with T-storms possible only areas that will see over 1 inch will be the few that get the t-storms The system will not arrive till afternoon and by then daytime heating will support T-storms That's the 0z. 6Z wetter stripe of 2-3 inches from PHL to CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 1 hour ago, Monty said: You can already smell the skunk Yep-skunk zone. T-storms area to the south and stratiform heavy rain along I-90. We need it, hope I’m wrong. But this is a summer SWFE that always tries to nudge north. Maybe the T-storms zone can nudge N too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 Beautiful Father’s Day. Enjoy all 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: That's the 0z. 6Z wetter stripe of 2-3 inches from PHL to CT 12z similar 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 43 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: 12z similar Certainly would be nice if GFS is right about heavy rain across our area, but who knows. 12z HRRR has heavy rain going over our area, but obviously the day before it's very difficult for the models to predict which areas will get 1 to 2 inches and which areas only a quarter inch. Hopefully we'll get lucky with the heavy downpours. I'm desperate for heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 To water the grass or not to water the grass is this rain coming or what Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 1 hour ago, psv88 said: Beautiful Father’s Day. Enjoy all Agree My first one as a dad. 21 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 28 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Certainly would be nice if GFS is right about heavy rain across our area, but who knows. 12z HRRR has heavy rain going over our area, but obviously the day before it's very difficult for the models to predict which areas will get 1 to 2 inches and which areas only a quarter inch. Hopefully we'll get lucky with the heavy downpours. I'm desperate for heavy rain. Yeah lawn is already turning brown and stopped growing. Unheard of for June 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Agree My first one as a dad. Mom and Dad, nice recipe! ….well done…. Happy Father’s Day. As always ….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 21 Author Share Posted June 21 and here is the 12Z NAM models are all over the place typical of a system where T-storms will be the main heavy rain maker and its impossible to determine where they will go - there will be a wide range of totals region wide 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 12Z euro shaft zone just south of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picard Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 It's probably going to be the typical northern track of the bulk of the precip, while we wait to see what develops to the south of the main area. And if it's too cloudy tomorrow, will that stunt development? Probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 Nam is 1 to 3" all in less than 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 Tomorrow and Tuesday will be cooler days. Rain is likely on tomorrow into tomorrow night. Some locations could experience a thunderstorm. The potential exists for a general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall. No excessive heat appears likely through at least June 25th. A warming trend could commence during or after the next weekend. Some of the guidance suggests that hot weather could return to conclude June. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.95°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -5.98 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.096 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 87% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.9 (1.9° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 Depending on instability there's a definite tornado threat here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 What time frame we looking at the rain starting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: Agree My first one as a dad. Plant corn, get corn. Congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcwx Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 what is this streak across colorado?https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Colorado-comp_radar-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcwx Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 colorado.mp4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 21 Author Share Posted June 21 3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Nam is 1 to 3" all in less than 6 hours compare the 12Z NAM to the 18Z NAM and you will see it has no idea how much and where the rainfall will occur IMO using models this far out will not verify. It will be all about now casting tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picard Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 They keep showing a split with a screw zone in the middle. It's a riot to see 2.5" and 0.2" within 50 miles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 22 Author Share Posted June 22 1 minute ago, Picard said: They keep showing a split with a screw zone in the middle. It's a riot to see 2.5" and 0.2" within 50 miles. and as the 12Z and 18Z NAM shows the difference in different areas - no consistency - thats why Don's forecast of a 1/2 inch to 1 1/2 inches without saying where is the best way to go....... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted June 22 Share Posted June 22 Picked up a whopping .01” from the showers that just rolled through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 22 Share Posted June 22 Today's Highs: ACY: 88 BLM: 87 New Brnswck: 87 EWR: 86 PHL: 86 LGA: 85 TEB: 84 TTN: 84 ISP: 82 JFK: 82 NYC: 82 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 22 Share Posted June 22 Astro spring here was the 2nd warmest in 45 years behind only 2010, also the 2nd driest with 6.75" of precip, only 1995 was drier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 22 Share Posted June 22 HRRR and NAM3km going nuts tonight, saying some spots could get 4 to 5 inches. Good to see the models beefing it up tonight. Hopefully this won't disappoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 22 Share Posted June 22 84 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 22 Author Share Posted June 22 1 hour ago, winterwx21 said: HRRR and NAM3km going nuts tonight, saying some spots could get 4 to 5 inches. Good to see the models beefing it up tonight. Hopefully this won't disappoint. Total disagreement amongst the 2 mentioned models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 22 Share Posted June 22 7 hours ago, NEG NAO said: Total disagreement amongst the 2 mentioned models If you're not in the stratiform rain zone which our subforum won't, we're relying on convection to produce any rain we get. If that misses or fails to materialize we get skunked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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