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24 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Good! We needed to dry out. It was becoming like Florida.

 

Not you, but to other posters… we are not in a drought! If you think this is a drought, you don’t even know what a drought is.

 

Being abnormally dry is worlds away from drought conditions.

anybody else remember John Paul, arriving at Newark and it raining and he showed the sprinkle sign from above? That was a drought. The early 2000s has another drought.

 

anybody on here trying to make the past year sound like a drought, it’s just being sensationalist and trying to make something bigger than it is. 

 

 

 

Maybe you should go look at the drought monitor map. Most of our area is now in a severe drought. Obviously you're not a farmer or gardener so you don't understand how rough these conditions are. 

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19 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It’s actually pretty incredible how a storm this strong 985mb is able to pass this area precipitation free.


.

Yeah, a near to record Great Lakes cutter for this time of year. 

 

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Wouldn't this warrant an advisory?

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Southwesterly winds gusts of 35 to 45 mph this afternoon into early evening. Isolated gusts to 50 mph possible. A few tree limbs could be blown down and poorly secured objects damaged.

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1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Wouldn't this warrant an advisory?

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Southwesterly winds gusts of 35 to 45 mph this afternoon into early evening. Isolated gusts to 50 mph possible. A few tree limbs could be blown down and poorly secured objects damaged.

My yard is a damn disaster again and this time is not from a thunderstorm passing through. 

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Parts of the region will see a shower or thundershower tonight. Not all areas will see rain. The wind will gradually diminish overnight.

Tomorrow through the weekend will feature high temperatures mainly in the lower 80s.

Monday and Tuesday will be cooler days. Rain is likely on Monday. The potential exists for a general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall.

No excessive heat appears likely through at least June 25th.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.95°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer.

The SOI was +3.87 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.261 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.8 (1.8° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.4° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

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Warm spots like Newark are currently in 2nd place for most 90° days by the summer solstice.

But the area will see fewer 90° days in late June with the pattern closer to seasonable. So Newark should fall further back closer to 4th or 5th place by June 30th.
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Most 90° days by June 21st
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 1991-06-21 14 0
2 2026-06-21 13 3
3 2021-06-21 12 0
- 1987-06-21 12 0
4 1986-06-21 11 0
5 1988-06-21 10 0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Most 90° days by June 30th
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 1991-06-30 18 0
2 2021-06-30 16 0
- 2010-06-30 16 0
3 1987-06-30 15 0
4 1986-06-30 14 0
5 2026-06-30 13 12
- 1965-06-30 13 0
- 1943-06-30 13 0
6 2024-06-30 12 0
- 1994-06-30 12 0
- 1993-06-30 12 0
- 1880-06-30 12 0


 

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IMG_6692.thumb.webp.ded159b0780614c6b592ad358840f9a7.webp

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73 / 51 clouds with the rain staying south.  Should clear out by the 1pm.  Nice stretch through Sunday near normal low - mid, perhaps upper 80s ion Sunday in the warm spots.  Next shot at rain / storm Mon >0.5 - 1.00 or more widespread.  Trough into the northeast 6/21 - 6/27.  Also some rain chances next Thu/Fri but more scattered and less widespread.  Them remain ridge pushes east to close the month and overall warmer to hot develops with ridging into the east and perhaps along the coast by the close and beyond into next month.


GOES19-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

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45 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Models with 1 to 1.5" Monday. Fingers crossed 

the higher end amounts will be in areas that get the thunderstorms predicted - going to be a wide range of totals region wide as of now.........

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29 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:


Par for the course during convention season. We really need this one to work out. That northward trend is not our friend


.

Some of the models are starting to favor I-90. This is a SWFE type system but in June and we all know how those normally turn out. 

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Records:

Highs:

EWR: 103 (1994)
NYC: 98 (1994)
LGA: 97 (1994)
JFK: 98 (1994)


Lows:

EWR: 53 (1954)
NYC: 49 (1914)
LGA: 56 (2022)
JFK: 54 (1965)

 

Historical:

 

1794: A violent tornado commenced west of the Hudson River in New York. The tornado traveled through Poughkeepsie then crossed the border into Connecticut where it went through the towns of New Milford, Waterbury, North Haven, and Branford. It then continued into Long Island Sound. The tornado did extensive damage, and the funnel was reported by one observer to look like the "aurora borealis."

1835 - A tornado tore through the center of New Brunswick NJ killing five persons and scattering debris as far as Manhattan Island. The tornado provided the first opportunity for scientists to study firsthand the track of such a storm. (David Ludlum)

 

1934: A hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico came ashore in Louisiana, then moved northeast, passing over northern Delaware, Philadelphia, PA and central New Jersey as an extratropical storm, with sustained winds of 45 mph. Philadelphia received 1.70 inches of rainfall on the 18th into this date, and New York City had 1.93 inches on this date, a daily record. As the storm passed over Philadelphia, the pressure dropped to 29.40 inches of mercury.  (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1938 - A cloudburst near Custer Creek, MT, (near Miles City) caused a train wreck killing forty-eight persons. An estimated four to seven inches of rain deluged the head of the creek that evening, and water flowing through the creek weakened the bridge. As a result, a locomotive and seven passenger cars plunged into the swollen creek. One car, a tourist sleeper, was completely submerged. (David Ludlum)

 


1944: Hailstorm caused great destruction to fruit crop in Winchester, Virginia.

1964: A squall line producing large hail swept through central Illinois, followed by two more consecutive lines passing shortly after dawn. The resulting hailstorms caused damage in excess of $9 million dollars, as hailstones the size of grapefruits brought havoc to trees, utility lines, crops and buildings. The thunderstorms also produced as much as 5 inches of rain over an 8-hour period. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1965: The Arkansas River crested at 15.68 feet at Dodge City, KS. Heavy rains in Eastern Colorado combined with three broken dams started the torrent of water which flowed through Colorado and Kansas. The river rose seven feet in 15 minutes between 9 AM and 9:15 AM. The deepest part of south Dodge was about 7 feet under water. The deep water created other problems, when gas regulators were covered, pressure built up in the gas lines and Dodge City was rocked by explosions. Total urban losses in Dodge City and Wilroads Gardens were estimated at nearly $3.8 million dollars, including damages to 615 residences and 155 businesses. 24 Kansas counties were declared flood disasters. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1972 - Hurricane Agnes moved onshore near Cape San Blas FL with wind gusts to 80 mph, and exited Maine on the 26th. There were 117 deaths, mainly due to flooding from North Carolina to New York State, and total damage was estimated at more than three billion dollars. Up to 19 inches of rain deluged western Schuylkill County PA. The rains of Hurricane Agnes resulted in one of the greatest natural disasters in U.S. history. Agnes caused more damage than all other tropical cyclones in the previous six years combined (which included Celia and Camille). (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - It was a warm June day, with plenty of thunderstorms east of the Rockies. Lightning knocked out power at Throckmorton, TX, and ignited an oil tank battery. A woman in Knox City TX was struck by lightning while in her car, and a man was struck by lightning near his home in Manatee County FL. Strong thunderstorm winds overturned several outhouses near Bixby OK, but no injuries were reported. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Temperatures soared above 100 degrees in the central U.S. for Father's Day. Fifteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date. Severe thunderstorms in Minnesota and Wisconsin produced softball size hail near River Falls WI, and wind gusts to 80 mph at Menomonie WI. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Fourteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date as searing heat spread from the southwestern deserts into the High Plains Region. Record highs included 98 degrees at Billings, MT, 107 degrees at Valentine, NE, and 112 degrees at Tucson, AZ. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - What would eventually be known as the "Inland Hurricane" stuck south central Kansas. This storm system produced a swath of 65 to 120 mph winds across six counties and caused $80 million dollars in damage. The peak recorded wind gust was 116 mph, which reaches low-end category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind intensity scale. On the enhanced Fujita Scale the 116mph winds would be rated an EF2. The storm knocked out power to all the Wichita TV stations, and they were off the air for hours. All but one of the Wichita Radio Stations, including the Wichita NOAA Weather Radio Station KEC-59, was knocked off the air. (National Weather Service Wichita)



1992: Two batches of severe thunderstorms, occurring within six hours of each other, dumped hailstones up to 4.5 inches in diameter (softball size) across Sedgwick and surrounding counties in south central Kansas. Over 10,000 homes were damaged. The hail left wheat fields near total losses. The hail also left most wheat fields in its path a near total loss with about 375,000 acres damaged in several counties. Estimated property damage totaled $500 million dollars with crop damage at $100 million dollars. The thunderstorm episode ranks as one for the worst ever to hit the state of Kansas. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1994: Lightning struck and killed two golfers, and injured another, at the Lincoln Golf Course in northeastern Oklahoma City. These golfers were seeking shelter from a thunderstorm under trees when they were struck by lightning. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1996: Severe thunderstorm winds damaged a large hanger door and turned a Boeing 727 aircraft 180 degrees at Orlando International Airport in Florida. Lightning injured three landscape workers near the University of Central Florida. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1996: A 22 year-old man was reported in critical condition after being struck by lightning while visiting the Nations Capital during the early evening of the 19th. (Ref. Scott Summer of the DC Weather Examiner)

2002: Parts of New Jersey that had barely gotten three inches of snow during the winter were buried in up to 8 inches of hail. People had to break out their snow shovels for the first time of the year. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

2006 - Up to 11 inches of rain fell in the Houston, Texas area, causing widespread flash flooding. The Houston Fire Department rescued more than 500 people from flood waters, but no serious injuries or fatalities were reported

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