Stormlover74 Posted June 18 Share Posted June 18 Wouldn't this warrant an advisory? This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Southwesterly winds gusts of 35 to 45 mph this afternoon into early evening. Isolated gusts to 50 mph possible. A few tree limbs could be blown down and poorly secured objects damaged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted June 18 Share Posted June 18 You would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 18 Share Posted June 18 how often has ewr gusted to 50 mph at or above 90f 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted June 18 Share Posted June 18 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Wouldn't this warrant an advisory? This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Southwesterly winds gusts of 35 to 45 mph this afternoon into early evening. Isolated gusts to 50 mph possible. A few tree limbs could be blown down and poorly secured objects damaged. My yard is a damn disaster again and this time is not from a thunderstorm passing through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 18 Share Posted June 18 Temp up to 88.5. High of the day, doesn’t feel it due to the strong wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 18 Share Posted June 18 Parts of the region will see a shower or thundershower tonight. Not all areas will see rain. The wind will gradually diminish overnight. Tomorrow through the weekend will feature high temperatures mainly in the lower 80s. Monday and Tuesday will be cooler days. Rain is likely on Monday. The potential exists for a general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall. No excessive heat appears likely through at least June 25th. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.95°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was +3.87 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.261 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.8 (1.8° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.4° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 18 Share Posted June 18 11th 90 of season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted June 18 Share Posted June 18 Windy but where is the rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 Today's Highs: ACY: 95 BLM: 92 EWR: 92 PHL: 92 TEB: 91 New Brnswck: 90 LGA: 90 JFK: 89 TTN: 89 ISP: 87 NYC: 86 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 I was up in the Adirondacks yesterday and got pummeled. Tornado watches, extremely heavy rain, and crazy wind for hours. That was fun... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 Warm spots like Newark are currently in 2nd place for most 90° days by the summer solstice. But the area will see fewer 90° days in late June with the pattern closer to seasonable. So Newark should fall further back closer to 4th or 5th place by June 30th. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Most 90° days by June 21stClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1991-06-21 14 0 2 2026-06-21 13 3 3 2021-06-21 12 0 - 1987-06-21 12 0 4 1986-06-21 11 0 5 1988-06-21 10 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Most 90° days by June 30thClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1991-06-30 18 0 2 2021-06-30 16 0 - 2010-06-30 16 0 3 1987-06-30 15 0 4 1986-06-30 14 0 5 2026-06-30 13 12 - 1965-06-30 13 0 - 1943-06-30 13 0 6 2024-06-30 12 0 - 1994-06-30 12 0 - 1993-06-30 12 0 - 1880-06-30 12 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 Models with 1 to 1.5" Monday. Fingers crossed 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 73 / 51 clouds with the rain staying south. Should clear out by the 1pm. Nice stretch through Sunday near normal low - mid, perhaps upper 80s ion Sunday in the warm spots. Next shot at rain / storm Mon >0.5 - 1.00 or more widespread. Trough into the northeast 6/21 - 6/27. Also some rain chances next Thu/Fri but more scattered and less widespread. Them remain ridge pushes east to close the month and overall warmer to hot develops with ridging into the east and perhaps along the coast by the close and beyond into next month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 19 Author Share Posted June 19 45 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Models with 1 to 1.5" Monday. Fingers crossed the higher end amounts will be in areas that get the thunderstorms predicted - going to be a wide range of totals region wide as of now......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 the higher end amounts will be in areas that get the thunderstorms predicted - going to be a wide range of totals region wide as of now.........Par for the course during convention season. We really need this one to work out. That northward trend is not our friend . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 29 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Par for the course during convention season. We really need this one to work out. That northward trend is not our friend . Some of the models are starting to favor I-90. This is a SWFE type system but in June and we all know how those normally turn out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 Countdown to less sunlight begins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 On 6/18/2026 at 9:00 AM, Stormlover74 said: We're still in a slight risk The risk turned out to be a very windy sunny warm day. This was nothing for days storm wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 Records: Highs: EWR: 103 (1994) NYC: 98 (1994) LGA: 97 (1994) JFK: 98 (1994) Lows: EWR: 53 (1954) NYC: 49 (1914) LGA: 56 (2022) JFK: 54 (1965) Historical: 1794: A violent tornado commenced west of the Hudson River in New York. The tornado traveled through Poughkeepsie then crossed the border into Connecticut where it went through the towns of New Milford, Waterbury, North Haven, and Branford. It then continued into Long Island Sound. The tornado did extensive damage, and the funnel was reported by one observer to look like the "aurora borealis." 1835 - A tornado tore through the center of New Brunswick NJ killing five persons and scattering debris as far as Manhattan Island. The tornado provided the first opportunity for scientists to study firsthand the track of such a storm. (David Ludlum) 1934: A hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico came ashore in Louisiana, then moved northeast, passing over northern Delaware, Philadelphia, PA and central New Jersey as an extratropical storm, with sustained winds of 45 mph. Philadelphia received 1.70 inches of rainfall on the 18th into this date, and New York City had 1.93 inches on this date, a daily record. As the storm passed over Philadelphia, the pressure dropped to 29.40 inches of mercury. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1938 - A cloudburst near Custer Creek, MT, (near Miles City) caused a train wreck killing forty-eight persons. An estimated four to seven inches of rain deluged the head of the creek that evening, and water flowing through the creek weakened the bridge. As a result, a locomotive and seven passenger cars plunged into the swollen creek. One car, a tourist sleeper, was completely submerged. (David Ludlum) 1944: Hailstorm caused great destruction to fruit crop in Winchester, Virginia. 1964: A squall line producing large hail swept through central Illinois, followed by two more consecutive lines passing shortly after dawn. The resulting hailstorms caused damage in excess of $9 million dollars, as hailstones the size of grapefruits brought havoc to trees, utility lines, crops and buildings. The thunderstorms also produced as much as 5 inches of rain over an 8-hour period. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1965: The Arkansas River crested at 15.68 feet at Dodge City, KS. Heavy rains in Eastern Colorado combined with three broken dams started the torrent of water which flowed through Colorado and Kansas. The river rose seven feet in 15 minutes between 9 AM and 9:15 AM. The deepest part of south Dodge was about 7 feet under water. The deep water created other problems, when gas regulators were covered, pressure built up in the gas lines and Dodge City was rocked by explosions. Total urban losses in Dodge City and Wilroads Gardens were estimated at nearly $3.8 million dollars, including damages to 615 residences and 155 businesses. 24 Kansas counties were declared flood disasters. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1972 - Hurricane Agnes moved onshore near Cape San Blas FL with wind gusts to 80 mph, and exited Maine on the 26th. There were 117 deaths, mainly due to flooding from North Carolina to New York State, and total damage was estimated at more than three billion dollars. Up to 19 inches of rain deluged western Schuylkill County PA. The rains of Hurricane Agnes resulted in one of the greatest natural disasters in U.S. history. Agnes caused more damage than all other tropical cyclones in the previous six years combined (which included Celia and Camille). (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1987 - It was a warm June day, with plenty of thunderstorms east of the Rockies. Lightning knocked out power at Throckmorton, TX, and ignited an oil tank battery. A woman in Knox City TX was struck by lightning while in her car, and a man was struck by lightning near his home in Manatee County FL. Strong thunderstorm winds overturned several outhouses near Bixby OK, but no injuries were reported. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Temperatures soared above 100 degrees in the central U.S. for Father's Day. Fifteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date. Severe thunderstorms in Minnesota and Wisconsin produced softball size hail near River Falls WI, and wind gusts to 80 mph at Menomonie WI. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Fourteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date as searing heat spread from the southwestern deserts into the High Plains Region. Record highs included 98 degrees at Billings, MT, 107 degrees at Valentine, NE, and 112 degrees at Tucson, AZ. (The National Weather Summary) 1990 - What would eventually be known as the "Inland Hurricane" stuck south central Kansas. This storm system produced a swath of 65 to 120 mph winds across six counties and caused $80 million dollars in damage. The peak recorded wind gust was 116 mph, which reaches low-end category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind intensity scale. On the enhanced Fujita Scale the 116mph winds would be rated an EF2. The storm knocked out power to all the Wichita TV stations, and they were off the air for hours. All but one of the Wichita Radio Stations, including the Wichita NOAA Weather Radio Station KEC-59, was knocked off the air. (National Weather Service Wichita) 1992: Two batches of severe thunderstorms, occurring within six hours of each other, dumped hailstones up to 4.5 inches in diameter (softball size) across Sedgwick and surrounding counties in south central Kansas. Over 10,000 homes were damaged. The hail left wheat fields near total losses. The hail also left most wheat fields in its path a near total loss with about 375,000 acres damaged in several counties. Estimated property damage totaled $500 million dollars with crop damage at $100 million dollars. The thunderstorm episode ranks as one for the worst ever to hit the state of Kansas. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1994: Lightning struck and killed two golfers, and injured another, at the Lincoln Golf Course in northeastern Oklahoma City. These golfers were seeking shelter from a thunderstorm under trees when they were struck by lightning. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1996: Severe thunderstorm winds damaged a large hanger door and turned a Boeing 727 aircraft 180 degrees at Orlando International Airport in Florida. Lightning injured three landscape workers near the University of Central Florida. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1996: A 22 year-old man was reported in critical condition after being struck by lightning while visiting the Nations Capital during the early evening of the 19th. (Ref. Scott Summer of the DC Weather Examiner) 2002: Parts of New Jersey that had barely gotten three inches of snow during the winter were buried in up to 8 inches of hail. People had to break out their snow shovels for the first time of the year. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2006 - Up to 11 inches of rain fell in the Houston, Texas area, causing widespread flash flooding. The Houston Fire Department rescued more than 500 people from flood waters, but no serious injuries or fatalities were reported Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WX-PA Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Countdown to less sunlight begins Sunday morning at 424am...Then the sun SLOWLY starts to move back..you'll start to notice the difference by mid August 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 This was June 15, 2002 3-4 inches of hail and a drift to 8 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 5 hours ago, MJO812 said: Countdown to less sunlight begins Count those seconds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 6 hours ago, MJO812 said: Countdown to less sunlight begins The sun angle today is the same as 6/24... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 Fair and pleasantly warm conditions will prevail during the weekend. Highs will reach the lower 80s with some middle 80s across the region. Monday and Tuesday will be cooler days. Rain is likely on Monday. The potential exists for a general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall. No excessive heat appears likely through at least June 25th. A warming trend could commence during or after the next weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.95°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was +4.15 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.021 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 82% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.8 (1.8° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.4° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 Today's Highs: EWR: 85 BLM: 84 TEB: 84 New Brnswck: 84 JFK: 84 LGA: 84 ACY: 84 PHL: 84 TTN: 83 ISP: 82 NYC: 81 (despite the dryness the park has been well behind / below this year) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 We will see if Monday produces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 71 / 50 gorgeous day out there. Weekend looks amazing. Low - mid 80s. Next shot at widespread rains/storms on Monday >0.75 - 2.00 inches - looking focussed northern areas. Once passed monday trough into the northeast through the 27th but overall near normal. Moderation warming by the close with next heat as ridge and heat expands beyond into the start of next month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 Records: Highs: EWR: 98 (2012) NYC: 98 (1923) LGA: 98 (2012) JFK: 94 (2012) Lows: EWR: 52 (1956) NYC: 49 (1914) LGA: 55 (1959) JFK: 55 (2005) Historical: 1682 - A major tornado ripped through southwestern Connecticut, passing through Stratford, Milford, and New Haven, and then into Long Island Sound. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) 1921 - Circle, MT, received 11.5 inches of rain in 24 hours, a record for the state. The town of Circle received a total of 16.79 inches of rain that month to establish a rainfall record for any town in Montana for any month of the year. (The Weather Channel) 1928 - A farmer near Greensburg, KS, looked up into the heart of a tornado. He described its walls as rotating clouds lit with constant flashes of lightning and a strong gassy odor with a screaming, hissing sound . (The Weather Channel) 1956: A microburst caused a brief wind gust to 58 mph at Stapleton Airport. (Ref. Denver, CO Weather History) 1964 - A squall line producing large hail swept through central Illinois. A second squall line moved through during the early morning hours of the 21st, and a third one moved through shortly after dawn. The series of hailstorms caused nine million dollars damage. Hailstones as large as grapefruit caused heavy damage to trees, utility lines, crops and buildings. The thunderstorms also produced as much as five inches of rain in an eight hour period. (David Ludlum) 1975: Atlantic Beach, NC -- A man was killed on the beach by lightning. Lakeland, Fla.--A 16-year-old boy was killed instantly and his 16-year-old companion was injured when lightning struck a power line adjacent to a tree house in which the boys were located. (Ref. Lightning-The Underrated Killer.pdf) (David Ludlum) 1987 - Thunderstorms prevailed east of the Rockies, producing severe weather in the Central High Plains Region. Thunderstorms spawned four tornadoes in Colorado, and produced wind gusts to 70 mph at Goodland, KS. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Thirty-eight cities in the central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Afternoon highs of 97 degrees at Flint, MI, and 104 degrees at Chicago, IL, equalled records for the month of June. Thunderstorms in North Dakota produced baseball size hail near Kief, and wind gusts to 100 mph near McGregor. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - An early morning thunderstorm produced wind gusts to 61 mph at Pierre, SD, and the hot thunderstorm winds raised the temperature from 86 degrees at midnight to 96 degrees by 1 AM, and 104 degrees by 2 AM. Butte, MT, and Yellowstone Park, WY, reported snow that afternoon. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989:A meteorological "hot flash" hit Pierre. Descending air from collapsing thunderstorms caused the temperature in Pierre to warm from 86 degrees at midnight to 96 at one a.m. and to 104 at 2 a.m. Pierre's record high for the date of 105 degrees in 1974. 2000: Barrow, Alaska: The town of Barrow on Alaska's North Slope experiences its first recorded thunderstorm which dropped 0.16 inches of rain in just a couple minutes. (Ref. WxDoctor) 2001: Large hail driven by strong thunderstorm winds raked Denver International and front-range airports. Wind gusting to 54 mph along with hail as large as 2 inches in diameter punched at least 14 thousand holes and cracks in the flat roofs of several buildings at Denver International Airport. Also, 93 planes and hundreds of cars were damaged. About 100 flights had to be canceled stranding 1500 travelers. The Airport was completely shut down for about 20 minutes. The storm also damaged ground avoidance radar used to track planes on the ground to prevent collisions. Damage was estimated at 10 million dollars not counting the cost to the 93 airliners. The storm moved south and struck Watkins Colorado with hail as large as 2 1/2 inches in diameter and winds gusting to 60 mph. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 7 hours ago, Snowlover11 said: We will see if Monday produces. Euro remains the wettest-GFS/Canadian a nice soaker too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: Euro remains the wettest-GFS/Canadian a nice soaker too. For I-90, sure. Looks like it's bumping north. It's a summer SWFE. I guess the reservoirs are up north so that's something but it's looking like NYC/LI get skunked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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