June 2026

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow and Saturday will be very warm days with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Should Central Park reach 90°, 2026 would become the first year on record that New York City had a high of 80° or above in March and highs of 90° or above in April, May, and June.

Saturday will remain warm before somewhat cooler air arrives to conclude the weekend. Some showers or thundershowers are possible early Sunday. Cooler conditions early next week will give way to a return to above normal temperatures for the remainder of the week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.0°C for the week centered around May 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.90°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer.

The SOI was -35.29 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.920 today. 

 

[psv88]

87 today. What a stretch. 

[SACRUS]

Highs:

 

PHL: 90
EWR: 89
BLM: 89
New Brnswck: 89
ACY: 88
TEB: 87
NYC: 86
TTN: 86
LGA: 86
JFK: 85
ISP: 82

[Rjay]

@MJO812

 

[bluewave]

22 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

1991 is the only one of the high-end el nino events that really compares. There was a heat wave at the end of May, and that really set the tone for the entire summer. 2015, to a lesser extent, but we didn't have the warmth in June, but rather in the back half of the summer into September. Both of those years had a borderline warm neutral/weak el nino leading up to it. We didn't have that in the lead up to this year.

I expected this summer to be a textbook pre-nino summer that was cooler than recent summers, like 1972, 1982, 1986, 1997, 2009, and 2023. If we can't get even get a cool summer in this setting, I wonder what it will take to get one. (Short of a major volcanic eruption, like Pinatubo in 1991, which caused 1992 to be notably colder, I probably don't see it happening any time soon, if not ever.)

The super El Niño warmth has traditionally began later in the summer and persisted into the following summer.

So this year we are getting off to an early start with the warmth. Even against the warmest 1991-2020 means, the ensembles have the usual warm spots close to +7 to +10 over the next 10 days.

Since normal highs this time of year are only in the upper 70s to around 80° next week.

 

[NEG NAO]

a few cooler days after Saturday than the heat returns according to NOAA CPC

[SACRUS]

75 / 54 and getting hot.  90 - 95 in the warmest spots today and tomorrow, Saturday only caveat is more clouds TBD could keep temps a bit below forecast.  Sunday a bit cooler with onshore-ish flow.  The spots topped at 89 yesterday outside of Phlly, so heatwave 2 will need to see an overperforming Sunday otherwise its 2 days of 90s.  Warm back up but still a tendency for weakness/cut offs under the ridge next week before warm-hot flow overall warmer  by Thu and beyond with ridge in the coasts.

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 95 (2021)
NYC: 99 (1925)
LGA: 94 (2021)
JFK: 90 (2010)


Lows:

EWR:  48 (1947)
NYC: 47 (1945)
LGA: 49 (1945)
JFK: 50 (2023)

Historical:

 

1805: A group of tornadoes tracked from southeast Missouri across the southern third of Illinois, and may also have moved into Indiana. These moved across the Mississippi River about 20 miles downstream from St. Louis, MO. Fish were reportedly "scattered all over the prairie" on the Illinois side of the river. Some pine tree tops, not native to that area of Illinois, were believed to have been blown in from at least 50 miles away. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1859 - Frost was reported from Iowa to New England. The temperature dipped to 25 degrees in New York State, and up to two inches of snow blanketed Ohio. The cold and snow damaged the wheat crop. (David Ludlum)

1908 - Helena MT was deluged with 3.67 inches of rain to establish their all-time 24 hour rainfall record. (4th-5th) (The Weather Channel)

1916 - A tornado struck the town of Warren AR killing 83 persons. There were 125 deaths that day in a tornado outbreak across Missouri and Arkansas. (David Ludlum)

1917 - Residents near Topeka KS reported disk-shaped hailstones six to ten inches in diameter, and two to three inches thick. The hailstorm was accompanied by a tornado. (The Weather Channel)

1925: Earliest 100° in Washington, DC. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

1945: Unusually cold air moved in to parts of the upper Midwest. Chicago, IL dropped to 37° after setting a record low the previous morning with 35° while Rockford, IL dropped to 35° on both mornings. Both 35 degree readings established June record lows. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1987 - International Falls, MN, dipped to a record low reading of 34 degrees during the morning. Williston, ND, and Glasgow, MT, reported record warm afternoon highs of 94 degrees. Major flooding was reported along the Guadelupe River in South Texas, with the water level at Cuero reaching 18 feet above flood stage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Twenty cities in the south central and eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Asheville NC with a reading of 40 degrees. Fifteen cities in the north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. The high of 108 degrees at Glasgow MT was a record for June. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Southern Atlantic Coast during the day and into the night. Four tornadoes were reported, and there were 87 reports of large hail and damaging winds. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

 

1995: The Hurricane name was not retired in 1995 thus a different Hurricane Allison is named as the 2001 Hurricane Allison below. Hurricane Allison became the earliest hurricane on record to cross the Florida coast at when it came ashore in Taylor County at Apalachee Bay with 75 mph winds. Hurricane Allison crossed the coast near Alligator Point in the Florida Big Bend area at 0900z on the 5th. At landfall, maximum sustained winds were 69 mph with a minimum central pressure of 990 millibars. Maximum rainfall amounts were between 4 and 6 inches. Storm surge heights were estimated at 6 to 8 feet from Dixie through Wakulla counties. Total storm damage in Florida was estimated at $860,000 dollars. The 1995 Atlantic Hurricane Season went down in the record books as one of the busiest hurricane seasons since 1871. There were a total of 19 named storms, 11 of which reached hurricanes. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1998: An F1 tornado touched down near the town of New Hope, MS creating a path one mile long and 50 yards wide. 13 houses had major damage and another 129 homes had minor damage. 22 mobile homes were either damaged or destroyed. Damages were estimated near $250,000 dollars. Another F1 tornado created a path two miles long and 50 yards wide 10 miles southeast of Hattiesburg, MS. 45 people were injured and two people were killed. The two fatalities were both in automobiles which ran into falling trees or the trees fell on them. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2002: The Wye Oak, estimated to be 460 years old, was toppled by a severe thunderstorm with winds greater than 60 mph. The tree was located at Wye Mills, MD and was over 100 feet tall and had a 31 foot circumference.

[Cfa]

First 89 of the year yesterday. Could’ve been the 6th 90+ of the year.

Warming up quickly again today, low was 54 and it’s already in the 80’s.