June 2026

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow and Saturday will be very warm days with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Should Central Park reach 90°, 2026 would become the first year on record that New York City had a high of 80° or above in March and highs of 90° or above in April, May, and June.

Saturday will remain warm before somewhat cooler air arrives to conclude the weekend. Some showers or thundershowers are possible early Sunday. Cooler conditions early next week will give way to a return to above normal temperatures for the remainder of the week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.0°C for the week centered around May 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.90°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer.

The SOI was -35.29 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.920 today. 

 

[psv88]

87 today. What a stretch. 

[SACRUS]

Highs:

 

PHL: 90
EWR: 89
BLM: 89
New Brnswck: 89
ACY: 88
TEB: 87
NYC: 86
TTN: 86
LGA: 86
JFK: 85
ISP: 82

[Rjay]

@MJO812

 

[bluewave]

22 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

1991 is the only one of the high-end el nino events that really compares. There was a heat wave at the end of May, and that really set the tone for the entire summer. 2015, to a lesser extent, but we didn't have the warmth in June, but rather in the back half of the summer into September. Both of those years had a borderline warm neutral/weak el nino leading up to it. We didn't have that in the lead up to this year.

I expected this summer to be a textbook pre-nino summer that was cooler than recent summers, like 1972, 1982, 1986, 1997, 2009, and 2023. If we can't get even get a cool summer in this setting, I wonder what it will take to get one. (Short of a major volcanic eruption, like Pinatubo in 1991, which caused 1992 to be notably colder, I probably don't see it happening any time soon, if not ever.)

The super El Niño warmth has traditionally began later in the summer and persisted into the following summer.

So this year we are getting off to an early start with the warmth. Even against the warmest 1991-2020 means, the ensembles have the usual warm spots close to +7 to +10 over the next 10 days.

Since normal highs this time of year are only in the upper 70s to around 80° next week.