Blizzard of 2026 Storm Thread/OBS

[PhiEaglesfan712]

22 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

I’d up it to 6-12” for the LV. I think we get into the heavy banding for at least a few hours tomorrow night. I don’t buy the models that completely miss us with it.

Can see that happening. If that does happen, I could see 12-20 inches as far west as the I-95 metro area.

[Heisy]

Oddly enough the euro bombs the low deeper than the NAM.

[The Iceman]

2 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Looks like a deform band through the heart of bucks/montco/chester/Delaware counties and another by the shore. In between there will likely be a subsidence(sp) zone that sees less accumulations. You can see that hinted here. Massive move towards the gfs though, game on!

[RedSky]

6-12" at 10:1 ECM

 

 

[Duca892]

Kind of surprised that Watches up in Lehigh/Berks haven’t been upgraded to Warnings yet. Will undoubtedly happen in 2hrs

[MGorse]

8 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

Kind of surprised that Watches up in Lehigh/Berks haven’t been upgraded to Warnings yet. Will undoubtedly happen in 2hrs

The main forecast update is now finalized usually between 1-2 AM/PM. 

[LVblizzard]

I went fairly aggressive on my page after that Euro run. 8-16” for the Lehigh Valley.  At this point I start to trust mesos more than globals, but that run was the reassurance I needed that we’re probably getting something big.

[penndotguy]

4 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

I went fairly aggressive on my page after that Euro run. 8-16” for the Lehigh Valley.  At this point I start to trust mesos more than globals, but that run was the reassurance I needed that we’re probably getting something big.

Sounds like a good call for Berks to Lehigh 

[mattinpa]

4 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

I went fairly aggressive on my page after that Euro run. 8-16” for the Lehigh Valley.  At this point I start to trust mesos more than globals, but that run was the reassurance I needed that we’re probably getting something big.

It was good seeing that Euro run. I’m thinking about a foot at least in the northern Philly suburbs - maybe higher if we get the banding. 

[Kevin Reilly]

29 minutes ago, Prairie Dog said:

He just put out a new video.  He surrendered.     Now states it will tilt negative and will be a prolonged event  Yesterday he stated quick mover and no negative tilt.  Surprised he was so far off yesterday  He just about doubled his totals for our area

I’m fine with Hurricane.  He’s a Terrific forecaster but honestly looK where we’ve been.  I mean even this year at times has been quite progressive or too blocky no real in between.  The highlights of this winter will be for most 10” of snow followed by almost 4” of sleet, weeks of VERY cold, and this storm here and what it will probably produce. 
This is going to have to be perfect alignment and even a few runs ago days ago who really believed we would be here 

I will say this also the happenings out west, 80f falling to single digits in Nebraska, the tornado event in Illinois and Indiana, and this potential monster east coast storm I believe marks the signal end of La Niña and welcomes us into a weak to moderate El Niño.  It is time.  Seems like La Niña has been going strong since our Tornado filled night back in February 2017. Remember the last time we had a moderate El Niño 2009-2010. 

[Hurricane Agnes]

12z ECs

[Kevin Reilly]

30 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Oddly enough the euro bombs the low deeper than the NAM.

It’s still playing catch up but time is almost up.  It’s like the kid in school rushing to answer the last 5 questions on the test before extended time has come to an end at the conclusion of the school day. 

[The Iceman]

First and only call:

shore points: 16-24”+ maybe a jackpot of 30” though I think 24” will be the lollipops. Potential for 30” is there though.

I 95/295/195/476 corridor 10-16” I think there will be lollipops of 20” wherever the 2nd deformation band away from the shore sets up in here. Unfortunately closer to 10” or possibly even a “bust” of 7-8” whoever gets caught in between the 2 deformation bands.

Lehigh Valley: 6-12” also depends on how far that deformation band makes it nw but I think at minimum 6” is looking like a good bet.

 

Mickeytims house: 0” … we can only hope.

i think this will be a region wide win. Some will just win more than others lol I expect tomorrow during the day will mostly be snow tv, possibly an inch or two on grassy surfaces but once the sun sets and intensity picks up it’s off to the races. 

[Blue Dream]

EPS is amazing as expected 

[MJO812]

Just now, Blue Dream said:

EPS is amazing as expected 

Yep much further west

[Blue Dream]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yep much further west

Can you post it? 

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Blue Dream said:

Can you post it? 

More tucked members

[MickeyTim6533]

warnings hoisted.

 

 

Winter Storm Warning

 

Severity: Severe

Significant threat to life or property

Weather Event Onset

7:00 AM (EST), February 22

Description

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 8 and 16 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Berks, Lehigh, Northampton, Carbon, and Monroe Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 AM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Some blowing snow is likely which could lead to reduced visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.

Action Recommended

Make preparations per the Description.

Urgency

Take action within next hour.

Affected Area

Berks

Issued By

National Weather Service

[Newman]

Widespread winter storm warnings now in effect, blizzard warnings for the coast. Berks and Lehigh Valley are 8-16". 14-18 for Philly, 20-24 for Jersey coast under Blizzard Warning

[Newman]

This is going to be one hell of a storm y'all, easily Top 5 for some and some near the Jersey coast may even see their largest storm ever. Enjoy it and savor it, I will be living vicariously through all of y'all

[Blue Dream]

1 minute ago, Newman said:

Widespread winter storm warnings now in effect, blizzard warnings for the coast. Berks and Lehigh Valley are 8-16". 14-18 for Philly, 20-24 for Jersey coast under Blizzard Warning

It’s happening 

[Heisy]

Here was eps, the black dot I made is where the OP was

[Lucy Pull]

8 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Here was eps, the black dot I made is where the OP was

Clustered west. Those easterly lows probably dragging mean down quite a bit.

[jwilson]

I'd chase this one if I wasn't sick.  Can't believe the Goofus might actually get one right this season.

[MickeyTim6533]

does anyone think this will come even more west?

[Kevin Reilly]

14 minutes ago, Newman said:

Widespread winter storm warnings now in effect, blizzard warnings for the coast. Berks and Lehigh Valley are 8-16". 14-18 for Philly, 20-24 for Jersey coast under Blizzard Warning

Blizzard warnings to the Delaware River now.

[Duca892]

Winter Storm Warning for 8-16in in the Valley. 

[Lucy Pull]

15z SREF did not disappoint. 

9z to 15z trend

 

 

[Blue Dream]

6 minutes ago, jwilson said:

I'd chase this one if I wasn't sick.  Can't believe the Goofus might actually get one right this season.

No need to chase, we’re all getting crushed. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

51 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I’m fine with Hurricane.  He’s a Terrific forecaster but honestly looK where we’ve been.  I mean even this year at times has been quite progressive or too blocky no real in between.  The highlights of this winter will be for most 10” of snow followed by almost 4” of sleet, weeks of VERY cold, and this storm here and what it will probably produce. 
This is going to have to be perfect alignment and even a few runs ago days ago who really believed we would be here 

I will say this also the happenings out west, 80f falling to single digits in Nebraska, the tornado event in Illinois and Indiana, and this potential monster east coast storm I believe marks the signal end of La Niña and welcomes us into a weak to moderate El Niño.  It is time.  Seems like La Niña has been going strong since our Tornado filled night back in February 2017. Remember the last time we had a moderate El Niño 2009-2010. 

2009-10 was technically a strong el nino, as it went above 1.5 on both the ONI and RONI. So our last moderate el nino was 2002-03.