H2O Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 56 minutes ago, paulythegun said: ha yep look at that warm air wrapping into it on the 850mb panel I think it is going thru an ERC. Tropical snowcane!!!! 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 hour ago, LeesburgWx said: There are several variables at play here that likely won`t be resolved with much more clarity for another day or two. So when snow starts falling, we will know About 6 hours before onset. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 6 minutes ago, baltosquid said: This is not going to tilt, obviously. GFS consolidates those. Euro does not. Fujiwhara Effect... it would be even bigger than the GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 4 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Honestly that talk like models showing 0-30” and an admission that the best science just has no real idea and won’t . I’m glad they admitted this . This is where all of our "Ya wanna know the weather I'll tell you... just get up out of bed and look out the window. Whatever is going on outside that's what it is.", people, make fun of our weather hobby lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 One thing to look at today is if there's a severe weather outbreak over the southern Il and IN and spreading east which the Euro is predicting vs the GFS which is predicting less of a outbreak that dies out quickly as it moves east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 8 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Congrats Chesapeake Bay. Should help mitigate the sewage spill from the potomac downstream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 2 minutes ago, H2O said: I think it is going thru an ERC. Tropical snowcane!!!! Concentric deathbands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Will point out for those interested in seeing snow Sunday we got two pretty good options. Firstly, there’ll be a good upslope on the WV ridges. Secondly, most models agree Shenandoah will be able to squeeze out some accumulations even if the coastal misses. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Will point out for those interested in seeing snow Sunday we got two pretty good options. Firstly, there’ll be a good upslope on the WV ridges. Secondly, most models agree Shenandoah will be able to squeeze out some accumulations even if the coastal misses. @EastCoast NPZ vehemently disagrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 21 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Yeah, if you have appropriate expectations I think euro looks good. Norrisville jackpot @mappy!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 16 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: F it I’ll take it It’s too late in the season for wimpy snowstorms. Mecs or above is the only option. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 FWIW the euro (all of them, Op, AI, ens, ensAI) did trend to a stronger wave… it’s just such a shitty arrangement of pieces. Idk what it would take to get them to play nice from ~36 on like the GFS has. But that’s the problem we’ve come to know quite well. Crowded NS stepping on its own feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 minute ago, baltosquid said: FWIW the euro (all of them, Op, AI, ens, ensAI) did trend to a stronger wave… it’s just such a shitty arrangement of pieces. Idk what it would take to get them to play nice from ~36 on like the GFS has. But that’s the problem we’ve come to know quite well. Crowded NS stepping on its own feet. 500 map does look like a too many cooks in the kitchen scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 16 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: This is where all of our "Ya wanna know the weather I'll tell you... just get up out of bed and look out the window. Whatever is going on outside that's what it is.", people, make fun of our weather hobby lol. I would never pay a dime for the info. They should never attempt any forecast until whatever it is that is supposed to ignite all this is at Least 1/3rd of the way across the nation. The cover all bases is very real and highly suspect 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 48 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Honestly that talk like models showing 0-30” and an admission that the best science just has no real idea and won’t . I’m glad they admitted this . I think you have a misunderstanding. No one thinks the models are perfect and don’t need to continue to improve. But what’s the alternative? They’re just a tool. A good forecaster also factors in historical knowledge and sound meteorological principles. But they didn’t start using models because they’re lazy. They did because other methods are even worse! One day forecast used to bust horribly using pre model methodology. Forecasts and warning times have improved substantially because of the utilization of models. So while they are flawed what’s your method that would be better? Most non model methods wouldn’t even work beyond a couple days! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 why is the GFS the way it is 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Identical to 06z essentially 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: why is the GFS the way it is Sorry if already posted, but I heard from a coworker that the new parallel version of the GFS (v17) didn't even have a low last night! Are we gonna go from one extreme to another with this model? 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Identical to 06z essentially Looks like 80% give us at least a inch but only 15% greater than 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 19 Author Share Posted February 19 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: why is the GFS the way it is @Eskimo Joe gave a good breakdown of this in our banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 39 minutes ago, baltosquid said: This is not going to tilt, obviously. GFS consolidates those. Euro does not. Yeah. Its a kicker. Not a phaser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 10 minutes ago, rjvanals said: Looks like 80% give us at least a inch but only 15% greater than 4" EPS really wants the IVT overhead. Get a nickel and dimer on the board even at the 10th percentile. Median looks solid 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 11 minutes ago, rjvanals said: Looks like 80% give us at least a inch but only 15% greater than 4" But yes - no member has DCA over 6". To say the GFS is on a different world is an understatement. Different parallel universe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: why is the GFS the way it is It might be the current administration leaking into the core of the american model. Think about it - you never know what's going to come out of the white house on any given day and half the time it's over the top bonkers and changes by the next news cycle. The GFS is basically doing the exact same thing. Maybe it's all by design... 1 3 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I think you have a misunderstanding. No one brings the models are perfect and don’t need to continue to improve. But what’s the alternative? They’re just a tool. A good forecaster also factors in historical knowledge and sound meteorological principles. But they didn’t start using models because they’re lazy. They didn’t because other methods are even worse! One day forecast used to bust horribly using pre model methodology. Forecasts and warning times have improved substantially because of the utilization of models. So while they are flawed what’s your method that would be better? Most non model methods wouldn’t even work beyond a couple days! The”what’s the alternative” has never worked for me. That’s what real science does-finds its way to the correct resolution. You have said you enjoy looking at the projected examples. . I enjoy correct, logically assembled information. Predicting a monster snowstorm,or zero , Before the vital factor has even hit the west coast is ridiculous. It can’t be done so why produce such? And for a technical suggestion, that 500 mb vorticity chart is a stringy mess like a human genome chart . You enjoy the lead up while I enjoy the nowcasts of an event. The lead up don’t mean much when it is so incredibly erratic that’s it’s an admission of “it can’t be predicted” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 This is such a nothing event complicated by 1 truly lousy model. Will I be eating my words? Doubt it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 19 Author Share Posted February 19 1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said: The”what’s the alternative” has never worked for me. That what real science does-finds its way to the correct resolution. You have said you enjoy looking at the projected examples. . I enjoy correct, logically assembled information. Predicting a monster snowstorm or zero Before the vital factor has even hit the west coast is ridiculous. It can’t be done so why produce such? And for a technical suggestion, that 500 mb vorticity chart is a stringy mess like a human genome chart . You enjoy the lead up while I enjoy the niwcasts of an event. The lead up don’t mean much when it is so incredibly erratic that’s it’s an admission of “it can’t be predicted” Well then good sir...and I mean this respectfully...why do you bother tracking on this forum? If nowcasting is what you rely on...why not just follow that? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 8 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: The”what’s the alternative” has never worked for me. That what real science does-finds its way to the correct resolution. You have said you enjoy looking at the projected examples. . I enjoy correct, logically assembled information. Predicting a monster snowstorm or zero Before the vital factor has even hit the west coast is ridiculous. It can’t be done so why produce such? And for a technical suggestion, that 500 mb vorticity chart is a stringy mess like a human genome chart . You enjoy the lead up while I enjoy the niwcasts of an event. The lead up don’t mean much when it is so incredibly erratic that’s it’s an admission of “it can’t be predicted” The real skilled Mets here aren’t predicting a blizzard. No one is buying that crazy gfs run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diatae Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 23 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: why is the GFS the way it is It has to be taking hits of the purest cocaine before it runs. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 28 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: why is the GFS the way it is Same reason my first wife is the way she is..... I don't trust her either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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