Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[H2O]

56 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

ha yep look at that warm air wrapping into it on the 850mb panel

 

I think it is going thru an ERC.  Tropical snowcane!!!!

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, LeesburgWx said:

There are several variables at play here that likely won`t be
resolved with much more clarity for another day or two.

So when snow starts falling, we will know

About 6 hours before onset.  

[Interstate]

6 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

This is not going to tilt, obviously. GFS consolidates those. Euro does not.

Fujiwhara Effect... it would be even bigger than the GFS

[wasnow215]

4 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Honestly that talk like  models showing 0-30” and an admission that the best science just has no real idea and won’t .  I’m glad they admitted this .

This is where all of our "Ya wanna know the weather I'll tell you... just get up out of bed and look out the window. Whatever is going on outside that's what it is.", people, make fun of our weather hobby lol.

[rjvanals]

One thing to look at today is if there's a severe weather outbreak over the southern Il and IN and spreading east which the Euro is predicting vs the GFS which is predicting less of a outbreak that dies out quickly as it moves east 

[H2O]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Congrats Chesapeake Bay.  Should help mitigate the sewage spill from the potomac downstream

[Amped]

2 minutes ago, H2O said:

I think it is going thru an ERC.  Tropical snowcane!!!!

Concentric deathbands

[SnowenOutThere]

Will point out for those interested in seeing snow Sunday we got two pretty good options. Firstly, there’ll be a good upslope on the WV ridges. Secondly, most models agree Shenandoah will be able to squeeze out some accumulations even if the coastal misses. 

[ravensrule]

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Will point out for those interested in seeing snow Sunday we got two pretty good options. Firstly, there’ll be a good upslope on the WV ridges. Secondly, most models agree Shenandoah will be able to squeeze out some accumulations even if the coastal misses. 

@EastCoast NPZ vehemently disagrees. 

[mappy]

21 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah, if you have appropriate expectations I think euro looks good. Norrisville jackpot @mappy!!

 

[87storms]

16 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

F it I’ll take it 

It’s too late in the season for wimpy snowstorms. Mecs or above is the only option.

[baltosquid]

FWIW the euro (all of them, Op, AI, ens, ensAI) did trend to a stronger wave… it’s just such a shitty arrangement of pieces. Idk what it would take to get them to play nice from ~36 on like the GFS has. But that’s the problem we’ve come to know quite well. Crowded NS stepping on its own feet.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, baltosquid said:

FWIW the euro (all of them, Op, AI, ens, ensAI) did trend to a stronger wave… it’s just such a shitty arrangement of pieces. Idk what it would take to get them to play nice from ~36 on like the GFS has. But that’s the problem we’ve come to know quite well. Crowded NS stepping on its own feet.

500 map does look like a too many cooks in the kitchen scenario.  

[WEATHER53]

16 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

This is where all of our "Ya wanna know the weather I'll tell you... just get up out of bed and look out the window. Whatever is going on outside that's what it is.", people, make fun of our weather hobby lol.

I would never pay a dime for the info.

They should never attempt any forecast until whatever it is that is supposed to ignite all this is at Least  1/3rd of the way across the nation.

The cover all bases is very real and highly suspect 

 

[psuhoffman]

48 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Honestly that talk like  models showing 0-30” and an admission that the best science just has no real idea and won’t .  I’m glad they admitted this .

I think you have a misunderstanding. No one thinks the models are perfect and don’t need to continue to improve. But what’s the alternative?  They’re just a tool. A good forecaster also factors in historical knowledge and sound meteorological principles. But they didn’t start using models because they’re lazy. They did because other methods are even worse!  One day forecast used to bust horribly using pre model methodology. Forecasts and warning times have improved substantially because of the utilization of models.  So while they are flawed what’s your method that would be better?  Most non model methods wouldn’t even work beyond a couple days!  

[brooklynwx99]

why is the GFS the way it is

[NorthArlington101]

Identical to 06z essentially

[WxMan1]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

why is the GFS the way it is

Sorry if already posted, but I heard from a coworker that the new parallel version of the GFS (v17) didn't even have a low last night! Are we gonna go from one extreme to another with this model?

[rjvanals]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Identical to 06z essentially

Looks like 80% give us at least a inch but only 15% greater than 4" 

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

why is the GFS the way it is

@Eskimo Joe gave a good breakdown of this in our banter thread.

[clskinsfan]

39 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

This is not going to tilt, obviously. GFS consolidates those. Euro does not.

Yeah. Its a kicker. Not a phaser. 

[NorthArlington101]

10 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

Looks like 80% give us at least a inch but only 15% greater than 4" 

EPS really wants the IVT overhead. Get a nickel and dimer on the board even at the 10th percentile. Median looks solid

[NorthArlington101]

11 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

Looks like 80% give us at least a inch but only 15% greater than 4" 

But yes - no member has DCA over 6". To say the GFS is on a different world is an understatement. Different parallel universe

[IronTy]

13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

why is the GFS the way it is

It might be the current administration leaking into the core of the american model.  Think about it - you never know what's going to come out of the white house on any given day and half the time it's over the top bonkers and changes by the next news cycle.  The GFS is basically doing the exact same thing.  Maybe it's all by design...

[WEATHER53]

19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think you have a misunderstanding. No one brings the models are perfect and don’t need to continue to improve. But what’s the alternative?  They’re just a tool. A good forecaster also factors in historical knowledge and sound meteorological principles. But they didn’t start using models because they’re lazy. They didn’t because other methods are even worse!  One day forecast used to bust horribly using pre model methodology. Forecasts and warning times have improved substantially because of the utilization of models.  So while they are flawed what’s your method that would be better?  Most non model methods wouldn’t even work beyond a couple days!  

The”what’s the alternative” has never worked for me.  That’s  what real science does-finds  its way to the correct resolution. You have said you enjoy looking at the projected examples. . I enjoy correct, logically assembled information. Predicting a monster  snowstorm,or zero , Before the vital factor has even hit the west coast is ridiculous. It can’t be done so why produce such?  
And for a technical suggestion, that 500 mb vorticity  chart is a stringy mess like a human genome chart . You enjoy the lead up while I enjoy the nowcasts  of an event.  The lead up don’t mean much when it is so incredibly erratic that’s it’s an admission of “it can’t be predicted” 

[mitchnick]

This is such a nothing event complicated by 1 truly lousy model.

Will I be eating my words? Doubt it.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

The”what’s the alternative” has never worked for me.  That what real science does-finds  its way to the correct resolution. You have said you enjoy looking at the projected examples. . I enjoy correct, logically assembled information. Predicting a monster  snowstorm or zero Before the vital factor has even hit the west coast is ridiculous. It can’t be done so why produce such?  
And for a technical suggestion, that 500 mb vorticity  chart is a stringy mess like a human genome chart . You enjoy the lead up while I enjoy the niwcasts of an event.  The lead up don’t mean much when it is so incredibly erratic that’s it’s an admission of “it can’t be predicted” 

Well then good sir...and I mean this respectfully...why do you bother tracking on this forum? If nowcasting is what you rely on...why not just follow that?

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

The”what’s the alternative” has never worked for me.  That what real science does-finds  its way to the correct resolution. You have said you enjoy looking at the projected examples. . I enjoy correct, logically assembled information. Predicting a monster  snowstorm or zero Before the vital factor has even hit the west coast is ridiculous. It can’t be done so why produce such?  
And for a technical suggestion, that 500 mb vorticity  chart is a stringy mess like a human genome chart . You enjoy the lead up while I enjoy the niwcasts of an event.  The lead up don’t mean much when it is so incredibly erratic that’s it’s an admission of “it can’t be predicted” 

The real skilled Mets here aren’t predicting a blizzard. No one is buying that crazy gfs run. 

[diatae]

23 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

why is the GFS the way it is

It has to be taking hits of the purest cocaine before it runs.

[winter_warlock]

28 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

why is the GFS the way it is

Same reason my first wife is the way she is..... I don't trust her either