“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, vortex95 said:

No, his classic line when I would downplay an event, he'd always go, "WE'LL SEE!!!"

Nice! I see you .. you see me !!!

[TheSnowman]

6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Is the great support in the room with us?

It’s a coin flip, at best. Some major players showing not much, and 18z moved decidedly in that direction 

1. Which Major Players are NOT showing it?

2. How many times has the GFS or Euro shown a Major Storm almost exactly the same way for 8 tim’s in a row?  

 

I can’t Believe the negativity on this thing.  

The only fun here is Kevin and I are on the same page for Once.  

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

As long as the machines look like this at H5 we’re in the game

Can we get that tucked inside the elbow? Asking for a friend.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, TheSnowman said:

1. Which Major Players are NOT showing it?

2. How many times has the GFS or Euro shown a Major Storm almost exactly the same way for 8 tim’s in a row?  

 

I can’t Believe the negativity on this thing.  

The only fun here is Kevin and I are on the same page for Once.  

It’s rare for sure. Can you squeeze out a love song for us? Faithfully by Journey maybe ?

[PineHillsWx]

6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

This system is out in model purgatory land right now. Let’s see what we got when we’re down to 72-84hrs. No model has had any level of accuracy beyond this point this winter season.

Words of wisdom! 

[vortex95]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

As long as the machines look like this at H5 we’re in the game

One reason why the ECMWF may be off on its own, it may not being handling (or handling better?) the Wed and Fri events.  A lot IMHO hinges on how those impact things upstream and downstream.  This is not a your typical calm pre-storm environment.  It's a bit "crowded" aloft as to s/w.  Subtle differences can magnify greatly as to details in 4-5 days.
 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

1. Which Major Players are NOT showing it? Euro

2. How many times has the GFS or Euro shown a Major Storm almost exactly the same way for 8 tim’s in a row?  Stupid question, has no relevance at d6

 

I can’t Believe the negativity on this thing.  Deal

The only fun here is Kevin and I are on the same page for Once.  Hotel reservation incoming?

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You’ve accomplished your goal . You’ve dragged Dryslot and Runaway and other good posters into your negative , everything sucks mentality 

lol what. Again, I’m calling it like I see it. You can choose to ignore the euro suite, I’m not. It’s a factor, sorry 

[40/70 Benchmark]

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/02/a-tale-of-three-disturbances.html

What is evident on Friday night is disturbance #3 entering the fray may by moving into the north plains.  The crucial difference here is that shortly after the system descends south of the Canadien border, ridging begins to build over the western COUNS intramountain region.

 

This allows ample room for amplification under the aforementioned PV-block dyad due to the fact that southeast heights decrease as a result of the building western CONUS ridge.

 

 

Note the decreased amplitude and further east position of the ridge in guidance from Sunday.

 

While this does in fact represent a more favorable ridge placement and intensity for major east coast storms, the fact that it remains marginal in conjunction with increased confluence to the north still implies that a major storm is dubious.

[dendrite]

This is just a weird way to squash it and other models have a much different look

[JACKASS]

7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

 

When he gets shit once again, he'll have another meltdown that we're somehow suppose to care about.

Wash, rinse, repeat.

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

lol what. Again, I’m calling it like I see it. You can choose to ignore the euro suite, I’m not. It’s a factor, sorry 

Suite ? It’s the op and it’s not being ignored . It’s just not being factored higher than anything else 6-7 days out 

[kdxken]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/02/a-tale-of-three-disturbances.html

 

What is evident on Friday night is disturbance #3 entering the fray may by moving into the north plains.  The crucial difference here is that shortly after the system descends south of the Canadien border, ridging begins to build over the western COUNS intramountain region.

 

This allows ample room for amplification under the aforementioned PV-block dyad due to the fact that southeast heights decrease as a result of the building western CONUS ridge.

 

 

Note the decreased amplitude and further east position of the ridge in guidance from Sunday.

 

While this does in fact represent a more favorable ridge placement and intensity for major east coast storms, the fact that it remains marginal in conjunction with increased confluence to the north still implies that a major storm is dubious.

You couldn't resist could you.

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/02/a-tale-of-three-disturbances.html

 

What is evident on Friday night is disturbance #3 entering the fray may by moving into the north plains.  The crucial difference here is that shortly after the system descends south of the Canadien border, ridging begins to build over the western COUNS intramountain region.

 

This allows ample room for amplification under the aforementioned PV-block dyad due to the fact that southeast heights decrease as a result of the building western CONUS ridge.

 

 

Note the decreased amplitude and further east position of the ridge in guidance from Sunday.

 

While this does in fact represent a more favorable ridge placement and intensity for major east coast storms, the fact that it remains marginal in conjunction with increased confluence to the north still implies that a major storm is dubious.

That final panel is like 2/1989 exactly.  I always say if you see that you better have a very strong -NAO.  12/26/10 was close to that too but not same orientation.  The ridge was taller

[moneypitmike]

27 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I didn't say it was gone, Its still days away but today's trends have been less favorable, You still need to weigh the euro even if its been off, Still plenty of time left on this, Need to get past tomorrow and see where Saturday ends up first, Otherwise we follow the trends.

I don't think we were ever in the game with this one anyway.  Mattapoisett might have a fun time with it though.

I think we'll score a couple  Friday night though.

[dryslot]

Just now, moneypitmike said:

I don't think we were ever in the game with this one anyway.  Mattapoisett might have a fun time with it though.

I think we'll score a couple  Friday night though.

I disagree, You don't write off day 6 threats, But i already stated we need to see where these next 2 end up, Sure we can see a couple friday night saturday, But i want to see that one further north then modeled right now.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

15 minutes ago, JACKASS said:

When he gets shit once again, he'll have another meltdown that we're somehow suppose to care about.

Wash, rinse, repeat.

True. He is very happy and positive right now. Someone must have played with his accordion this weekend. 

[dendrite]

30 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s rare for sure. Can you squeeze out a love song for us? Faithfully by Journey maybe ?

 

[JACKASS]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

True. He is very happy and positive right now. Someone must have played with his accordion this weekend. 

Ray's crack-whore?

[Kitz Craver]

26 minutes ago, dendrite said:

This is just a weird way to squash it and other models have a much different look

Nice visual, yeah that’s odd looking

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Nice visual, yeah that’s odd looking

There’s a decaying block initially but the euro op tries turning it into a smaller scale rex block 

[WeatherGeek2025]

EPS anyone?

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

EPS anyone?

I had chat make it more futuristic 

[JACKASS]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

I had chat make it more futuristic 

Do the Great Lakes being on fire help or hurt our snow chances?

[ORH_wxman]

Euro could be right but I’m still hedging toward more amplified for reasons I posted earlier in this thread. It also has not been good at all this season when on an island. 
 

I do think it’s telling though that the “glue factory” posts about the euro are not very plentiful at the moment. Tells me most people don’t believe that rhetoric. 
 

Kevin and Accordions not withstanding. 

[tunafish]

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I had chat make it more futuristic 

You forgot to include their logo.

[vortex95]

57 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/02/a-tale-of-three-disturbances.html

 

What is evident on Friday night is disturbance #3 entering the fray may by moving into the north plains.  The crucial difference here is that shortly after the system descends south of the Canadien border, ridging begins to build over the western COUNS intramountain region.

 

This allows ample room for amplification under the aforementioned PV-block dyad due to the fact that southeast heights decrease as a result of the building western CONUS ridge.

 

 

Note the decreased amplitude and further east position of the ridge in guidance from Sunday.

 

While this does in fact represent a more favorable ridge placement and intensity for major east coast storms, the fact that it remains marginal in conjunction with increased confluence to the north still implies that a major storm is dubious.

Great analysis, and I learn a new vocab work..."DYAD!"

[dryslot]

21 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I had chat make it more futuristic 

And it still looks like crap.

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Does vortex work for scooter? Is he his father maybe? Whatever it is…he ACWATT. 

Is it possible that “working” is a cover for Vortex is my daddy? Could there be three generations of Scooters in here? 

[WeatherGeek2025]

41 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I had chat make it more futuristic 

good one cuzo