Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[Metasequoia]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

 

okay

Negligible changes in pressure. Not important at this stage, regardless.

[MJO812]

Ai gefs west of 12z

[Metasequoia]

 

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ai gefs west of 12z

That's quite a gpf for five days out.

[Yanksfan]

Lee Goldberg who I consider one of the more reliable Mets out there is really downplaying the Sunday threat. He said that the overall pattern does not support a strong storm. Also notes that there will be limited cold air and it will be a fast mover. Am I missing something? 

 

 

 

[MJO812]

Euro AI way east. Models are all over.

[Nibor]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Euro AI way east. Models are all over.

I wouldn't say way east.

[nycsnow]

5 minutes ago, Nibor said:

I wouldn't say way east.

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, nycsnow said:

How about the 18z

[EastonSN+]

Any word on the 18z ukmet?

[Roger Smith]

Still at the pub. 

[EastonSN+]

Actually they posted the snow map in the MA forum for the AI. Looks like a 3 to 6 event here. Philly DC 6 to 12.

[EastonSN+]

They posted the GEFS too.

7 out of 30 members have 6 plus.

2 members foot plus.

15 members 1 to 3 or nothing.

[nycsnow]

7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

How about the 18z

Sorry meant to post it 

[mob1]

Euro still not on board at 18Z

[EastonSN+]

23 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GEFS shows about a 23% of accumulating snow. Not saying it is correct, but keep expectations in check.

From MA forum 

[Jt17]

Sorry meant to post it 

Still not seeing 18z how did it compare to 12z


.

[SnowGoose69]

I am still going for a miss at the moment.  But obviously its still a ways out but if you asked me now what happens and need an answer I'd say this one whiffs 

[weatherpruf]

33 minutes ago, Yanksfan said:

Lee Goldberg who I consider one of the more reliable Mets out there is really downplaying the Sunday threat. He said that the overall pattern does not support a strong storm. Also notes that there will be limited cold air and it will be a fast mover. Am I missing something? 

 

 

 

i'm with him; he's one of the more reliable mets out there. then again, when has the overall pattern really delivered for us in recent years? all i ever hear about is wasted cold.....

[NEG NAO]

7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I am still going for a miss at the moment.  But obviously its still a ways out but if you asked me now what happens and need an answer I'd say this one whiffs 

agreed - I don't like that the ensembles give little support to these overdone OP runs - we have been down this road before 5 days out - time will tell

[EastonSN+]

Not over yet but the funny part was the EURO op stood alone at one point lol.

Atrocious model performance outside of the EURO despite the fact that it was over 5 days.

[EastonSN+]

The only teleconectiion that supported a big hit was the negative PNA.

Red flag.

[Prue11]

48 minutes ago, Yanksfan said:

Lee Goldberg who I consider one of the more reliable Mets out there is really downplaying the Sunday threat. He said that the overall pattern does not support a strong storm. Also notes that there will be limited cold air and it will be a fast mover. Am I missing something? 

 

 

 

I like him too and I can see where he’s coming from. We’ve had so many chances this winter and only two big ones played out (mid December and January)

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Not over yet but the funny part was the EURO op stood alone at one point lol.

Atrocious model performance outside of the EURO despite the fact that it was over 5 days.

Also - its curious that the Canadian wanted nothing to do with the storm phase then all of a sudden last night at 0Z and again at 12Z did an about face with a blizzard solution -0Z runs and beyond  should be interesting

[nycsnow]

Wow writings on the wall lol we get fooled every week. People will start looking at a storm that’s 8 days out all over a again, rinse repeat 

[Dark Star]

6 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

For NYC and south yes. There's another half of the forum north of NYC. 

You folks are in a different climate...

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

The only teleconectiion that supported a big hit was the negative PNA.

Red flag.

Throwing in the towel 5 days out ? There is also some blocking. 

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Wow writings on the wall lol we get fooled every week. People will start looking at a storm that’s 8 days out all over a again, rinse repeat 

I guess the METS that don't like this pattern for a storm don't agree that the -PNA/AO supports larger storms that Don pointed out last night - Don had proof of this

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Wow writings on the wall lol we get fooled every week. People will start looking at a storm that’s 8 days out all over a again, rinse repeat 

Models usually lose storms in the mid range to bring it back. Are you new ?

[nycsnow]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Models usually lose storms in the mid range to bring it back. Are you new ?

Typically yes, this year it’s been a torturous slow process of trending worse. Hopefully everything trends back at 00z, can’t expect a hit every run I guess 

[nycsnow]

We’re getting recon data tonight and 00z tom