Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[Jt17]

Just close enough to wave goodbye as it slams Cape Cod. Late developing Miller B's are never good for this area.

6 inches into the city on this run.


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[mob1]

I would take the GFS verbatim (the surface depiction) in a heartbeat. 

[Jersey_Snowhole]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

we will still see some snow

No doubt, but we want that ridge placement further west 

[NEG NAO]

that 12Z solution would work for me- lets not get greedy

[MJO812]

Cmc much better

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

it still is snowing in the immediate metro and still 5 days out this is not set in stone only 1 model run

 

1 minute ago, Wxbear25 said:

Verbatim, yes.

Right now we shouldn’t care about verbatim

The upper levels improved significantly and were 4 days out. If this were happening tomorrow, sure, we could just dismiss the threat. But it aint

I take that 500mb chart and roll the dice any day of the week, it’s not far off AT ALL

I'm not writing this off 5 days out. I just know from experience that this setup favors SNE. Aside from a few runs here and there, most of the snow has been from the initial overrunning/inverted trough, rather than from the coastal itself, which develops too far offshore. Even the 18z GFS from yesterday, which was really tucked in at H5, had most of the precip offshore.

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc much better

Crushes mid Atlantic coast

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

that 12Z solution would work for me- lets not get greedy

This is probably close to the ceiling with this unless there are a few significant changes.

[MJO812]

Cmc

[WeatherGeek2025]

CMC is a blizzard

[SACRUS]

 

2/18 12z GFS Total QPF

 

[MJO812]

[Wxbear25]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

This is probably close to the ceiling with this unless there are a few significant changes.

You are wildly selling this setup short

Will it happen? Not sure. But the ceiling here is tremendous

[mob1]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Crushes mid Atlantic coast

Plenty nice for us, but good God does it obliterate coastal areas from southern NJ to VA with snow and wind. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc

cmc is a blizzard for NyC and east it's that simple! 

[SACRUS]

 

2/18 12z GGEM

 

Total QPF

[mob1]

I think you can make an argument that the CMC improved from its last run...

[SACRUS]

47 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

2/1 12z Summary

 

NYC 

ICON: 0
GFS AI AIGFS: 0.2
GFS: 0.7
GGEM: 0.8

Updated

[Nibor]

7 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

No doubt, but we want that ridge placement further west 

Ridge placement I think is workable if the Saturday energy can get out of the way in time.

[Jt17]

cmc is a blizzard for NyC and east it's that simple! 

50 mile jog further west and and cmc would be a HECs


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[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, Wxbear25 said:

You are wildly selling this setup short

Will it happen? Not sure. But the ceiling here is tremendous

Yeah anywhere from 0 to 18" is still on the table within 50 miles of nyc

[NJwx85]

3 minutes ago, Wxbear25 said:

You are wildly selling this setup short

Will it happen? Not sure. But the ceiling here is tremendous

My past experience tells me otherwise, but let's see where we are at this time on Friday. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

this is going to keep trending north and we gonna tuck watch! No scientific reasoning but trends all year have been north and we trending north now!

[Jersey_Snowhole]

1 minute ago, Nibor said:

Ridge placement I think is workable if the Saturday energy can get out of the way in time.

I agree, a lot of moving parts goes without saying timing will be very crucial. 

[NEG NAO]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc much better

Canadian looks similar to the GFS - Euro coming further west at 6Z started this - proves the Euro is still the leader of the pack

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

this is going to keep trending north and we gonna tuck watch! No scientific reasoning but trends all year have been north and we trending north now!

Um not true. Remember our blizzard that instead hit the Carolinas? 

[Wxbear25]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

My past experience tells me otherwise, but let's see where we are at this time on Friday. 

I mean, yeah, it could change and the most likely scenario isn’t a massive HECS… but you’re telling me the ceiling, which is the top should everything fall exactly right, is 6-10”?

I don’t take issue with your experience or forecasting chops, just the notion of that low a ceiling this far out given the look

also, if anything, I’d be more worried about it “blowing its load”, so to speak, south of us than hitting SNE more, unless you’re specifically referring to like the Cape as opposed to the region at large

[Wxbear25]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah anywhere from 0 to 18" is still on the table within 50 miles of nyc

Quite literally. We’re in like Notre Dame cathedral here, floor to ceiling is massive

[WeatherGeek2025]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Canadian looks similar to the GFS - Euro coming further west at 6Z started this - proves the Euro is still the leader of the pack

euro sucks it's the Euro Ai that's king always showed a storm and i bet $10 that euro ai will tuck on the next run!

[Jersey_Snowhole]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

euro sucks it's the Euro Ai that's king always showed a storm and i bet $10 that euro ai will tuck on the next run!

I’ll take that bet