Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[wthrmn654]

Which snowman here is obsessed with wind events?  This could be your storm

[Dan76]

10 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Wow writings on the wall lol we get fooled every week. People will start looking at a storm that’s 8 days out all over a again, rinse repeat 

[NEG NAO]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Models usually lose storms in the mid range to bring it back. Are you new ?

majority of ensemble members have yet to fully support the OPS - except maybe an AI ensemble which is not a proven in the long term to be accurate yet - so they never actually lost the storm

[nycsnow]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

majority of ensemble members have yet to fully support the OPS - except maybe an AI ensemble which is not a proven in the long term to be accurate yet - so they never actually lost the storm

We’re about to see another slow torturous trend of a miss huh? Haha

[Jt17]

The Euro Ai is a wobble away from where it was earlier. Tons of potential with this system, some beautiful classic off hour model quite meltdowns happening. Somethings never change.


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[SnowGoose69]

Just now, nycsnow said:

We’re about to see another slow torturous trend of a miss huh? Haha

I think this is either gone or established as a likely impact by this time Thursday.  There should be a solid move towards one idea or another by then

[WeatherGeek2025]

omg it's 5 days out and we didn't lose the storm! Jeez you guys act like babies sometimes. Let it play out

[TJW014]

This sub is more bipolar than Kahn Souphanousinphone

[mriceyman]

omg it's 5 days out and we didn't lose the storm! Jeez you guys act like babies sometimes. Let it play out

Kinda like how u started a thread then had it locked 4 days out. Let it play out lol


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[CPcantmeasuresnow]

39 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

You folks are in a different climate...

For sure but still part of the same forum. 

[Big Jims Videos]

IF this happens, we're in mid moon phase to limit coastal flooding. I would like to see what the max wind potential is of a bombing storm this rapidly.  

[wishcast_hater]

Wow writings on the wall lol we get fooled every week. People will start looking at a storm that’s 8 days out all over a again, rinse repeat 

.

[weatherpruf]

well, i am 63 and can count on one hand the number of big snows after mid feb in cnj. 

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, wishcast_hater said:

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an unsung classic. great from start to finish.

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, nycsnow said:

Wow writings on the wall lol we get fooled every week. People will start looking at a storm that’s 8 days out all over a again, rinse repeat 

Been playing kick the can since 1/25.    Still early and we weren't going to be in the bullseye 5 days straight...but the worrying thing is that most of these storms have been wide right this year.  OP euro not having anything is concerning...  See what happens tomorrow...

[Freezing Drizzle]

19 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

well, i am 63 and can count on one hand the number of big snows after mid feb in cnj. 

Hmmm. Fwiw, on the 12"+ snowstorm list for CPK (28 total), only one is in late February, February 25-26, 2010.

[ForestHillWx]

Gotta love this place; primary to Buffalo at 06z followed by OTS at 18z, all in a day. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

5 minutes ago, Freezing Drizzle said:

Hmmm. Fwiw, on the 12"+ snowstorm list for CPK (28 total), only one is in late February, February 25-26, 2010.

I'm not sure where you're getting that list from but that's not even close. 

[mob1]

6 minutes ago, Freezing Drizzle said:

Hmmm. Fwiw, on the 12"+ snowstorm list for CPK (28 total), only one is in late February, February 25-26, 2010.

But they had 4 in March 

[Freezing Drizzle]

5 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I'm not sure where you're getting that list from but that's not even close. 

www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/BiggestSnowstorms.pdf

In the period of late February.

 

[dseagull]

9 minutes ago, Freezing Drizzle said:

Hmmm. Fwiw, on the 12"+ snowstorm list for CPK (28 total), only one is in late February, February 25-26, 2010.

Climo, should always remain heavily weighted when in a sub-optimal setup... as you point out.

Still, enjoyable to track.  Offers an opportunity to find biases in models, year over year.   

Wouldn't surprise me to see decent pattern-changing coastal as winter winds down, but didn't expect to see it so soon. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

2 minutes ago, Freezing Drizzle said:

www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/BiggestSnowstorms.pdf

In late the period of late February.

 

There's 39 total, 12 inch or greater storms in Central Park and 8 from Mid February (15th) through March. The most recent is is Feb 25 2010 20.9 inches that you noted, Feb 19, 1979 12.7 inches, Feb 20, 1921 12.5 inches and 5 in March. Not as many as I thought there would be so it does show how difficult it is for the City to get a blockbuster this time of year.

[[email protected]]

37 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Been playing kick the can since 1/25.    Still early and we weren't going to be in the bullseye 5 days straight...but the worrying thing is that most of these storms have been wide right this year.  OP euro not having anything is concerning...  See what happens tomorrow...

He shanked it!

[WeatherGeek2025]

 

[Irish]

19 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

 

So, all but 1 seem solid to great. 

[Stormlover74]

0 for 1

[SACRUS]

 

2/18 00Z ICON goes the wrong way

 

Total QPF

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

0 for 1

Not a good start. 

[MJO812]

Wow is the euro going to win here after being alone ? Its right when we dont want it to be right but when it shows something good its wrong.

 

Cant trust these models past 5 days. Icon now has nothing up here.

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Wow is the euro going to win here after being alone ? Its right when we dont want it to be right but when it shows something good its wrong.

 

Cant trust these models past 5 days. Icon now has nothing up here.

They just love to tease us 5 or 6 days out