February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: Buckle Up!

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea lol. If wouldn't surprise me at all if the ridge connection happens for like... 3 days... before a trough digs right back in. I see nothing about this pattern that says it's going to morph into extended warmth/shutout. 

Yep, both ai and nwp euro ens show brief connection then right back to cold. We don’t even go AN that much on the “warmest” day, and 11-15 day forecasts have still been biased too warm

[frd]

Crack 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[frd]

 

 

[GreyHat]

50 minutes ago, das said:

It would have to be a prodigious rainer with high DP's.  0.50" rain at 37ºF will hardly make a dent in the glacier above and below the ground.

Yeah, but could cause severe flooding for people's basement and streams.

[Blizzard of 93]

12z EPS & AI EPS both end with good looks on day 15.

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

12z EPS & AI EPS both end with good looks on day 15.

And that’s not a suppressive look like we have now. Still a pna ridge but not so tall that it pushes storms so far south

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

12z EPS & AI EPS both end with good looks on day 15.

AIFS is money. Wow!

[Blizzard of 93]

The latest Euro Weeklies today show the workable pattern continuing in week 3 and 4 through the end of February.

[psuhoffman]

Just sayin 

Day 15 EPS

snowiest February’s of the last 50 years 

and yes the pac is different because almost all those examples were ninos and a central pac ridge makes it unlikely to get blocking , that loading pattern actually correlates with a +AO. But we do have the blocking. What matters most is the N American long wave pattern is identical  

[clskinsfan]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Just sayin 

Day 15 EPS

snowiest February’s of the last 50 years 

and yes the pac is different because almost all those examples were ninos and a central pac ridge makes it unlikely to get blocking , that loading pattern actually correlates with a +AO. But we do have the blocking. What matters most is the N American long wave pattern is identical  

Problem is that pac will just blast us with warm upper levels. And this amazing arctic air will be wated again. One of the best arctic outbreaks in my 57 years of life is going to end up completely wasted. Rough hobby man. 

Edit: And another reason I am looking forward to a Nino next year. Yes we will get tainted constantly. But we will be wet. Just need to time up some cold air and we get the goods. I am done tracking Nina winters. They are a clownshow in the Mid Atlantic. We either get a record breaking storm. Or sit here at sunny and 19 degrees while the Carolinas get smashed. 

[psuhoffman]

Feb 2006 and March 2018 prove if you have blocking the central pac isnt as important. The issue is it’s rare to get extreme blocking in that pacific pattern. Usually that pacific is destructive to blocking. But this year it doesn’t seem to matter. I’ll take the rare win. 

[Nomz]

I like your funny words magic man

[clskinsfan]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Feb 2006 and March 2018 prove if you have blocking the central pac isnt as important. The issue is it’s rare to get extreme blocking in that pacific pattern. Usually that pacific is destructive to blocking. But this year it doesn’t seem to matter. I’ll take the rare win. 

You will take the rare win until it isn't a win because it is rare. Done with rare. Time to get blasted with Nino precip and see what happens. I'd bet a fortune we do way better.