February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post

[Jebman]

Just now, anotherman said:

Jebman has been brainwashed by Chuck?

Yep. MK Ultra's more like it. Totally fragmented personality, now.  I'm gonnabe really useful later...

[JenkinsJinkies]

47 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Euro ai has a decent amount of rain for us through the end of its run.  Maybe we can starting denting the drought on the way towards spring. 

If the Niña is on the way out and the floodgates finally open this time the drought will be gone by May.

[stormy]

18 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

If the Niña is on the way out and the floodgates finally open this time the drought will be gone by May.

I hope your right!!! 

 If the long-term pattern persists into the spring, the lawn mowers can be retired, water use restrictions will be common and many folks will suffer a loss of water in private wells. The water table has dropped 22 ft. since June in Augusta County. 

[psuhoffman]

9 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

End of the 0z Euro is warming up really good in the Midwest. Run it forward a few days and we might be talking about 70s. 

117hr Euro is 57F in DCA

186hr Euro is 67F in DCA

288hr Euro is 64F in DCA

354hr Euro is 63F in DCA

4 separate fronts.. -PNA pattern

Model run is probably too extreme, but it does highlight a warmer pattern coming up. 

EVERYONE knows it's going to be warmer... but the PNA is the only thing unfavorable.  The AO/NAO/WPO are all decent.  And late Feb and March the PNA is not as significant as it is earlier in winter.  We are trying to find opportunities to sneak a snowstorm in between the warm periods, which is very doable and has happened MANY times before in a -PNA late in the season.  We almost did this weekend...if the wave was SLIGHTLY more amplified NW of 95 would be getting some snow Sunday in an otherwise warm period.  

[bncho]

The GFS was really close to something for the 24th, if NS had phased quicker it'd have turned neg tilt quicker and probably have been an HECS

it also kinda looks like the Feb 2025 debacle, similar setup, same time of year, but i'd definitely run that look back

[psuhoffman]

Just remember as we head into the final 1/3 of the snow season these helpful rules about what to expect when utilizing our guidance, just follow the chart

If the GFS shows snow: It's not going to snow

If the GGEM shows snow:  It's not going to snow but you can raise one eyebrow

If the Euro shows snow: It's not going to snow but you'll be tired from staying up until 1am

If they all show snow: It's still not going to snow but it's going to hurt a lot more when it doesn't.  

[bncho]

@Heisy there's a stationary 980-990 bomb for your timeframe

[bncho]

MECS/borderline HECS on the Euro AI. Subtract about 2-5" for anywhere that is DC and NW due to the 2/15 event. 

[psuhoffman]

AIFS has been really interested in Feb 24. I’m calling it the @Maestrobjwastorm 

[Amped]

26 minutes ago, bncho said:

@Heisy there's a stationary 980-990 bomb for your timeframe

It stalls near Salisbury for like 30 hrs.

[psuhoffman]

Can we get the seasonal trend here?  Or do waves only trend south when we need them them to trend north???  Asking for a friend. 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

AIFS has been really interested in Feb 24. I’m calling it the @Maestrobjwastorm 

Listen if that happens I will own ALLLLLLL of it and take my shots with little complaint, hahaha

BUT if we are still tracking this by Wed and then it goes poof I'm just gonna sit here giving y'all side eye 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Listen if that happens I will own ALLLLLLL of it and take my shots with little complaint, hahaha

 Baja blast, avocado vortex, and now this. This one needs to happen or your LLC is in serious jeopardy.

[CAPE]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

AIFS has been really interested in Feb 24. I’m calling it the @Maestrobjwastorm 

There is a bit of a signal on the AIFS ENS. Mostly north but still way out there obviously.

[Weather Will]

I keep telling you all, I rescheduled my appointment that got canceled from snowcrete to the 24th.  It will happen....

[snowfan]

Not clean but that was quite the active HH GFS.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

March starts off with +EPO, per 18z GEFS. We could talking about 50s and 60s if this verifies:

12z EPS also had a similar Pacific pattern

Does anyone know what our snowfall stats for February 2018-2026?  2016-2026?

[Steve25]

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

March starts off with +EPO, per 18z GEFS. We could talking about 50s and 60s if this verifies:

12z EPS also had a similar Pacific pattern

Does anyone know what our snowfall stats for February 2018-2026?  2016-2026?

Since 2016 in February, BWI has had less than an inch four times. Between 1-3 inches three times. Then the others were 3.8, 5, and 6.1. 
 

Just for good measure since 2016 in March, BWI has went 2.3, 2.5, 6.7, 2.7, 0, 0, 0.4, trace, trace, trace. 
 

So yeah since 2016 our February and March finishes to winter have been atrocious. 

[psuhoffman]

5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

March starts off with +EPO, per 18z GEFS. We could talking about 50s and 60s if this verifies:

12z EPS also had a similar Pacific pattern

Does anyone know what our snowfall stats for February 2018-2026?  2016-2026?

50s is normal in March. That won’t be a cold pattern but there is enough decent in other areas we could get a wave to track under us if it times up with a transient 50/50 feature. You only seem to pay attention to the pacific and ignore other factors. But we’re getting that this weekend and its rain so maybe we can’t snow anymore in hostile pac regimes and the last 10 years is just what is normal now.  

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

50s is normal in March. That won’t be a cold pattern but there is enough decent in other areas we could get a wave to track under us if it times up with a transient 50/50 feature. You only seem to pay attention to the pacific and ignore other factors. But we’re getting that this weekend and its rain so maybe we can’t snow anymore in hostile pac regimes and the last 10 years is just what is normal now.  

Wait is this is a logbook fail incoming? Now see I thought this weekend was rain because the storm got here too late and the cold air had already escaped (and that if it were 12-24 hours sooner it would've been snowier) But you're saying this woulda worked before...

Man I still don't get how the switch just flipped so quickly like that. This kind of setup work between 2010 & 2015? I hope this is a PDO issue and not the other.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just because I've been tracking it, 00z Euro is 64F for DCA 2-19, and 66F 2-20. 0z eps peaks 62F on 2-19. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I hope this is a PDO issue and not the other.

It's a PNA/EPO issue, which I guess you could say is a PDO issue. We just had one of our coldest mid-Winter stretches on record... AGW stuff right now is just complaining. 

Feb/March has been the same anomaly in the Pacific for 9 straight years. Let's figure out why! 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

16 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

EVERYONE knows it's going to be warmer... but the PNA is the only thing unfavorable.  The AO/NAO/WPO are all decent.  And late Feb and March the PNA is not as significant as it is earlier in winter.  We are trying to find opportunities to sneak a snowstorm in between the warm periods, which is very doable and has happened MANY times before in a -PNA late in the season.  We almost did this weekend...if the wave was SLIGHTLY more amplified NW of 95 would be getting some snow Sunday in an otherwise warm period.  

PNA has a NAO correlation in late Feb/March, so it seems more neutralized than it really is if there is no NAO help. 

[stormy]

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It's a PNA/EPO issue, which I guess you could say is a PDO issue. We just had one of our coldest mid-Winter stretches on record... AGW stuff right now is just complaining. 

Feb/March has been the same anomaly in the Pacific for 9 straight years. Let's figure out why! 

Chuck:  The CPC agrees with you.  The PDO is a significant contributing issue to the pattern.

They issued the latest 3 - 4 week outlook yesterday for Feb. 28 - Mar. 13.  This predicts warmer than normal and drier than normal for eastern portions of our region with normal precip. for western portions.

[psuhoffman]

6 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Wait is this is a logbook fail incoming? Now see I thought this weekend was rain because the storm got here too late and the cold air had already escaped (and that if it were 12-24 hours sooner it would've been snowier) But you're saying this woulda worked before...

Man I still don't get how the switch just flipped so quickly like that. This kind of setup work between 2010 & 2015? I hope this is a PDO issue and not the other.

The surface has warmed on average 2f since 1970  now look at the sounding for Baltimore during the rain and tell me if it makes a difference!!!!

 

its 35 at the surface and all layers are below freezing except the lowest 1000 feet. You think cooling it 2f wouldnt help?  Now it’s 33 and only above freezing a very tiny bit. It can snow at 33!  It would have still been marginal but…more likely to tip snow v rain. 
 

Now what about NW of 95. Look at the sounding for Reisterstown for example. It’s 33-34 in the boundary during the rain. What would 2f colder mean for them?  
 

Im tired of this honestly. Sooooo much of our snow came right at or near 32 in the last. It’s ridiculous to claim increasing temps 2f since 1970 or worse 3f since 1950 hasn’t fundamentally hurt our snowfall in a significant way. And the numbers show it. Our snowfall has decreased. There is no logical retort to this.

And I’m not talking about human influence. I don’t care. Not having that debate. If you want to claim it’s not human fine. That’s political we don’t have to debate that. But it is warmer. That’s a fact. That’s not political. And it’s asinine to claim somehow it’s warmer but not hurting our snow in marginal temp situations like this. 

[psuhoffman]

5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It's a PNA/EPO issue, which I guess you could say is a PDO issue. We just had one of our coldest mid-Winter stretches on record... AGW stuff right now is just complaining. 

Feb/March has been the same anomaly in the Pacific for 9 straight years. Let's figure out why! 

For the last time Chuck we used to be able to get snow in hostile pac regimes. 
 

look at this sounding for Westminster while it’s raining.  It’s 33-34 in the boundary layer. Cold enough everywhere else. The boundary has warmed 2f since 1970. 

So explain to me how is the fact it’s 2f warmer not hurting our snow chances tomorrow when it’s 2f too warm?  I’m listening. Explain the math to me. 

[dailylurker]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The surface has warmed on average 2f since 1970  now look at the sounding for Baltimore during the rain and tell me if it makes a difference!!!!

 

its 35 at the surface and all layers are below freezing except the lowest 1000 feet. You think cooling it 2f wouldnt help?  Now it’s 33 and only above freezing a very tiny bit. It can snow at 33!  It would have still been marginal but…more likely to tip snow v rain. 
 

Now what about NW of 95. Look at the sounding for Reisterstown for example. It’s 33-34 in the boundary during the rain. What would 2f colder mean for them?  
 

Im tired of this honestly. Sooooo much of our snow came right at or near 32 in the last. It’s ridiculous to claim increasing temps 2f since 1970 or worse 3f since 1950 hasn’t fundamentally hurt our snowfall in a significant way. And the numbers show it. Our snowfall has decreased. There is no logical retort to this.

And I’m not talking about human influence. I don’t care. Not having that debate. If you want to claim it’s not human fine. That’s political we don’t have to debate that. But it is warmer. That’s a fact. That’s not political. And it’s asinine to claim somehow it’s warmer but not hurting our snow in marginal temp situations like this. 

I'm moving to a place that will benefit from a couple degree warmer climo. Warmer lake, bigger snows. You'll have to come up. We'll sit outside in the snow and discuss the shitty climo down here lol

[mitchnick]

Seems like it's been 10 years since we had outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) in the right spot just east of the Dateline. We'll, fwiw, the Euro weeklies say just that. I'd prefer it a touch further east, but this darn close to perfect if memory serves. It should last through the end of the month. Maybe there's a little hope for a score with this, or so I hope. With the burgeoning Niño, maybe we can see this next winter as a fixture? Here's a link to an explanation if you're interested. 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/mofc_multi_mjo_family_time_longitudes?base_time=202602100000&filter=no&parameter=olr

[SnowenOutThere]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

debate. If you want to claim it’s not human fine. That’s political we don’t have to debate that.

It really isn’t. It’s just math. The math equation states there are three factors which influence earths surface temperature. 1. Solar forcing (sunspots vary it by .001% so sure .001% of our warming is natural best case) 2. Albedo 3. Atmospheric absorption. Now, only molecules which undergo a vibrational transformation when impacted with solar radiation of a certain wavelength are greenhouse gasses (hence why nitrogen or oxygen in their own don’t increase heat). Can you guess those molecules? CO2, methane, cfcs, h20, etc. now what molecules do we pump into the atmosphere? It’s not political. 

[SnowenOutThere]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

For the last time Chuck we used to be able to get snow in hostile pac regimes. 
 

look at this sounding for Westminster while it’s raining.  It’s 33-34 in the boundary layer. Cold enough everywhere else. The boundary has warmed 2f since 1970. 

So explain to me how is the fact it’s 2f warmer not hurting our snow chances tomorrow when it’s 2f too warm?  I’m listening. Explain the math to me. 

Quick question for you but are the models getting the high peaks of our mountains correct and if so why aren’t they snowing? Hypothetically they should be 6-8 degrees cooler than surrounding valleys and snow but they don’t seem to show that