February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, 87storms said:

Definitely not the last shot by seasonal perspective, but I find March to be truly overrated in the snow dept. Really can’t rely on that around here. But it is kinda weird how we don’t get much snow it seems in late February…it’s kinda like our late December void.

Depends on expectations... if you want some 2 week stretch of deep winter with snowcover...no but how often do we get that even in mid winter?  not much.  But we've had several March's recently that had significant snowfall, especially the further NW of 95 you go.  

2005 we had a 4-8" storm across the area the first week of March

2009 there was a storm early March that some places SE of 95 got 10", up here I got about 6"

2013 places NW of 95 got a 6-10" snow early march

2014: 3 snow events...2 of them were pretty significant especially for VA

2015: a 6-12" snowfall across the area in early March

2017: the sleet storm 2-3" of sleet across much of the area, had about 8" up here

2018: a couple minor 1-2" snows and then the 4-8" storm March 20th, had 15" up here

2019: not sure what baltimore had but I got 3 snow events that totaled about 10" up here the first week of March.  

2022: I got a 6" snowstorm in March, can't remember what Baltimore area had but it might have missed there

That seems to be a pretty decent hit rate considering no one period has a ton of snow because our climo sucks!  But early march is as good as any period except maybe Jan 20-Feb 10th.  Yea that is our golden window...but outside that...the first 10 days of March are as good as say anytime before or after Jan 20-Feb10th imo for just getting snow.  

I think some let the fact the winter is about to end and it's depressing affect it.  They get to the point where they just want to move on because they are frustrated.  

[Yeoman]

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think it's simply a misunderstanding and always has been.  I always knew that anything you look at 10-15 days away is very volatile, likely to change some, and details are impossible to glean.  But knowing something and behaving accordingly are two different things!  When there was nothing to look at within 5 days I would often waste too much time wanting something at day 10 to mean more than it does.  Now... I do something else.  Invest my time more wisely.  

However, I do still think there is value in long range forecasting.  Look at this PD threat.  It's not likely to end up snow BUT its close and the idea of this possible storm was hinted at from day 15 on.  Thats valuable.  We saw this general setup if you knew how to look at the data and analyze what it was hinting at.  The specifics that will determine whether we actually get snow...the EXACT track of the storm and exactly how cold it is...won't be known until its closer...even now it's unknown...but the general setup was picked out way in advance.  We saw the snow/ice storm we got Jan 25 from 2 weeks out...the general threat of it anyways.  The details weren't known until later.  So it depends what your expectations are.  IF you expect to see details (like being able to make a specific forecast and saying we're going to get 6" of snow) from 10-15 days away then no...its not useful at all for that.  But can the long range guidance suggest possible storm threats from that range yes...as long as it's understood it's just a general threat window not a specific forecast.  

Speaking of investing your time wisely, all of those words boil down to this: Long-range forecasting is valuable for identifying threat windows in advance, but it’s useless for details, making you dumb to expect day 10+ guidance to behave like a near-term forecast. 

[WEATHER53]

22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think it's simply a misunderstanding and always has been.  I always knew that anything you look at 10-15 days away is very volatile, likely to change some, and details are impossible to glean.  But knowing something and behaving accordingly are two different things!  When there was nothing to look at within 5 days I would often waste too much time wanting something at day 10 to mean more than it does.  Now... I do something else.  Invest my time more wisely.  

However, I do still think there is value in long range forecasting.  Look at this PD threat.  It's not likely to end up snow BUT its close and the idea of this possible storm was hinted at from day 15 on.  Thats valuable.  We saw this general setup if you knew how to look at the data and analyze what it was hinting at.  The specifics that will determine whether we actually get snow...the EXACT track of the storm and exactly how cold it is...won't be known until its closer...even now it's unknown...but the general setup was picked out way in advance.  We saw the snow/ice storm we got Jan 25 from 2 weeks out...the general threat of it anyways.  The details weren't known until later.  So it depends what your expectations are.  IF you expect to see details (like being able to make a specific forecast and saying we're going to get 6" of snow) from 10-15 days away then no...its not useful at all for that.  But can the long range guidance suggest possible storm threats from that range yes...as long as it's understood it's just a general threat window not a specific forecast.  

Thanks. I would say if things really can’t be forecasted with some normal scientific  precision standards beyond X number  of days then why do it?

I know why  but it brings out the protect the supply chest thumpers of all sorts. It’s because 268 hour snow monsters Sell.  There is  a myth that NOAA/NWS are “above all that” 

Do what can be done and take a broader view approach. That one set of graphs where lines are running everywhere is like reading the human genome chart 

Weather forecasting needs new blood with new ideas. 

[psuhoffman]

The last week of Feb thing has been an anomaly for sure, but its mostly recent.  Things run in cycles, and a lot of it is just random chance...like getting 5 heads in a row if you flip a coin enough times.  

Further back we had plenty of significant snowstorms the last week of February...off the top of my head...

2015 we got that storm that was 6-12" across Maryland and 3-6" in VA the last week of Feb

2007: there was a 4-6" storm after the V-day ice storm the last week of Feb

2005: there was a 4-8" storm the last few days of Feb 

2003: there was a 3-6" snow the last week of Feb after the PD2 storm

1993: There were two storms across MD the last week of Feb, Baltimore had about 3" from both but NW of 95 got like 4-6" from both storms.  They were both snow to sleet storms

1987: that wet snow bomb I love so much was the last week of Feb

1986: there were two storms back to back in late Feb combined it was like 5-7"

further back I know there was a big snowstorm the end of Feb 1966, I think it was like 8-12" across Maryland 

Recently somehow it hasn't snowed that week but we've had some big snowstorms just a few days before and after that week...and in the past it has snowed that week...so its just a fluke of random chance.  The fact that we haven't had much snow in general at all anytime lately makes it easier for it to happen.  

[snowfan]

Suns out, guns out. Get those lawnmowers tuned up. Crocus bloom watch.

 

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Thanks. I would say if things really can’t be forecasted with some normal scientific  precision standards beyond X number  of days then why do it?

I know why  but it brings out the protect the supply chest thumpers of all sorts. It’s because 268 hour snow monsters Sell.  There is  a myth that NOAA/NWS are “above all that” 

Do what can be done and take a broader view approach. That one set of graphs where lines are running everywhere is like reading the human genome chart 

Weather forecasting needs new blood with new ideas. 

I agree with some of this.  But to be fair NWS doesn't issue 10-15 day forecasts.  They issue general guidance like "likely to be above normal, or above or below normal precip"  it's private sector agencies and people issuing daily specific forecasts at those ranges and yes its just to get hits and publicity not to make good forecasts.  

I like tracking threat windows.  SO it's wroth it to me to glance at long range stuff once in a while to identify if there are any legit opportunities coming.  But if you need to have a detailed forecast like "today it's going to 34 degrees with 3-5" of snow"  no that kind of thing can't be made outside a few days.  That isn't what looking at the long range is useful for.  And if someone doesn't find it useful or worth their time to simply identify general pattern trends...they don't have to look.  No one is forcing anyone to waste their time looking at day 15 ensemble means.  lol 

[winter_warlock]

2 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Suns out, guns out. Get those lawnmowers tuned up. Crocus bloom watch.

 

Why get the lawnmower tuned up.. it's only February.. It's gonna get cold again and grass won't even grow till later in March lol   a lil warm up and people think springs coming lol

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

Speaking of investing your time wisely, all of those words boil down to this: Long-range forecasting is valuable for identifying threat windows in advance, but it’s useless for details, making you dumb to expect day 10+ guidance to behave like a near-term forecast. 

What's wrong with saying something in a way that's less insulting? 

[bncho]

It has been done.

 

[mappy]

6 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Suns out, guns out. Get those lawnmowers tuned up. Crocus bloom watch.

 

If it’s not gonna snow then it can be warm. 

[TSSN+]

6 minutes ago, mappy said:

If it’s not gonna snow then it can be warm. 

Eskimo Joe says he would prefer it be -30 

[Maestrobjwa]

46 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

You are constantly harping on this. Sure, the overwhelming majority of MECS and HECS have occurred before Feb 20th but to say there been little in the way of any snow during the last 1/3 of February is simply not true. Your own words are "very, very few snowfalls of any kind those two weeks". You couldn't be more wrong and I'm not trying to be nasty. Please provide data or do some research before making such a bold statement. I'm only calling you out on this because you make reference to it quite often. Just take the last 40 years. 1986,1987,1993,2003,2005,2007,2014,2015,2021 all saw events and some of those years were quite snowy periods. There were many years with close misses that still yielded some snow for certain parts of the region or had significant storms the first few day of March such as 1984,1994,1996,1999,2009,2011,2017 and 2019. My set of years are based from Feb 20th through March 1st. If you include the full last 2 week of February like you did in your post then your position worsens greatly. 2013 got a little snowy for NW and of course the epic fail the first week in March. This isn't even including countless C-2/3 inch events not even worth mentioning.

Let me clarify by saying that when I say it doesn't happen often I'm talking primarily of snows that are warning-level (5"+ And I'm only speaking of the cities (i.e. BWI) not so much N&W. Sorry I didn't clarify that part.

Now admittedly...what I don't know how to do is how to isolate Feb 20th-28th and last week of December to see just what fell each year. What's the best way to do that? I'm more than willing to take time to put the stats together I just don't know how. I need to see how many snowfalls over 5" we've gotten the last week of December and the last week of February AT BWI.

And btw I'm not at all talking about March. We got 5" there several years ago.

[Maestrobjwa]

21 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Suns out, guns out. Get those lawnmowers tuned up. Crocus bloom watch.

 

Turrible. Just turrible.

[Maestrobjwa]

19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

What's wrong with saying something in a way that's less insulting? 

I think a few people struggle with that on this board. But that's the nature of online debate and disagreement....

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Let me clarify by saying that when I say it doesn't happen often I'm talking primarily of snows that are warning-level (5"+ And I'm only speaking of the cities (i.e. BWI) not so much N&W. I can't remember but maybe a couple of hits over the last 30 years or so.

Now admittedly...what I don't know how to do is how to isolate Feb 20th-28th and last week of December to see just what fell each year. What's the best way to do that? I'm more than willing to take time to put the stats together I just don't know how. I need to see how many snowfalls over 5" we've gotten the last week of December and the last week of February AT BWI.

And btw I'm not at all talking about March. We got 5" there several years ago.

dude do you realize how rare getting a 5" plus snowstorm is on any particular week?  How often in the last 20 years have we had a 5" snowstorm ANY week?  

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

dude do you realize how rare getting a 5" plus snowstorm is on any particular week?  How often in the last 20 years have we had a 5" snowstorm ANY week?  

Yeah I know. I'm just saying...this weeks feel like worse luck than other weeks call it a slight superstition or whatever. Like sports when a team just doesn't play well in a particular situation over decades.

It's just like the "weekend rule"...snows more on the weekends than it does during the week!

[Ruin]

2 months of cold 1 real snow storm lol

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah I know. I'm just saying...some weeks feel like worse luck than other weeks call it a slight superstition or whatever. Like sports when a team just doesn't play well in a particular situation over decades. It's just like the weekend rule...snows more on the weekends than it does during the week!

In the last 20 years we had a 5" snowstorm the last week of Feb twice.  That is definitely NOT our best week...but there are other weeks during winter where we've had only 1 or NONE...so why is it that week you are obsessed with?  

[TSSN+]

9 minutes ago, Ruin said:

2 months of cold 1 real snow storm lol

I mean not like it’s precipitated much at all the last 3+ months. 

[WEATHER53]

39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

What's wrong with saying something in a way that's less insulting? 

He thinks he’s cute when doing it plus already an identified back  stabber 

[WEATHER53]

43 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I agree with some of this.  But to be fair NWS doesn't issue 10-15 day forecasts.  They issue general guidance like "likely to be above normal, or above or below normal precip"  it's private sector agencies and people issuing daily specific forecasts at those ranges and yes its just to get hits and publicity not to make good forecasts.  

I like tracking threat windows.  SO it's wroth it to me to glance at long range stuff once in a while to identify if there are any legit opportunities coming.  But if you need to have a detailed forecast like "today it's going to 34 degrees with 3-5" of snow"  no that kind of thing can't be made outside a few days.  That isn't what looking at the long range is useful for.  And if someone doesn't find it useful or worth their time to simply identify general pattern trends...they don't have to look.  No one is forcing anyone to waste their time looking at day 15 ensemble means.  lol 

I know that many do enjoy the 10+ 
I don’t think it’s actual “tracking” because it’s mostly a mirage .  So many times it’s just herky  jerky every 6 hours and then zip and rarely a solid hit that the”agony of  defeat” wiped away the thrills of victory many years ago 

[stormy]

57 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Eskimo Joe says he would prefer it be -30 

He should move to Cut Bank,  Montana.   Then, once in a while.......

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

45 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

In the last 20 years we had a 5" snowstorm the last week of Feb twice.  That is definitely NOT our best week...but there are other weeks during winter where we've had only 1 or NONE...so why is it that week you are obsessed with?  

Agree.  I can recall several advisory to warning-level snows between late February and mid-March, it's really not all that rare of a thing relatively speaking.  I know there are those who tend to thumb their nose at later season snow events but we've had a decent number.  And in not the greatest setups, too.

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Agree.  I can recall several advisory to warning-level snows between late February and mid-March, it's really not all that rare of a thing relatively speaking.  I know there are those who tend to thumb their nose at later season snow events but we've had a decent number.  And in not the greatest setups, too.

I'll just note I'm just talking the last week of Feb not March. March snow is annoying to track but it most certainly happens.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

57 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

It's just like the "weekend rule"...snows more on the weekends than it does during the week!

I think the "weekend rule" stuff is over-stated, and/or stated with some jest.  If one considers Friday as essentially nearly the weekend and considers that many events spill over into another day (e.g., starts later Friday, goes into or through Saturday), you're talking nearly half the week right there.  So yeah, decent chance a storm will occur then.  Add in Monday holidays in the winter (MLK Day, Pres Day) and that's even more "weekend" relatively speaking.  Plus, perception bias in part, one tends to perhaps recall events that occur on a weekend more.

[Benjamn3]

I recall in my area, Bob Chill may recall as well, we got about 8inches of snow March 30th 2003. Week before it had been in the 70s. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah I know. I'm just saying...this weeks feel like worse luck than other weeks call it a slight superstition or whatever. Like sports when a team just doesn't play well in a particular situation over decades.

Well, for the Cleveland Browns it's not superstition over the past couple of decades.  They just suck and don't play well no matter what the situation, the opponent, or time of year!!! 

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

2019: not sure what baltimore had but I got 3 snow events that totaled about 10" up here the first week of March.  

2022: I got a 6" snowstorm in March, can't remember what Baltimore area had but it might have missed there

2018 was the last time metro Baltimore had March snow that was more than a flurry.

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, Benjamn3 said:

I recall in my area, Bob Chill may recall as well, we got about 8inches of snow March 30th 2003. Week before it had been in the 70s. 

This is how we know things are winding down here when we talk about the one off amazing situations.  The April snows…1993…the great St Paddy’s day blizzard of 1755…the white Easter of 1215 just after the Magna Carta signing Meanwhile people in Maine are like ok folks first quarter is over let’s do this.  

[mitchnick]

I haven't bothered to look when the threat is, and maybe it's already been mentioned, but something after this weekend made the Eps and Geps snowfall maps jump today.