Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/25 - 1/26

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

No it doesnt. Mid layer warmth.

Primary hangs around longer 

Yikes

The 700 and 850 lows track over Lake Erie. Guaranteed we will mix with that and we have to hope the precip is largely over by then. 

[winterwarlock]

really a kick in the balls verbatim from the nam east of the Garden State Parkway

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

The 700 and 850 lows track over Lake Erie. Guaranteed we will mix with that and we have to hope the precip is largely over by then. 

It will be. We are still going to see a big snowfall.

[Winterweatherlover]

NAM seems kind of dry too compared to other models.

[WeatherGeek2025]

i'd go with hrrr once in range. Nam sucks

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

NAM seems kind of dry too compared to other models.

No. Its over an inch of liquid

[SnoSki14]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i'd go with hrrr once in range. Nam sucks

Agreed Nam is trash beyond 48hrs 

Just now, Krs4Lfe said:

The path of least resistance is clear here. I believe this will trend north and warmer with more sleet leading up to the day of the event. The GFS is wrong. This is a big SWFE. We will all mix and lots of it 

Ok bye 

[Mo Snow]

NAM 12k has sleet all the way to Allentown?

[winterwarlock]

2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

NAM seems kind of dry too compared to other models.

its spits out 1.3 for central jersey north and 1.7 extreme coast south jersey

[RedSky]

Just now, Mo Snow said:

NAM 12k has sleet all the way to Allentown?

Sleet to Mt Pocono 

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It will be. We are still going to see a big snowfall.

That seems to be nws is thinking. 

[SACRUS]

00z Total QPF / Snow / Sleet
NYC

SREF:  1.3 /  (8.4)
NAM: 1.3 / (8.4)
RGEM: 1.4 / (8.6)
ICON: 1.3 / (7.5)
GFS AI AIGFS: 1.1 / ( 10)
GFS: 1.4 / (14.8)
GGEM: 1.5 / (8.2)
UKMET: 0.9 - 11 / (6 - 10)
GEFS: 1.4 / (14)
 

[chrisNJ]

Question for mets or anyone knowledgeable. Why does the NBM continue to show 12-18 inches area wide (even the ongoing 01z run)? What is this model “blending?”  Serious question. 

[RedSky]

Just now, chrisNJ said:

Question for mets or anyone knowledgeable. Why does the NBM continue to show 12-18 inches area wide (even the ongoing 01z run)? What is this model “blending?”  Serious question. 

Tequila

[Prue11]

1 minute ago, chrisNJ said:

Question for mets or anyone knowledgeable. Why does the NBM continue to show 12-18 inches area wide (even the ongoing 01z run)? What is this model “blending?”  Serious question. 

https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/mdl/nbm

 

read that

[SnoSki14]

Nam is my worst case. 6" of snow + 2-3" of sleet on top is nightmare fuel. 

[MANDA]

11 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The 700 and 850 lows track over Lake Erie. Guaranteed we will mix with that and we have to hope the precip is largely over by then. 

If that is indeed the track they take, I need to see rest of 00Z guidance before I lean that way,  then 100% we're going over to sleet for a large part of this sub forum. You can't avoid mid level warming with 700/850 lows to Lake Erie.  This is where we were at at 9:00 this morning.  The 12Z guidance and 18Z guidance for the most part backed away from that, except for the CMC stuff.  Let's see what the rest of the 00Z guidance has to say.

[Winterweatherlover]

5 minutes ago, Mo Snow said:

NAM 12k has sleet all the way to Allentown?

The sleet is pretty minimal north of central NJ.

[WeatherGeek2025]

3 minutes ago, chrisNJ said:

Question for mets or anyone knowledgeable. Why does the NBM continue to show 12-18 inches area wide (even the ongoing 01z run)? What is this model “blending?”  Serious question. 

cause it's counting the sleet as snow

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, MANDA said:

If that is indeed the track they take, I need to see rest of 00Z guidance before I lean that way,  then 100% we're going over to sleet for most of this forum.  This is where we were at at 9:00 this morning.  The 12Z guidance and 18Z guidance for the most part backed away from that, except for the CMC stuff.  Let's see what the rest of the 00Z guidance has to say.

It's the NAM of course but to avoid sleet we need those lows tracking well south of there. 

[Nibor]

8 minutes ago, Mo Snow said:

NAM 12k has sleet all the way to Allentown?

Weatherbell's own graphics don't go as high as the output on this. 3 is the limit. Max is 6.2

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

It's the NAM of course but to avoid sleet we need those lows tracking well south of there. 

Nam is useless after 48 hrs so not worried. 

[Metasequoia]

6 to 10 inches of snow topped with a couple inches of sleet, followed by days below freezing... sounds good to me.

[Astoriaweather]

If the GFS holds tonight, I won't worry about the NAM until this time tomorrow.  Tomer on Twitter thinks its in the process of folding. But if it doesn't fold tonight, and instead decides to fold tomorrow, etc, or never does,  it will be a pretty glaring and major error for the model and raise real questions about its relevancy going forward. 

https://x.com/burgwx/status/2014470490593886472?s=20

[SACRUS]

1/23 00z RGEM 





 

 

[Winterweatherlover]

I think it's ok to accept that it can both sleet and still be a significant snowstorm, both can be true.

[Nibor]

Just now, Astoriaweather said:

If the GFS holds tonight, I won't worry about the NAM until this time tomorrow.  Tomer on Twitter thinks its in the process of folding. But if it doesn't fold tonight, and instead decides to fold tomorrow, etc, it will be a pretty glaring and major error for the model and raise real questions about its relevancy going forward. 

https://x.com/burgwx/status/2014470490593886472?s=20

I feel like we've been saying this for a decade

[chrisNJ]

5 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

cause it's counting the sleet as snow

Well it has it’s own sleet output parameter so not sure. I a

 

8 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/mdl/nbm

 

read that

Even more shocking. Wtf are they blending besides cocktails?  I am just trying to learn. And it’s not just a sleet issue because they have a FRAM output. 

[Snowguy66]

it's too far out right now for the NAM.  Relax.  

[Santa Claus]

i’ll take the under on that qpf