WinterWolf Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: RRFS solid for everyone good 4-8” coming for all I believe.. Does that stand for Rapid Refresh Forecasting System? Is it any good? Says it’s not for official forecasting lol(experimental). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, WinterWolf said: Does that stand for Rapid Refresh Forecasting System? Is it any good? Says it’s not for official forecasting lol(experimental). Really Ridiculous Forecasting System 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 9 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: NAM was so off with today’s snow. Had this 3-6” band about 50-75 miles north probably still end up with 6 here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Yeah, that was a nice over performer today. Been a while since we had something like that. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Trend is your friend. Winters have been so bad that this storm would already make this winter better than the past few years. Southeast MA has been rough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, ineedsnow said: probably still end up with 6 here You guys looked like 3-5 at least anyways 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Love the disclaimer for the RRFS...lol The RRFS A is a prototype NOAA run and not for decision making. It will post as available, and outages may occur. More RRFS details are available here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You guys looked like 3-5 at least anyways Seem like w/ time, N&W of 495 is becoming the target max for Sunday. Compared to 24 hr ago when we were worried about if the pcpn shield would get any further N&W than TAN! Models are hurtin', global and mesoscale, recently. Can't recall so many issues in the short range! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, vortex95 said: Seem like w/ time, N&W of 495 is becoming the target max for Sunday. Compared to 24 hr ago when we were worried about if the pcpn shield would get any further N&W than TAN! Models are hurtin', global and mesoscale, recently. Can't recall so many issues in the short range! I feel ok where I am for now. I’m hoping for 4” of heavy wet snow which would be great vs fluff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 far to much model-clinging and wavering, and it's seemingly getting worse year to year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 We just don't know 436 FXUS61 KGYX 171825 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 125 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Confidence in the coastal plain seeing accumulating snow Sunday night is increasing as more model solutions trend slightly westward, but higher than usual uncertainty remains in totals at this time range. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah, that was a nice over performer today. Been a while since we had something like that. Yeah, local peeps on social media are all shocked. Almost every forecast was for sloppy 1”-3” here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3pm AFD from BOX Quote KEY MESSAGE 2...Coastal low passes just SE of the Benchmark, bringing 2-5 inches with localized areas of 6 inches, especially in SE MA and RI. An elongated shortwave trough stretching from the northern Great Lakes down into the Gulf Coast will spin up a coastal low offshore, passing just southeast of the benchmark. Guidance continues to come into Better agreement on track with this low, but remains spread on how far NW the QPF field extends. Guidance generally ticked up total QPF across the region with 1/2 to 3/4 inches across the Cape and Islands, and a 1/4 to 1/2 inch along and south of the I-95 corridor. How this translates into snowfall accumulation will depend heavily on temperatures and mid-level forcing. Temperatures during this event will be marginal, with temperatures staying near freezing inland and at or above freezing for the Cape and Islands. This will impact snow totals as snow will melt and compress as it falls. Even areas inland will see very wet and heavy snow. Even where temperatures are above freezing, still anticipating accumulations for temps between 32-35F as strong mid-level forcing will allow for precipitation to become heavy enough to drag down cooler air and remain as snow rather than turning to rain. The highest confidence in snow totals across the region is in SE MA and into RI, where strong mid-level forcing and temperatures near or below freezing will overlap. Snow totals in this area will range from 3-5 inches, with localized areas reaching 6 inches. While there will be good forcing over Nantucket and Block Island, temperatures will likely be too warm for significant accumulations, but a slushy inch remains possible. Across CT and into north-eastern MA, the mid- level forcing is not quite as strong, but lower temperatures will allow for 2-4 inches, with localized spots up to 5 inches. Uncertainty is highest across NW MA, where a lack of mid-level forcing and dry air will limit totals. Still could see 1-3 inches, but if the low moves closer to the benchmark, these totals could increase, and the advisory could be expanded NW. Timing this system out, A band of snow showers associated with the prefrontal wave moves into CT as early as 7 am, but most likely not arriving until after 10 am. Snow spreads north and east into the rest of the region after the lunch hour. Snow will initially start light with rates of under half an inch per hour. Heaviest snow rates arrive later in the afternoon and into the early evening, with rates between 1/2 inch and 1 inch per hour through 10 pm to midnight. Snow rates could exceed 1 to 1.5 inches per hour near the Cape and Far SE MA if temperatures are able to cool below freezing. Snow ends from west to east between 10 pm and 2 am, snow showers may linger into Monday morning. Breezy winds are expected Monday afternoon behind the system, but given the wet and heavy nature of the snow, we do not anticipate blowing snow impacts on Monday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think ideally whatever comes up tomorrow morning continues through the afternoon to keep temps down. Models are disagreeing with that. You would think with the Gulf of Mexico open you’d have good moisture though. We shall see. Speaking of the Gulf, radars down in Bama are lighting up way ahead of schedule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 20 minutes ago, vortex95 said: Seem like w/ time, N&W of 495 is becoming the target max for Sunday. Compared to 24 hr ago when we were worried about if the pcpn shield would get any further N&W than TAN! Models are hurtin', global and mesoscale, recently. Can't recall so many issues in the short range! How we pray 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 18z Reggie is west of 12z 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3-3.5 here. Pretty much just snizzle right now. Temp still 32F. Christmas card picture outside. Looking forward to more tomorrow night. It should hold for a while with the coming cold intrusions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 BOX stole my forecast 12 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 3pm AFD from BOX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I'm not quite feeling this one for more than 1-2" now. Temps are ick. interior SE mass should do ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Getting close to go time but what a crazy ride this week has been in modeling! And we still have enough uncertainty to worry about when and whether. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 RGEM looks good for 4-8” for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: RGEM looks good for 4-8” for many take the under from 10 to one. I’m hoping the over under is 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 38 minutes ago, dryslot said: Love the disclaimer for the RRFS...lol The RRFS A is a prototype NOAA run and not for decision making. It will post as available, and outages may occur. More RRFS details are available here. They should have that disclaimer on all models lately. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 38 minutes ago, dryslot said: Love the disclaimer for the RRFS...lol The RRFS A is a prototype NOAA run and not for decision making. It will post as available, and outages may occur. More RRFS details are available here. I don’t believe RRFS v1 is ever going into production. It’s based on FV3 which they found to be not great. There already is a second version of the RRFS v2 which will be based on MPAS which will likely end up the replacement for the NAM, NAM 3k, RAP, and HRRR… https://gsl.noaa.gov/research/predictions 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 9 minutes ago, dendrite said: Today definitely ended up more south. Mesos ftl. Is that Lucy running on to the field? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 What a sunset 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, vortex95 said: What's this rear weenie bonus convectivey-NORLUN type stuff at the end??? 12z had it as well. Nothing would surprise me given how odd this season is so far w/ local snow maxes! what's the sounding like at that time ... kind of has a norlun look to it but there's some cyclostrophic banded structure too so not entirely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 18 minutes ago, dendrite said: They should have that disclaimer on all models lately. fit's the NAM's NW bias ... but actually, that bias is more 36-60 hours so not sure in this case. hm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 16 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Is that Lucy running on to the field? Looks like she’s initialized into the PAC NW for right when the shortwaves come ashore. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Gfs looks drier and further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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