Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    18,484
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    RHiggins
    Newest Member
    RHiggins
    Joined

First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us

40/70 Benchmark

By 40/70 Benchmark,
in New England

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

kdxken
kdxken

Start a thread.  First Legit Storm Potential of the Season (we mean it this time)

ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

We need to lock Scooter into a padded room until we are 24 hours away from a big storm…once we’re confident it’s a hit, we’ll let him out. 

CoastalWx
CoastalWx

If AI delivers, I’ll give my degree to Nvidia and buy Jerry food and drinks at the next gtg.

Posted Images

vortex95

vortex95

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You guys looked like 3-5 at least anyways 

Seem like w/ time, N&W of 495 is becoming the target max for Sunday.  Compared to 24 hr ago when we were worried about if the pcpn shield would get any further N&W than TAN!  Models are hurtin', global and mesoscale, recently.  Can't recall so many issues in the short range!

  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, vortex95 said:

Seem like w/ time, N&W of 495 is becoming the target max for Sunday.  Compared to 24 hr ago when we were worried about if the pcpn shield would get any further N&W than TAN!  Models are hurtin', global and mesoscale, recently.  Can't recall so many issues in the short range!

I feel ok where I am for now. I’m hoping for 4” of heavy wet snow which would be great vs fluff. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

We just don't know 

436
FXUS61 KGYX 171825
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
125 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence in the coastal plain seeing accumulating snow Sunday
night is increasing as more model solutions trend slightly
westward, but higher than usual uncertainty remains in totals at
this time range.
  • Like 1
  • 100% 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted

3pm AFD from BOX

Quote 
KEY MESSAGE 2...Coastal low passes just SE of the Benchmark,
bringing 2-5 inches with localized areas of 6 inches, especially
in SE MA and RI.

An elongated shortwave trough stretching from the northern Great
Lakes down into the Gulf Coast will spin up a coastal low offshore,
passing just southeast of the benchmark. Guidance continues to come
into Better agreement on track with this low, but remains spread on
how far NW the QPF field extends.  Guidance generally ticked up
total QPF across the region with 1/2 to 3/4 inches across the Cape
and Islands, and a 1/4 to 1/2 inch along and south of the I-95
corridor.  How this translates into snowfall accumulation will
depend heavily on temperatures and mid-level forcing.  Temperatures
during this event will be marginal, with temperatures staying near
freezing inland and at or above freezing for the Cape and Islands.
This will impact snow totals as snow will melt and compress as it
falls. Even areas inland will see very wet and heavy snow.  Even
where temperatures are above freezing, still anticipating
accumulations for temps between 32-35F as strong mid-level forcing
will allow for precipitation to become heavy enough to drag down
cooler air and remain as snow rather than turning to rain.

The highest confidence in snow totals across the region is in SE MA
and into RI, where strong mid-level forcing and temperatures near or
below freezing will overlap.  Snow totals in this area will range
from 3-5 inches, with localized areas reaching 6 inches. While there
will be good forcing over Nantucket and Block Island, temperatures
will likely be too warm for significant accumulations, but a slushy
inch remains possible.  Across CT and into north-eastern MA, the mid-
level forcing is not quite as strong, but lower temperatures will
allow for 2-4 inches, with localized spots up to 5 inches.
Uncertainty is highest across NW MA, where a lack of mid-level
forcing and dry air will limit totals. Still could see 1-3 inches,
but if the low moves closer to the benchmark, these totals could
increase, and the advisory could be expanded NW.

Timing this system out, A band of snow showers associated with the
prefrontal wave moves into CT as early as 7 am, but most likely not
arriving until after 10 am.  Snow spreads north and east into the
rest of the region after the lunch hour.  Snow will initially start
light with rates of under half an inch per hour.  Heaviest snow
rates arrive later in the afternoon and into the early evening, with
rates between 1/2 inch and 1 inch per hour through 10 pm to
midnight.  Snow rates could exceed 1 to 1.5 inches per hour near the
Cape and Far SE MA if temperatures are able to cool below freezing.
Snow ends from west to east between 10 pm and 2 am, snow showers may
linger into Monday morning.  Breezy winds are expected Monday
afternoon behind the system, but given the wet and heavy nature of
the snow, we do not anticipate blowing snow impacts on Monday.

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Go Kart Mozart

Go Kart Mozart

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think ideally whatever comes up tomorrow morning continues through the afternoon to keep temps down. Models are disagreeing with that. You would think with the Gulf of Mexico open you’d have good moisture though. We shall see.

Speaking of the Gulf, radars down in Bama are lighting up way ahead of schedule.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Seem like w/ time, N&W of 495 is becoming the target max for Sunday.  Compared to 24 hr ago when we were worried about if the pcpn shield would get any further N&W than TAN!  Models are hurtin', global and mesoscale, recently.  Can't recall so many issues in the short range!

How we pray

  • 100% 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Love the disclaimer for the RRFS...lol

The RRFS A is a prototype NOAA run and not for decision making. It will post as available, and outages may occur. More RRFS details are available here.

They should have that disclaimer on all models lately.

  • Thanks 1
  • 100% 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
bristolri_wx

bristolri_wx

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Love the disclaimer for the RRFS...lol

The RRFS A is a prototype NOAA run and not for decision making. It will post as available, and outages may occur. More RRFS details are available here.

I don’t believe RRFS v1 is ever going into production. It’s based on FV3 which they found to be not great. There already is a second version of the RRFS v2 which will be based on MPAS which will likely end up the replacement for the NAM, NAM 3k, RAP, and HRRR…

https://gsl.noaa.gov/research/predictions

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, vortex95 said:

 

What's this rear weenie bonus convectivey-NORLUN type stuff at the end???  12z had it as well.  Nothing would surprise me given how odd this season is so far w/ local snow maxes!


 

hrrr3.png

what's the sounding like at that time  ... kind of has a norlun look to it but there's some cyclostrophic banded structure too so not entirely. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...