January 16-19th: Rolling the dice

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Yeah im not sure where the disconnect is.

 

This is a panel off the 12z GFS. Its snows, lightly, for nearly 8 hours tomorrow. This looks like far more than an inch.

Its not a major storm. But that is screaming 2-4 inches for eastern areas.

 

 

Surface temps are gonna be marginal. If precip comes down with intensity, temps will fall to 31-32. Otherwise it would be in the mid to upper 30s. The ratios are going to be shit, worse than 10-1.

[DDweatherman]

The snow west of 95 back to the 15/81 folks tomorrow is mainly fronto forcing based; not all that much dissimilar to today: need good jet/vorticity for this. The coastal isn’t having much influence. 

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

The snow west of 95 back to the 15/81 folks tomorrow is mainly fronto forcing based; not all that much dissimilar to today: need good jet/vorticity for this. The coastal isn’t having much influence. 

12z gfs is less out here but given low qpf to begin with, its mainly noise. Temps may be cold enough to maintain decent ratios west of the beltway though

[CAPE]

I think this event is almost entirely dependent on the upper level jet streak- how strong it is and exactly where the right rear entrance region is located. 

[Herb@MAWS]

Snow showers have let up, it looks like an official coating (have not measured), which is almost the same amount we had on the ground just before dawn today, before daylight melted what fell pre-dawn. 

I’ll be in Culebra, in the Puerto Rico islands, 17mi east of the eastern mainland north coast starting January 26. Encouraging short- and long-term “snow/frozen in the air” forecasts aside … you can be certain that it will snow here while I’m away — same thing happened last year and I missed what turned out to be the (ahem) “best” snow of the season. So I’ll live vicariously through u while I’m chillin’. 

Culebra Days 82-85
Mornings 72-75

Usually sunny, some rip current warning days are not unusual. A scattered +/- 15 min shower not unusual but NBD. Just depends on timing of stay there. It’s 90 at nearby airport as I type this. 

Maybe I’ll even provide an annoying temperature update(!) but in the meantime just focusing on the next 36 hours. Will need stickage reinforcements and replacements by tomorrow. Whitened grass becoming more greenish already. 

[Maestrobjwa]

12 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I think this event is almost entirely dependent on the upper level jet streak- how strong it is and exactly where the right rear entrance region is located. 

That more of a nowcast/0z tonight thing?

[paulythegun]

Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk

[T. August]

Just got home to measure - legit surprised to find .5” on the snowboard and everything else too.

[WxUSAF]

Euro and euroai for tomorrow?

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro and euroai for tomorrow?

Euro now likes places to our NE lol.

Cant use snow total map because of what it thought fell today, so this is pretty accurate for tomorrow.

[WxUSAF]

Thanks. Feels like 0.5-2” is a reasonable range for MBY.

[high risk]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro and euroai for tomorrow?

   About 1-1.5" for the Howard County crew with more along the Bay and a decent bit more for the Eastern Shore.

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Thanks. Feels like 0.5-2” is a reasonable range for MBY.

Same

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Thanks. Feels like 0.5-2” is a reasonable range for MBY.

I would go with that for my yard too, although most if not all guidance has at least an inch here. When dealing with such paltry amounts plus marginal temps and disparity among guidance on where the highest qpf will be, hard to be confident in more than an inch anywhere in our region really. 

[DDweatherman]

4 minutes ago, high risk said:

   About 1-1.5" for the Howard County crew with more along the Bay and a decent bit more for the Eastern Shore.

For reference, euro had basically nothing for these areas (<0.5”) at 0z. 6z was a bit better, but euro seems to still be catching up to the mesos and the Canadian of all models with the fronto/RER driven precip

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

For reference, euro had basically nothing for these areas (<0.5”) at 0z. 6z was a bit better, but euro seems to still be catching up to the mesos and the Canadian of all models with the fronto/RER driven precip

Yep, I’d lean more on the mesos and even radar as its more of a nowcast situation

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Yep, I’d lean more on the mesos and even radar as its more of a nowcast situation

Mesos were better today and there’s a clear discrepancy between 12z mesos and their parent globals 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Yep, I’d lean more on the mesos and even radar as its more of a nowcast situation

Ya also has basically nothing for the area that got 2-3” today too so I’ll keep eye on mesos 

[Kay]

32 minutes ago, T. August said:

Just got home to measure - legit surprised to find .5” on the snowboard and everything else too.

I just measured .5" too! Shocked to have measurable today.

And now...must switch my rooting to HoCo as I'm hanging with my dad there from later today through tomorrow. G'luck homie will look for your obs.

[CAPE]

Ended up with mostly sleet here mixed with rain. Actually can see a coating in the mulch, on the deck, and the roof. Temp is 35.

[WEATHER53]

Frederick house got solid 1.5” and Kemp Mill a dusting 

[WEATHER53]

There was like one model which indicated this last night just hours before the event

The set up for tomorrow is way different than recently.  We have low pressure off the coast and cold air that is largely being delivered from other low pressures up north with some support from a Nebraska high   Models are still stuck in the phase job  transfer forecasting mode so they are not in sync.  
I never abandoned the potential of this and a few others did not also but most were in a 10 day one foot fantasy thread.  Maybe we can get a good obs thread going for the upcoming .

[yoda]

Wakefield issuing WWAs

[yoda]

Just now, yoda said:

Wakefield issuing WWAs

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
134 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

VAZ064-075>078-521-522-180300-
/O.NEW.KAKQ.WW.Y.0001.260118T1500Z-260119T0000Z/
Caroline-Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Western
Essex-Eastern Essex-
134 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations up to two
  inches.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, eastern, and north central
  Virginia.

* WHEN...From 10 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The advisory may need to be expanded
  southward with future updates if the snow forecast continues to
  trend upward.

 

[yoda]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
134 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

MDZ021>025-180300-
/O.NEW.KAKQ.WW.Y.0001.260118T1500Z-260119T0300Z/
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches-
134 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations up to two
  inches.

* WHERE...Dorchester, Inland Worcester, the Maryland Beaches,
  Somerset, and Wicomico Counties.

* WHEN...From 10 AM to 10 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The advisory may need to be expanded
  southward with future updates if the snow forecast continues to
  trend upward.

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Wakefield issuing WWAs

Kinda expect LWX to shoot out some WWAs for at least I-95&east the EPS being pretty aggressive on the latest run 

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Kinda expect LWX to shoot out some WWAs for at least I-95&east the EPS being pretty aggressive on the latest run 

love how the ens mean hooks the 1.5+ back into the DMV. Could be another potential overperformer

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Seems like the euro folded like a cheap suit to the GFS/rgem/ai models which had this idea earlier. 

[NVAwx]

9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Kinda expect LWX to shoot out some WWAs for at least I-95&east the EPS being pretty aggressive on the latest run 

Yep their point and clicks updated to give 1-2" to me. Next map should show the same. 

[NorthArlington101]

LWX update: