January 16-18th: Rolling the dice

[ravensrule]

Just now, Terpeast said:

I guess they just disregarded or didn’t even check the latest models that went warmer and cut back on snow accums. Or maybe they didn’t think the new runs were correct.

Lol, i highly doubt that they didn’t check. 

[yoda]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

I guess they just disregarded or didn’t even check the latest models that went warmer and cut back on snow accums. Or maybe they didn’t think the new runs were correct.

Or maybe they are trying to cover in case what happened this morning happens again tomorrow?

[Terpeast]

Just now, yoda said:

Or maybe they are trying to cover in case what happened this morning happens again tomorrow?

Got a point there. This mornings WWAs came a little late for northern MD

[nj2va]

LWX playing catch up is usually better vs opposite.  

28 and alternating between SN/SN-.  Our fun out here in the mountains will be for the next few hours until the coastal forms and takes over…I’m hoping the WWA verifies for DC/etc.

[TSSN+]

Radar in WV looking decent. Think favored spots in NE MD and my area will do ok. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Rare pictures of me hiking with sun shining!

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Rare pictures of me hiking with sun shining!

Nice. Where?

[SnowenOutThere]

39 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Nice. Where?

Cow pasture trail in cranberry wilderness WV. Absolutely beautiful country out there. Took 64 westbound on the way there and then punched through the mountains on the way back both took a little over 2 hours and 30 minutes. I think it might be one of my favorite spots as the trail I did was in a frost hollow which gave the lower parts/marsh a near tundra feel which is reflected in its vegetation. I plan to return there to hike some other trails hopefully this winter though no matter what I plan to revisit the trail I did in all 4 seasons. I also ran into a nice local feller who showed me the secrets of “trees on stilts” in the woods with his two huskies trailing as companions. Also had the luxury of sun which was unexpected but welcome! Not sure which tools to use to forecast for that microclimate of the ridge-line because they all seem to be consistently wrong. Frankly the whole microclimate astounds me as even 6 miles out from the trailhead it’ll be spotty snow otg before climbing into 3-4+ inches while even hiking another 3 miles into the woods you reach 6+! I’ll post some more pictures tomorrow. 

[high risk]

One thing to watch for later today:   The NAM and RGEM end the event by mid or late morning for everyone west of the Bay, while the GFS and some HRRR cycles have precip ending by late morning but then bring another round of snow for DC and points east later in the afternoon.   

[Jebman]

22 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Cow pasture trail in cranberry wilderness WV. Absolutely beautiful country out there. Took 64 westbound on the way there and then punched through the mountains on the way back both took a little over 2 hours and 30 minutes. I think it might be one of my favorite spots as the trail I did was in a frost hollow which gave the lower parts/marsh a near tundra feel which is reflected in its vegetation. I plan to return there to hike some other trails hopefully this winter though no matter what I plan to revisit the trail I did in all 4 seasons. I also ran into a nice local feller who showed me the secrets of “trees on stilts” in the woods with his two huskies trailing as companions. Also had the luxury of sun which was unexpected but welcome! Not sure which tools to use to forecast for that microclimate of the ridge-line because they all seem to be consistently wrong. Frankly the whole microclimate astounds me as even 6 miles out from the trailhead it’ll be spotty snow otg before climbing into 3-4+ inches while even hiking another 3 miles into the woods you reach 6+! I’ll post some more pictures tomorrow. 

I am frackin' JEALOUS!

[Amped]

31 and we've got some zr and pingers

[WEATHER53]

1:45am update.  The darker green band north along beltway was wet snow here 

[Whitecheddar]

Sprinkles in hagerstown.

[WVclimo]

Light snow.  All non-paved surfaces are covered.  32°.

[mitchnick]

Woke up 20 minutes ago and the sky is filled with fatties quickly accumulating.

[WVclimo]

Snow has ended.  0.1”

Fourth “measurable” snow of the season.  All in the pre-dawn hours.

[mitchnick]

I'm right on the western edge of better stuff. Mappy will do much better. The Nam replacement was showing this best if I rrcall.

[MN Transplant]

Rain

[mitchnick]

Just lt snow now. There's a heavy band incoming but it'll just clip me or miss altogether. Again, to my east will get hit. I suspect Mappy should get another 2"+ out of this. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

Absolutely nothing here.

[dailylurker]

4 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Absolutely nothing here.

I have an advisory for 34 and rain. This winter sucks lol

[GreyHat]

4 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Absolutely nothing here.

Yep 36F rain .04" so far

[Herb@MAWS]

Sunday 5:45am Columbia 33.8° rain

(overnight low 29.7°)

[goodwidp]

A few flakes appear to be mixing in, but otherwise 98% cold rain in central Baltimore county. Good times. 

[ge0]

Got a dusting here. 33

[wasnow215]

5 hours ago, high risk said:

One thing to watch for later today:   The NAM and RGEM end the event by mid or late morning for everyone west of the Bay, while the GFS and some HRRR cycles have precip ending by late morning but then bring another round of snow for DC and points east later in the afternoon.   

If it's been talked about I'm sorry. But it seems we are back to Euro clearly being GFS's "daddy" again, for more than a year now.  Here we are at 6z runs and Euro continues to show very little snow for Central Va and mostly rain, while GFS brings 1-2" of snow later this afternoon/evening.. I'm thinking Euro will hold again but we shall see.

[RevWarReenactor]

No one has a clue what’s going to happen with this. It’s hilarious. The forecasts are all over the place. 

 

 

[WxUSAF]

Cold rain 

[HighStakes]

Moderate/heavy snow.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I've been mostly rain. A few flakes are trying to mix in.