January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

But did the AI models? They might have adjusted slightly but I remember them, especially Euro AI, hardly budging.

This setup is much different. Far more boom bust potential and complex progression than the recent storm. Im not saying I think a boom is likely but the chance of significance shifts in any op/ens suite is FAR greater than the last storm. This is not a 2k mile moisture plume from a typical shortwave 

[overcautionisbad]

2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

I want to be back in if you guys open up the door for me… but remember when NC weenies put all there hopes and dreams in the GFS when it was the last model for hope for them? That’s where I’m struggling here. But the west trend over the last several runs is interesting 

Yeah, but I think the GFS jumped back in forth last week instead of continuing to trend one way

[SnowGolfBro]

We want to be in/close to the bullseye on Thursday and Friday. Right now seeing a big storm close by inside 100 hours is pretty awesome and is a big part of the reason we do what we do. Keep hope alive!

[peribonca]

7 minutes ago, Leaking Gut said:

Wish we could see a median instead of a mean

[Buddy1987]

Nothing like getting busy only to come back to 145 unread posts.. not to mention some of them have me ROLLING over here with the commentary. 

[Eskimo Joe]

6 minutes ago, soadforecasterx said:

Trend on GFSai

100 miles west and we score. We're so close.

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, peribonca said:

Wish we could see a median instead of a mean

Extrapolate:

[Keith1174]

48 minutes ago, Amped said:

Takes almost 24 hours to get from Raleigh to DC

lol, what a sharp gradient, 8" in harford county, 20" middle eastern shore, and 40" lower eastern short

[Amped]

5 minutes ago, DaleCityDave said:

The trend is our friend!

The gfs, aigfs and icon trends are. The cmc, uknet ,and euro trends are not.

[Nomz]

Just now, Amped said:

The gfs, aigfs and icon trends are. The cmc, uknet ,and euro trends are not.

Not exactly the models I want in my foxhole 

[87storms]

Guys, I’m in Pi Planning today…stop distracting me by posting potential stemwinder nor’easters that have no mixing issues inland.

[Climate175]

8 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

I believe the word is “cluster”. Pretty strong signal for a deepening lie around the benchmark.

You are 100% correct!

[StormyClearweather]

For those interested. 

[Terpeast]

6 minutes ago, peribonca said:

Wish we could see a median instead of a mean

The clustering of sfc low positions gives better info than median, while median is better for looking at scalar variables like temps/QPF/snowfall amounts. 

You can see lots of western clustering to the left of the mean low

[EHoffman]

2 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

For those interested. 

Lots of big hits in there.

[The Dude]

26 minutes ago, IronTy said:

On Saturday we just need the whole board to go outside and point their vacuum cleaners east and turn them on full blast.  We can pull it in.  

[batmanbrad]

1 minute ago, The Dude said:

this kinda reminds me of the movie Spaceballs...  suck, suck, suck!

[AlexD1990]

1 minute ago, batmanbrad said:

this kinda reminds me of the movie Spaceballs...  suck, suck, suck!

[North Balti Zen]

I am just glad one of the globals is still a hit. Makes each model run more interesting. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

Anyone got a light? 

[Bob Chill]

Gefs trend. 

 

[LeesburgWx]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Gefs trend. 

 

How many more ticks do we realistically need? 1? 2? 3?

[Scraff]

This one is fun. I see a few of my friends in here.   
 

 

[Terpeast]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Gefs trend. 

 

Crazy how GEFS and EPS are trending in opposite directions. We don't usually see that.

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Anyone got a light? 

Winning. Though would have changed smoking causes weenie anguish haha 

[stormtracker]

Here we go.  May the odds be in our favor.   Euro has begun

[Bob Chill]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Crazy how GEFS and EPS are trending in opposite directions. We don't usually see that.

This is a touchy setup to put it lightly. Will be a bit of a gut punch if the euro brothers whiff/deteriorate. 

[peribonca]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Here we go.  May the odds be in our favor.   Euro has begun

Bring it home ST

[TSSN+]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Here we go.  May the odds be in our favor.   Euro has begun

Out to hour 6, we are cooked. Well that was fast 

[Alfoman]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Gefs trend. 

 

GFS first taketh and wrongeth, then GFS giveth