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January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowfan
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1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

But did the AI models? They might have adjusted slightly but I remember them, especially Euro AI, hardly budging.

This setup is much different. Far more boom bust potential and complex progression than the recent storm. Im not saying I think a boom is likely but the chance of significance shifts in any op/ens suite is FAR greater than the last storm. This is not a 2k mile moisture plume from a typical shortwave 

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2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

I want to be back in if you guys open up the door for me… but remember when NC weenies put all there hopes and dreams in the GFS when it was the last model for hope for them? That’s where I’m struggling here. But the west trend over the last several runs is interesting 

Yeah, but I think the GFS jumped back in forth last week instead of continuing to trend one way

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6 minutes ago, peribonca said:

Wish we could see a median instead of a mean

The clustering of sfc low positions gives better info than median, while median is better for looking at scalar variables like temps/QPF/snowfall amounts. 

You can see lots of western clustering to the left of the mean low

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