January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Sey-Mour Snow]

21 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

wonder if we get some light snow Saturday that never really stops, light flurries and snizzle until what ever shows up on Sunday...days and days of yore.....

rev is that you? 

[Spanks45]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

rev is that you? 

Just trying to stay positive as we are damp and cold outside today....anything to stay away from brown glaciers later on. Saturday looks decent for us, for now at least. Would love to grab 1-3, before Sunday

[weatherwiz]

16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

well, remember our discussion yesterday ... 

get the v trajectory S, huh     

Yup!

[SJonesWX]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Feb 13th 2016 diamond dust then synoptic 

where is this thermometer placed, in the Upside Down?

[40/70 Benchmark]

 

[The 4 Seasons]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Told you guys last week this 18-19th deal was the one to watch-

ive been saying the same as well.

Apparently warm kitty started a thread for that but i could have swore it was for 1-15/16 and he changed the title to 18/19

[weathafella]

34 minutes ago, dendrite said:

They had the nicknames Crazy Uncle and Dr No for a reason.

I own the crazy uncle copyright 

[The 4 Seasons]

poor kitty got his thread locked, don't think ive seen that happen before 

[Kitz Craver]

Yeah, GFS is becoming Canadian-esque with all of the virtual snow we have been shoveling. 

[MaineJayhawk]

3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

poor kitty got his thread locked, don't think ive seen that happen before 

Would be great if he got locked in there with it

[weathafella]

Looks like it’s Dr Hell No!

[Typhoon Tip]

Could it be onto something?  sure -

However ... sufficed it is to say, this type of solution does not have a lot of support from much else at this time - haven't seen the 12z Euro just yet.  

Now, ... philosophically and based upon a-priori approach, whenever you see a compact system moving so fast, at 100+ hours ... it's like taking a normal pattern storm relationship at D7.5 error, and applying it to the 4.5 day window.   That doesn't diminish the need/desire to monitor the evolution on future guidance, nor dismiss it.   Much like what's going on tomorrow and Friday with the snow storm along the ST L...  there's actually a storm on these date in the local neighborhood - obviously, having failed to place that in our regional back yard doesn't diminish that reality, nor that the amplification window produced. 

[MJO812]

Further east than 6z and all of the other models. Kicker is also faster than other models.

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Looks like it’s Dr Hell No!

About as predictable as the sun rising.

I would have taken slight improvement but of course it goes in the other direction 

[dryslot]

Dr Nogo.

[dryslot]

Cue the this is not the same Euro like it use to be post.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, dryslot said:

Cue the this is not the same Euro like it use to be post.

I know that’s coming from a certain poster 

[Spanks45]

Euro looks like garbage, good stuff....now if this was reversed, Euro was showing a snowstorm and all the others were OTS, guess which way it would go? Consensus doesn't even matter anymore, the model that shows the lowest chance of snowfall ends up verifying in the end. Can't make this stuff up

[8611Blizz]

10 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said:

Would be great if he got locked in there with it

 

[DavisStraight]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That sounds about right, Will.

Would be pretty funny to go from gloom and doom to a snowy Saturday as the warm up act for a significant snow Sunday/Monday. With Arctic cold lurking next week. That would be quite the reversal. 

A couple of weeks of deep winter in the heart of winter would be awesome.

[Snowcrazed71]

Guess we need to see what happens later on today and tonight. Nothing seems to be consistent lately

[mreaves]

34 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I own the crazy uncle copyright 

Wasn't drunk part of it too?

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Wasn't drunk part of it too?

Yeah the full description was “the crazy drunk uncle” but we all just shortened it to crazy uncle. Jerry def came up with the name at least 15 years ago…I think it was late 2000s winters. 

[weathafella]

9 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Wasn't drunk part of it too?

No.  It was in reference to a family’s crazy uncle at thanksgiving who happens to be drunk but that piece was never in the name.  

[weatherwiz]

Sick

One of my classes this semester, Advanced Forecasting Techniques will cover winter weather forecasting including long range/seasonal forecasting and teleconnections  

[cleetussnow]

28 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Sick

One of my classes this semester, Advanced Forecasting Techniques will cover winter weather forecasting including long range/seasonal forecasting and teleconnections  

Lesson 1. GFS is trash

Lesson 2.  Review lesson 1

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I know that’s coming from a certain poster 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Nope lol. Maybe it’s(Euro)right..and zero snow.  

[dryslot]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Nope lol. Maybe it’s(Euro)right..and zero snow.  

I'm hedging along that route, Going to need something more to change my mind about anything more widespread, Eastern areas have a shot though.

[Snowcrazed71]

So for what I'm reading so far, seems like everyone is on the Euro camp and trash the GFS.